2026-2027 El Nino

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

it is the accuracy of the record keeping from back then.  It isn't a lie, but most likely not accurate.  It could have even been more snow, but I'd question it no matter what.

Looks like good, sound records to me. The snowfall and liquid equivalents make sense.

[snowman19]

Big signal for a strong +IOD development this summer, which will constructively interfere with El Niño

[LakePaste25]

I imagine summer in the east will be on the milder, wetter, and more humid side 

[snowman19]

If (IF) this is correct, that is insane for a 13 models/637 member ensemble mean for September, at +2.2C, since the El Niño will still be strengthening at that point. They normally peak in November or December….
 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If (IF) this is correct, that is insane for a 13 models/637 member ensemble mean for September, at +2.2C, since the El Niño will still be strengthening at that point. They normally peak in November or December….
 

UKMET has been one of the better models in recent years. It’s going ~+2.05 for Sep and would likely rise a few more tenths from there. Then take off ~0.5 to convert to RONI. So, ~+1.5-1.6 C RONI in Sept and rising per UKMET.

 Euro ONI is just over +2.2 in Sept and rising, but it has tended to verify too warm although not as much warm bias verified on average in actual El Niños.

 This all suggests to me a mid to high grade strong RONI peak as of now. I’ll continue to update.