2026-2027 El Nino

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are currently on track for a very strong event potentially recording an ONI of +2.0 or greater like we recently experienced in 23-24 based on current OHC and WWB intensity unless it’s interrupted by EWBs next few months.

The biggest factor will be getting the WWBs to continue through June in order for the subsurface El Niño signal to become fully established at the surface.

We can remember the strong EWB in June 2014 which halted the El Niño development when the models had been forecasting +2.0 for 2014-2015. It’s funny how we eventually got the super El Niño a year later. So it was delayed but not denied. 

That was the last time that the models forecast a +2.0 event that didn’t verify. So unless this process gets derailed by EWBs next few months, there won’t be anything to slow the development going forward.

We will need about 3 more months of observations to know if this one can reach its top potential. 
 

https://news.yale.edu/2016/02/08/new-insights-stalled-el-ni-o-2014

 

Yea, the only El Niño in the last 45+ years even remotely comparable to this one is 1997-98. Even the 1982-83 and 2015-16 Nino’s weren’t this far advanced in March. If those twin TC’s verify next week, and that’s starting to look likely, IMO, this is a “high-end” strong El Niño at minimum with prospects for a super event going up a lot…..

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is interesting.. this is March before a later in the year El Nino. Nice south-based +PDO orientation in the N. Pacific. 

Nino 4 also starts warming early, which we are seeing now

Could be basin-wide

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Let's see how this plays out. Imo, it's amping Nino 3/3.4 vs the far east

[mitchnick]

The Stormsurf link that I included in my post the other day has just added CFS2 Relative Nino plumes to its links, both raw and bias corrected. They are a little past half way down. Updated daily, they'll at least give us trends, which should make for a nice roller coaster ride over the next 9 or 10 months. Lol

https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

[michsnowfreak]

On 3/27/2026 at 9:57 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought I recall you posting something to the effect of a "typical front-loaded La Nina winter"? Perhaps I'm mistaken.

Yea, I mixed up February and March, but other than that...one of my better efforts in the aggregate.

This wasn't a typical la nina at all, but when looking at the season as a whole, it definitely was front-mid loaded here. It was great to have plenty of snow/snowcover right at kickoff during the coldest, darkest days. But I could've used one more snowstorm in late Feb/Mar, sun angle be damned.

[michsnowfreak]

On 3/27/2026 at 9:38 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I know, I'm not looking forward to the 1,000 posts about how "everything's warming in this new climate"

Neither am I. And after 2 cold winters (even though the cold surely would've been colder if this was 15+ years ago) its bound to be at a fever pitch.