WxWatcher007 Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago 4 minutes ago, shaggy said: Yeah no models had this slow motion early on which is why they all showed the ULL pulling it onshore Monday night. At this point its so slow hunberto might be north east of it by the time it gets to the northern Bahamas amd yank it due east from there. Pretty bad performance by the gfs and euro on this one And their ensembles. At relatively short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 minutes ago, shaggy said: Yeah no models had this slow motion early on which is why they all showed the ULL pulling it onshore Monday night. At this point its so slow hunberto might be north east of it by the time it gets to the northern Bahamas amd yank it due east from there. Pretty bad performance by the gfs and euro on this one to be fair fujiwara is a pretty hard dynamic to work out, this setup was never gonna be an easy one 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 11 minutes ago, cardinalland said: to be fair fujiwara is a pretty hard dynamic to work out, this setup was never gonna be an easy one I agree but the short term motion prior to any Fujiwara was also very wrong on those models. Nome of them has this thing stalled out in the southern Bahamas and near Cuba for 2-3 days straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Wouldn't a slower storm interact with the high pressure system over NE Canada moving in and steer it west like Sandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago Sure ain’t something you see everyday 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 00z GFS is well out to sea. Oh well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 0Z UKMET: stays OTS like every other UKMET and every Icon has done. Reminder: Coincidentally or not, the UKMET and Icon were the two best models by far for Ian by being the furthest to the right/SE coming into SW FL. 0Z UKMET ROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 76.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 28.09.2025 0 22.0N 76.4W 1005 31 1200UTC 28.09.2025 12 23.2N 76.9W 1003 35 0000UTC 29.09.2025 24 24.6N 76.7W 1000 32 1200UTC 29.09.2025 36 26.7N 77.1W 998 43 0000UTC 30.09.2025 48 28.5N 77.4W 994 42 1200UTC 30.09.2025 60 29.2N 77.3W 991 38 0000UTC 01.10.2025 72 29.0N 75.9W 989 41 1200UTC 01.10.2025 84 29.7N 73.4W 987 47 0000UTC 02.10.2025 96 30.3N 69.6W 985 57 1200UTC 02.10.2025 108 31.6N 64.5W 984 54 0000UTC 03.10.2025 120 33.5N 59.8W 986 67 1200UTC 03.10.2025 132 34.8N 57.0W 992 48 0000UTC 04.10.2025 144 36.3N 56.0W 995 43 1200UTC 04.10.2025 156 37.7N 54.4W 999 39 0000UTC 05.10.2025 168 41.4N 49.5W 999 41 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: 0Z UKMET: stays OTS like every other UKMET and every Icon has done. Reminder: Coincidentally or not, the UKMET and Icon were the two best models by far for Ian by being the furthest to the right/SE coming into SW FL. 0Z UKMET ROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 76.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 28.09.2025 0 22.0N 76.4W 1005 31 1200UTC 28.09.2025 12 23.2N 76.9W 1003 35 0000UTC 29.09.2025 24 24.6N 76.7W 1000 32 1200UTC 29.09.2025 36 26.7N 77.1W 998 43 0000UTC 30.09.2025 48 28.5N 77.4W 994 42 1200UTC 30.09.2025 60 29.2N 77.3W 991 38 0000UTC 01.10.2025 72 29.0N 75.9W 989 41 1200UTC 01.10.2025 84 29.7N 73.4W 987 47 0000UTC 02.10.2025 96 30.3N 69.6W 985 57 1200UTC 02.10.2025 108 31.6N 64.5W 984 54 0000UTC 03.10.2025 120 33.5N 59.8W 986 67 1200UTC 03.10.2025 132 34.8N 57.0W 992 48 0000UTC 04.10.2025 144 36.3N 56.0W 995 43 1200UTC 04.10.2025 156 37.7N 54.4W 999 39 0000UTC 05.10.2025 168 41.4N 49.5W 999 41 Euro pretty much on an island 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro pretty much on an island I never go against the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 15 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: I never go against the Euro. Unlike prior two runs, the 0Z Euro stays away from US. Also, unlike some hurricane model runs yesterday that curved back into SC/GA, the 0Z runs all stayed offshore that area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: Unlike prior two runs, the 0Z Euro stays away from US. She's just trying to fit in with the crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 22 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: I never go against the Euro. 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: Unlike prior two runs, the 0Z Euro stays away from US. Also, unlike some hurricane model runs yesterday that curved back into SC/GA, the 0Z runs all stayed offshore that area. 6 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: She's just trying to fit in with the crowd. The Euro is just another model. Nowhere near its glory of a decade ago lol. With a well defined center now and slower motion, along with a weaker SE cutoff and stronger Humberto, it’s harder to see that escape route being closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The Euro is just another model. Nowhere near its glory of a decade ago lol. With a well defined center now and slower motion, along with a weaker SE cutoff and stronger Humberto, it’s harder to see that escape route being closed. So you're saying there's a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Feel VERY confident this has trended to just a rip current/beach erosion threat. Bermuda still needs to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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