2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[raindancewx]

October is verifying ~10F warmer than the Canadian forecast on Sept 30 in parts of the South so far. I'd be wary of the outlooks for Dec-Mar. They still have no skill.

CPC has the South warm in the 6-10 and 8-14 at high confidence - so pretty big bust.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just not a very good model. 

I'm surprised that you can have knowledge some index patterns, analog correlations and such and outperform seasonal models. An example is every seasonal showing -100 to -200dm +PNA in the N. Pacific this Winter. Just lazy ENSO input

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Way out there but the sub seasonals begin to show more of a cool season Nino H5 pattern in November. 

 

 

The CFS, which is not a very good model, is showing -10dm Days 36-42 in the North Pacific in November. Come on, that's how far you had to go to see some semblance of effect for the strongest El Nino on record? lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Models have an Aleutian low, and somewhat strong Western Canada ridge, +PNA pattern Hrs 324-384. Let's see if it holds, last time they showed a big AL for 3 days from this range and it didn't verify. 

Edit: 0z weakened the pattern

[snowman19]

[sebastiaan1973]

The latest Glosea6.