2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[George BM]

25 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Cansips on TT (not all products yet)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026100100&fh=0

At first glance on TT the Cansips have peak SST anomalies even warmer for Nov/Dec generally between 125-140W. Peak SSTAs are a little further east compared to last month but still pretty far west.

[so_whats_happening]

15 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

This plot is not consistent with 2 m temperature being 2 C below the much older 1958 to 2002 climatology all summer. This area is all ocean/ice. 

This was from the temp website

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/documentation/arctic_mean_temp_data_explanation_newest.pdf

I use 925mb specifically to not get temperature but more so to see the pattern associated to this region in specific thus I will continue to use 925mb as a better representation of what is going on. This was a retention year in that the overall atmospheric pattern was on the colder side. Unfortunately I don't think we will get fairly accurate measurements of the lowest 1000' or so in this region due to the complex nature involved with sea ice/ oceanic exchange issues with the lower atmsophere. You will read this within the first paragraph as to the issues involved. Another factor is the slushification that is taking place throws another wrench into getting an accurate surface reading.

2006 and 2013 were also solid retention years. The time period of roughly mid April to end of June will continue to be an  extremely important time to gauge how the melt season will go. 

There is a glaring difference when comparing ERA5 of 2013 to 2026 2m temps.

[mitchnick]

@40/70 Benchmark

Cansips D-M