2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WxWatcher007]

Still pretty active on Euro AI Ens. Waiting to see GDM. 

[WxWatcher007]

GDM has nothing! Pretty sensitive setup it seems. 

[Newman]

Northeastern Gulf of America:

An area of low pressure is expected to form during the weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Subsequent slow development of this system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and or near the southeastern coast of the United States by early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Newman]

The trough in the east should quickly pull whatever develops down here northward. Maybe 1-1.5 days over water in the northeastern Gulf

[Windspeed]

Potential surface disturbance in the NE GOM is still hinted by ensembles. But realistically, any surface low would need steering currents to remain weak to gain development time and any potential vorticity to resolve away from land for something substantial to form.

[GaWx]

31 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Potential surface disturbance in the NE GOM is still hinted by ensembles. But realistically, any surface low would need steering currents to remain weak to gain development time and any potential vorticity to resolve away from land for something substantial to form.

This could be the best case scenario from a helping reduce the SE drought perspective. A not too strong TC that provides beneficial rains (hopefully not flooding obviously).

[GaWx]

I just noticed that the 0Z UKMET has a NE Gulf TD from this on Sunday and a TS offshore the SE US on Tue:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 27.8N 83.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 108 27.8N 83.1W 1011 33
0000UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.5N 83.2W 1007 26
1200UTC 20.07.2026 132 29.2N 82.1W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 144 30.2N 81.2W 1007 32
1200UTC 21.07.2026 156 32.2N 79.1W 1002 40
0000UTC 22.07.2026 168 34.7N 75.5W 1000 47