2026 Foothills thread

[lilj4425]

The latest GFS looks really good.

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

The latest GFS looks really good.

Trended stronger with the ULL. We need it as strong as we can to maximize forcing and spin up that meso low

[wncsnow]

Best GFS run of the entire storm for us leeside folks

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, strongwxnc said:

Got a link?

 

 

 

https://x.com/gmengel/status/2017233840603811898?s=46

[wncsnow]

Another short range gets juicier! 

[strongwxnc]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Another short range gets juicier! 

 

RAP has a later start time also for MBY. 4am

[BooneWX]

I just think that meso is going to cook. I could be wrong but I think that’s finally starting to reflect in modeling.

[wncsnow]

lovely Euro run. Someone near @strongwxncis getting 10+ out of this 

[strongwxnc]

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

lovely Euro run. Someone near @strongwxncis getting 10+ out of this 

Got that strip through the SSE side of my county. Im like 5 miles to the N of it. 

[calculus1]

Absolutely loved that ECMWF run! Wowza! I love having the ECMWF in our corner for once. That is so rare. Usually, we are going the other way. Let's go!!

[WXNewton]

Can't ask for more than this guys! Pretty much all 12z global models give us 6"+, Lets GO!!

 

[wncsnow]

 SREF juiced up for us too. Could be a big NAM run coming. 

[wncsnow]

GSP lowered totals a bit, I do think they are playing catch up a little with the lower overnight trends vs the higher trends today. I expect them to bump it back up later. 

[CheoahBald1]

Super frustrating they rely on the NBM so much, especially when the EURO has been so consistent for days


.

[strongwxnc]

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GSP lowered totals a bit, I do think they are playing catch up a little with the lower overnight trends vs the higher trends today. I expect them to bump it back up later. 

Quote

The 06Z ECMWF and GFS depict a mesolow developing over northeast
Georgia and tracking southeastward across the South Carolina Upstate
on Saturday, but the 06z NAM shows the mesolow developing farther
north and east, just on the edge the GSP forecast area. Depending on
where exactly this mesolow develops and tracks on Saturday is one of
the main forecast challenges.

From the updated AFD at 1:53. Working off the 06 runs as stated. 

[wncsnow]

Just now, strongwxnc said:

From the updated AFD at 1:53. Working off the 06 runs as stated. 

It's a bit concerning they give the NAM that much weight

[strongwxnc]

Just now, wncsnow said:

It's a bit concerning they give the NAM that much weight

My brain is mush after the last two weeks. Ready for go time.

[Duncana]

https://x.com/wxbrad/status/2017299716090855453

Are we screwed here in the foothills don't like the sound of that where I'm at in Burke county.

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, Duncana said:

https://x.com/wxbrad/status/2017299716090855453

Are we screwed here in the foothills don't like the sound of that where I'm at in Burke county.

I think we are good as long as the ULL tracks where its progged to and the meso low delivers. Father NE towards the Triad has the best shot of dry air IMO. 

[wncsnow]

Best HRRR run so far

[BooneWX]

Amazing how much the deck has thickened in the past hour

[strongwxnc]

Our little guy coming down out of the Dakota's .

[wncsnow]

[wncsnow]

5 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Amazing how much the deck has thickened in the past hour

Milky sun in Asheville

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

LAWD

[BooneWX]

My soul is a bit crushed yall, not gonna lie. My toddler has come down with some sort of virus. Shes by far the most sick she’s ever been. Luckily, she’s negative for the big 3 (rsv, flu and covid) but man am I bummed. She loves snow and I really wanted to take her out. 

[wncsnow]

Its quite interesting noticing the same precip maximums as the meso low snow that forms in 2003. Obviously that was more of a strong clipper but this could have the same footprint but with more widespread totals. I could see someone getting 12-15" out of this in a small area. 

[strongwxnc]

Its quite interesting noticing the same precip maximums as the meso low snow that forms in 2003. Obviously that was more of a strong clipper but this could have the same footprint but with more widespread totals. I could see someone getting 12-15" out of this in a small area. 

This will
Also be colder correct?



.

[BooneWX]

The ratios for this could be absolutely stupid. I thought the ceiling was 20:1 but I may be wrong. It might be possible to pull off 25 or 30:1 at the peak.