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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino


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 Pretty solid -SOIs all due to very low Tahiti SLP as Darwin is also a bit BN:

16 May 2026 1008.21 1009.70 -23.11 -7.40 -0.93
15 May 2026 1009.15 1010.00 -18.21 -6.36 -0.50
14 May 2026 1009.81 1010.30 -15.45 -5.70 -0.07
13 May 2026 1010.40 1010.50 -12.47
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21 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^The main correlation is in the NE Pacific and it doesn't look anything like it through the end of May. In June and July the ENSO-500mb correlation is weaker, but May is usually a pretty strong month, even with developing El Nino's. 

The developing El Niño isn’t the only thing going on now. The early month pattern with the more +PNA was closer to what we typically see with the May correlation. But this coming heatwave is more related to the MJO 4-6 convection pumping the Southeast ridge. The +30C wam pool extends all the way back to the IO. 

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