2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

2015-2016 was unique that it combined with the MJO 6 getting the greatest absolute temperatures and departures all the way to the East Coast. 

That is a good point....like @LakePaste25said, maybe it just means the extreme anomalies are more relegated to the nation's mid-section.

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1 hour ago, jconsor said:

Having a weak stratospheric PV in Nov is quite uncharacteristic of a strong El Nino:

https://x.com/rjameswx/status/2115111708884869209

I'm surprised that 1963 and 2002 are there.

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Traditional ONI: almost +3.5C RONI: +2.9C The EURO has been dead balls accurate with this event. The over +4C peak it shows for December is not only believable, it’s very likely. Also, the subsurface warming continues. My final call is a December peak of +4.0C - +4.1C (traditional ONI) and +3.5C - +3.6C (RONI). I think the subsurface peaks next month at +13C

Maybe the EURO is doing better than the guidance continuously underestimating El Niño, but it looks like it's been overshooting to me.

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2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

My peak of +3.2-3.7 RONI and +3.7-4.2 ONI prediction I made a couple of months ago is looking alright. Might have even gone a little too low. 

My latest call as of Latter September was peak RONI between 3 and 3.2 and 3.4 to 3.6 for ONI during NDJ. One final assessment next week.