Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[Rd9108]

Gun to my head this just misses south with the highest amounts. Its only tuesday and a slow northern creep has happened so I guess we shall see what happens. If we were in the bullseye we would be sweating knowing this would wind up in Youngstown or Cleveland. Atleast we are tracking a bigger storm again. Now we wait for the 12z models. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Gun to my head this just misses south with the highest amounts. Its only tuesday and a slow northern creep has happened so I guess we shall see what happens. If we were in the bullseye we would be sweating knowing this would wind up in Youngstown or Cleveland. Atleast we are tracking a bigger storm again. Now we wait for the 12z models. 

I agree, I think we are approaching the ceiling for how far north it can come, being in the bullseye would take significant changes. The changes in the handling of the phasing with the southern stream shortwave last night were what we wanted to see though, and as long as that continues, and we see some relaxation in the confluence at least we won't be totally shut out.

[colonel717]

21 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Gun to my head this just misses south with the highest amounts. Its only tuesday and a slow northern creep has happened so I guess we shall see what happens. If we were in the bullseye we would be sweating knowing this would wind up in Youngstown or Cleveland. Atleast we are tracking a bigger storm again. Now we wait for the 12z models. 

Yea, sensing the same. I think this is 6-12 due to high ratios for us while those to our south and east are 1-2 ft+. But we do still have time. There was a lot of north movement esp by GFS and feel that may halt today. But then I think closer to weekend we may see another push north. 

[Mailman]

The ICON, for you know what and giggles.

 

[colonel717]

5 minutes ago, Mailman said:

The ICON, for you know what and giggles.

 

 

Just minor changes...

 

[colonel717]

GFS not on board, as well as AI version way south.

[Rd9108]

2 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

GFS not on board, as well as AI version way south.

Lol gfs is terrible but concerning off course. Come on Canadian!

[colonel717]

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Lol gfs is terrible but concerning off course. Come on Canadian!

looks worse early on. Midrange model mayhem...

[Rd9108]

2 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

looks worse early on. Midrange model mayhem...

To be expected. Still time its only tuesday. 

[colonel717]

15 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

To be expected. Still time its only tuesday. 

Its south but still a decent hit due to ratios.  Actually turns out better as run finished 13-14 inches 

We have until late tomorrow when storm comes ashore.

[Mailman]

Just a foot area-wide on the Canadian.

[jwilson]

I was reticent to share my thoughts on the upcoming system, because up until recently there had been a couple different "schools of thought," and even within those there are differential dynamics at play, like where the boundary sets, how cold is it, etc.  It was also setting up outside of normal confidence windows (7-to-10 days).  It all had to do with the ejection of the energy in the southwest.  Some models would kick the energy out under the confluence and suppress it or shear it apart.  Some models would hold and consolidate the energy to create something more akin to a SWFE (southwest flow event).

We're seeing a lot more acceptance across multiple models now, however, so an event of some kind appears likely.  I think the most relevant part to us is the level of phasing that occurs as that energy is stretched out from the southwestern CONUS.  We see a relatively flat flow, overall, and the trough is never allowed to turn negative, which means we don't yet see a scenario where this turns and rides up the coast or is captured.  The latter part is most relevant to the storm's overall potential and cap.  Without a negatively-oriented trough, we aren't as likely to see "historic" numbers up along the Atlantic side.  If you want an example of what I mean, look at the 06Z GFS at 300 hours (February 1st) and you'll see the type of negative turn coastal I describe.  Simply described as "bombogenesis."

We could still get a good haul from a long-duration overrunning event.  That's what you're seeing in the southern US on the 06Z GFS, for example.  Approaching two feet of snow in places like Chattanooga and Knoxville.  Those numbers are unusual but not totally unprecedented.  Chattanooga got 18" from the 1993 system, for example.  Knoxville got 17.5" back in 1960.  It is rare, to be sure, but it can happen, and the depth of the cold makes it a possibility.  But the rarity should give you an indication of how likely model depictions are at this range.

The biggest problem for us might be wave spacing combined with the confluence.  You have a decent sized TPV lobe pushing down, but you also have another one or two discrete pieces of energy riding behind it.  We're looking at a high of around 10 degrees on Saturday.  That's colder than typically ideal when you're talking about big snows.  There's also no real blocking in place.  Some of the long-range looks appear to show a -NAO establishing itself.  I think the main reason for this system, at all, is the sudden collapse of the AO (going deeply negative) and a transient PNA slide to neutral.  If the MJO can continue propagating west, that might help keep our chances alive going forward.  The AO is likely to rebound some but could stay well negative to displace the cold for us.

As I'm typing this, we see how the 12Z GFS handles things quite different from 06Z.  The 12Z keeps the energy separated and doesn't allow for any phasing to occur until the primary low is well out into the Atlantic.  A lot of the energy from the 06Z that was stretched and created a SWFE was instead held back and closed off over Baja, Mexico on the 12Z.  The 12Z Canadian is more like the 06Z GFS.  The Canadian is a good middle ground, and while it is out of what we may consider an "ideal" position for us, ideal often means flirting with raindrops.

Part of me thinks the even more interesting period to watch is after next weekend, but that much remains TBD.

I'll probably dig into the maps a bit more later, hopefully after a few more model runs to see if any kind of consensus builds.  There are a still a wide range of possibilities.

[colonel717]

UKie is 15+