2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[GaWx]

On 5/2/2026 at 1:40 PM, GaWx said:

 Based on OISST, Monday’s weekly RONI equivalent for this week averaged out should be warmer than the +0.2 of last week. I’m leaning to +0.4 but +0.5 is possible. Today’s RONI equivalent is ~+0.5-+0.6:

 

 

My leaning of the weekly relative 3.4 going up from +0.2 in last week’s release to +0.4 in today’s turned out to be what happened for its 4th rise in a row. Nino 1+2 cooled again (by 0.2) to +0.7. Nino 3, like Nino 3.4, rose for the 4th week in a row to +0.5. Nino 4 was unchanged at +0.5. So far, it’s not behaving as if it is headed to strongly E based this autumn. Cansips has been suggesting central to W based with E (1+2 to 3) not as warm as C to W (3.4 to 4), but we’ll see as there’s a long way to go:

Date (avg for wk centered on)………………....1+2………..3………..3.4………..4

 01APR2026         0.8       -0.3       -0.3        0.2
 08APR2026         1.1       -0.1       -0.2        0.3
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6
 22APR2026         0.9        0.3        0.2        0.5
 29APR2026         0.7        0.5        0.4        0.5

 ——————-

 The latest SSTa charts suggest a pause, which is long overdue, MAY finally be occurring temporarily:

 

[snowman19]

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Pretty impressive to see the upper ocean heat anomalies this week higher than at any point during the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 events. 
 

 

I would like to see how this actually translates to surface readout coming up.

[GaWx]

 The April and FMA relative and non-relative have just been released and they suggest the most recently calculated differential is ~0.6C:

1. FMA:

ONI +0.11

RONI -0.48

0.59 diff vs 0.56 diff. JFM

 

2. April alone:

ONI +0.36

RONI -0.24

0.60 diff. vs 0.55 in March

[PhiEaglesfan712]

April PDO -1.48 (actually lower than March's -1.43 PDO). This is a huge surprise, especially if we're heading towards a super el nino.

1972 (-1.70), 2009 (-2.23), and 2023 (-3.08) are the only strong/super el ninos that had a lower PDO in April. 

1972 and 2023, of course, stayed negative, while 2009 went towards a neutral PDO.

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

April PDO -1.48 (actually lower than March's -1.43 PDO). This is a huge surprise, especially if we're heading towards a super el nino.

1972 (-1.70), 2009 (-2.23), and 2023 (-3.08) are the only strong/super el ninos that had a lower PDO in April. 

1972 and 2023, of course, stayed negative, while 2009 went towards a neutral PDO.

The slight lowering from March does though jibe with the slight downward trend of these WCS dailies: