2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh, that looks like a smoking gun for CC adaptation in that temperature outlook. 

Not sure ... is that a straight model to publication? - or is it modified by forecaster(s) opinion en route to the public  

Because it looks damn well like they took the canonical linear El Nino correlation and then just moved it warmer by a click or two.   So instead of warm north cool south, you end up with very warm north and more neutral/average S.  

If. so... can't see I blame them.  I mean, we play this head game in here as responsible weather and climate minded people, where we are not deniers about CC ... we just play some avoidance and hedge away from it meaning warmer snow challenging winters ...haha.  At least a reticence to do so.  Anywho they don't have that luxury.  They necessarily need to be as close to accurate as they can be. 

[bluewave]

Significantly warmer summer across the CONUS than 2023, 2015, and 1997. 
 

 

[GaWx]

 The 10 day/40 run CFSv2 mean for Feb has gone from this near coldest on record of CFSv2 forecasts from SE to C Plains and cold overall much of US (Aug 7-16 runs):

 

To this just 4 days later (Aug 11-20 runs): still cold esp SE to S Plains but not nearly as cold there with 2-5F BN instead of 5-8F BN and also not as cold most other areas of the C to E US:

 

I figured that because I posted the extremely cold maps that I need to post those not as cold in the spirit of objectivity as opposed to just posting the runs I like the most.

I’ll continue to follow because it’s fun/interesting even though the CFSv2 forecast value is quite limited for 6 months out (more for entertainment):