Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

I hope I'm wrong but if it doesn't frost some this weekend, it looks like Halloween or early November for frost for most of NC. 

Hot and dry winter.

[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Hot and dry winter.

That would be a shocker but you never know around these parts. The next 2 weeks are a welcome drying out if El Nino really kicks up the STJ. Average first frost used to be between October 1-15 r here until about 2000. Since then its closer to October 24. 

[Met1985]

35 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

That would be a shocker but you never know around these parts. The next 2 weeks are a welcome drying out if El Nino really kicks up the STJ. Average first frost used to be between October 1-15 r here until about 2000. Since then its closer to October 24. 

Extreme record breaking El Nino. Everything is on the table. There just may be too much hot air from the ocean that floods the continent except for the northern part of the country.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Extreme record breaking El Nino. Everything is on the table. There just may be too much hot air from the ocean that floods the continent except for the northern part of the country.

Extreme hot air over the ocean supercharges evaporation leading to cloud cover and moisture downstream. Both of those would = wet and cooler weather for the south. I just  don’t see an extreme EN leading to hot and dry conditions.