Invest 91L (50/80)

[olafminesaw]

Even with the GFS coming south to start the run, if I take it's position at hour 78: there have been 20 storms since 1980 to pass within 100 miles of that point in September, of which only 2 made landfall in the US, the rest recurved well east. The two exceptions are Hugo and Georges (1998). Georges moved through the heart of the Greater Antilles hitting every island along the way. It is the furthest south of this grouping in the Caribbean as well, so a track south of the islands would be unprecedented 

[GaWx]

12Z:
-Euro: has a TS in the MDR that later weakens to a weak low as it crosses the Lesser Antilles and then goes through Caribbean disorganized/very weak

-UKMET: no TC again/low too weak to be classified a TD

[GaWx]

The 12Z EPS has one member from 91L hit FL, another headed toward the Gulf, and a couple of others not far from hitting the NE US as they recurve. But overall, that’s still pretty quiet for CONUS. Interestingly, there’s more Conus hits from other systems, mainly homegrown stuff.

[BarryStantonGBP]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z EPS has one member from 91L hit FL, another headed toward the Gulf, and a couple of others not far from hitting the NE US as they recurve. But overall, that’s still pretty quiet for CONUS. Interestingly, there’s more Conus hits from other systems, mainly homegrown stuff.

Oi lad there’s another signal separate from 91l that might go into the gulf and score a goal in the gulf net that I posted on the main thread

Gabby looks like she won’t do anything at this point