Winter 2025-2026 Thoughts:

[donsutherland1]

A classic La Niña winter appears to be on the way. There will likely be some interesting developments, along the way, particularly if a sudden stratospheric warming event materializes in late November or early December. Then, the potential would exist for a cold end to December and possibly first half of January, if the polar vortex is displaced. 

Based on ENSO and the teleconnections, there is a signal for the coldest month relative to normal to be January in the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Perhaps the Arctic outbreak of November 10-11 that saw the coldest anomalies affect the Southeast offers a hint of how things might unfold in January.

The C3S multi-model system appears to be quite aggressive with above normal temperatures. Last winter, there were some indications that it was too aggressive with the warmth, but I deferred to the guidance. That proved to be a bad mistake leading to an overly warm idea.

This time, I am giving more weight to the analog cases for insight. The ECMWF seasonal forecast appears to be a better fit with the final cases I selected based on ENSO and the teleconnections.  My selected comparison cases for Winter 2025-2026 are Winters 2016-2017, 2017-2018, 2021-2022, and 2024-2025. 

C3S Seasonal Forecasts:

ECMWF:

Analog Cases:

ECMWF: December-February 500 mb Progression:

Analog Cases: December-February 500 mb Progression:

Select Snowfall Estimates:
Albany: 45"-60"
Baltimore: 10"-15"
Binghamton: 80"-90"
Boston: 35"-45"
Buffalo: 85"-95"
Burlington: 75"-85"
Caribou: 110"-125"
Chicago: 30"-40"
Detroit: 40"-50"
New York City: 15"-25"
Newark: 15"-25"
Philadelphia: 10"-20"
St. Louis: 10"-15"
Toronto: 100 cm - 125 cm
Washington, DC: 8"-12"