December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[Daniel Boone]

Another thing to note about '95-96 is there was a warmup after the aforementioned Snowstorm in December. It ended right before Christmas and Rain changed to Snow here in the early morning hours of Christmas and we had an inch of Snow at 7 A.M. 

One other thing about that Winter; it did have an extreme Arctic Outbreak. February 3rd and 4th Heavy Snow fell dropping 10-24 inches in the mid and upper great Valley. the front passed and the Temp fell to -21 feb 5 with the high of -4 in Pennington gap.

[jaxjagman]

It dont look very cold cold to me in the long range,this is in part due to the Walker Circulation ,when you see these strong EWB'S this strenghtens the Walker circulation and pushes the Jet Steam the jet more Northward in winter time during LaNina,in summer time we can see droughts in our parts,which is what we seen this summer,this is what you seem to be seeing right now with the ensembles long range

[Carvers Gap]

35 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

I remember it having systems travel from the Pac NW down through the Plains into the Tn Valley along the Jet. Some would drop to the mid South and form a Miller A from a Miller B( transfer). Those were the Ones that would cut up the Coast from NC on up(Noreaster). Several low riding B and Clipper Systems as well. I was thinking awhile ago after reading Johns post and pondered that really all we need is this Pattern with the Trough dipped further South a 25-100 Miles. Then we'd be in the area getting the Snow that Area's that distance up are getting. So close. A stronger block would do it. Taller western Ridge would. 

The Euro Weeklies this evening strongly hint at a 95-96 type of progression.  Warmup around Christmas.  Cold returns mid-Jan or just after.  That also fits the pattern of recent winters.  The good thing about all of this...eastern portions of the forum have missed w/ the second cold shot during recent Nina winters.   I doubt that happens this winter.  I think the cold in later January pushes to the coast.  Just a hunch.

[Carvers Gap]

31 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Another thing to note about '95-96 is there was a warmup after the aforementioned Snowstorm in December. It ended right before Christmas and Rain changed to Snow here in the early morning hours of Christmas and we had an inch of Snow at 7 A.M. 

One other thing about that Winter; it did have an extreme Arctic Outbreak. February 3rd and 4th Heavy Snow fell dropping 10-24 inches in the mid and upper great Valley. the front passed and the Temp fell to -21 feb 5 with the high of -4 in Pennington gap.

Basically, the December 1995 pattern would repeat later that winter, but with better climatology in place for cold air to make it to this latitude and hold. IMBY(not the folks at elevation), we are fighting climatology every step of the way right now.  It eases up after Dec 10th or so, and becomes more favorable with each day.  When I first started tracking, I rarely tracked during the first 20 days of December.  But if this pattern were to repeat during the second half of winter, I think the cold presses more.  Now, the STJ is inactive...so northern stream systems are gonna have to do the trick.  I still think we have a shot to score before this breaks just short of Christmas.  

One caveat, this may not break down before Christmas.  Some MJO plots are stalled through the end of the month and into early January on the left side of the MJO.  Also, modeling tends to break down patterns a bit too early.  That said, a New Year's thaw seems realistic.  If it is twenty below w/ five feet of snow...you can look back on this comment and thank me for it!

[jaxjagman]

28 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

It dont look very cold cold to me in the long range,this is in part due to the Walker Circulation ,when you see these strong EWB'S this strenghtens the Walker circulation and pushes the Jet Steam the jet more Northward in winter time during LaNina,in summer time we can see droughts in our parts,which is what we seen this summer,this is what you seem to be seeing right now with the ensembles long range

I mean basically this is what we are seeing if you look towards Eastern Aussie land,not saying we will torch but its not gonna get that cold,cold air is gonna be trapped in Canada,Upper Plains

 

[jaxjagman]

 

[Daniel Boone]

'95-96 was weak La Nina. 2010-11 was a moderate to strong La Nina. Both featured alot of cold and Snow. I've not looked into how the Walker or Hadley Cells were those Winters.  don't know if you can get Archived Data irt that. Maybe you can see what you can find Jax. 

I will say, if they were active in the way the upcoming is predicted, I wonder if the strong Blocking those Winters countered that. ?. Law of physics would say strong upstream Blocking would alter the effects of the Cells  thereby keeping the Jet from being forced North . Of course, there would be a battle between the two as they'd war against each other. So, depending on how strong the EWB'S are and how persistent I suppose on whether they would force the Block out or not. Of course , as of now strong Blocking doesn't exist on ensembles. They actually look as if what blocking there is is eroding but, that could be them seeing the Cells forcing doing that.   

     The Other fly in the Ointment is what Carvers mentioned about the MJO. How will that affect the Cells typical response.?.

[John1122]

Looks like the cold for next weekend is basically up in smoke now. The 00z GFS is now 20 degrees warmer than it was for next weekend than it was last night at 00z. 

What looked promising somewhat is  a dumpster fire for winter chances here into Christmas, if the models are correct. 

Deep Gulf of Alaska low flooding Pacific air across the lower 48, hostile Pacific, hostile Atlantic. It doesn't get much worse than that run.