Eastern Tropical Atlantic Wave - 40/80

[BarryStantonGBP]

5 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

So far the wave is pretty far south, and to the north, and west is SAL.

gabby eats out sal, guaranteed

[GaWx]

Now 10/60 @BarryStantonGBP

[GaWx]

For the first time in a couple of days, the UKMET (0Z) has TCG for this. However, after moving WNW, then WSW for a short time, and then back to WNW, it dissipates at 16.4N, 48.3W:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 15.0N 35.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2025 72 15.0N 35.4W 1011 28
1200UTC 05.09.2025 84 15.6N 37.0W 1012 26
0000UTC 06.09.2025 96 15.9N 39.8W 1012 28
1200UTC 06.09.2025 108 16.4N 42.7W 1012 32
0000UTC 07.09.2025 120 16.0N 45.7W 1013 29
1200UTC 07.09.2025 132 16.4N 48.3W 1013 29
0000UTC 08.09.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING

[GaWx]

 The E MDR AOI is now red. This from Michael Lowry is a bit concerning at least for the E Caribbean:

Models all over the map

Forecast models generally agree on development, but the timing of and placement of development vary wildly, which of course affect the future track.

On the one hand the American GFS is quick to develop the system this week along the northern lobe of the tropical wave and as a result move it farther north and turn it quickly into the Atlantic for next week, missing the islands to the north.

On the other hand, the European model and Google DeepMind’s newest machine learning-based model that performed well during Hurricane Erin, take some time to develop the wave and do so on the southern side, which not surprisingly favors a track farther south and west and toward the eastern Caribbean for the middle part of next week.

———————

 My concern is that Google Deepmind ensembles, which I know little about, did best with Erin per Lowry. As you can see, its 0Z 9/2 run has 6 of its members from the E MDR AEW in a very dangerous location. What I don’t know is how many total members it has. Lowry’s diagram makes it look like most members go toward the Caribbean, but there are only 6 that actually get there by hour 210. Many are slower (still well E) and 4 of them are turning WNW to NW (at the top of his yellow circle) and we can’t see where they go after hour 210. Also, there are two that are just starting to sharply recurve well E of the Caribbean but still within the MDR. But regardless, this ensemble’s avg trajectory does look more dangerous than the EPS and is totally different from the GEFS.

@BarryStantonGBPPlease change this from 10/60 to 30/70. Thanks.

  

[BarryStantonGBP]

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The E MDR AOI is now red. This from Michael Lowry is a bit concerning at least for the E Caribbean:

Models all over the map

Forecast models generally agree on development, but the timing of and placement of development vary wildly, which of course affect the future track.

On the one hand the American GFS is quick to develop the system this week along the northern lobe of the tropical wave and as a result move it farther north and turn it quickly into the Atlantic for next week, missing the islands to the north.

On the other hand, the European model and Google DeepMind’s newest machine learning-based model that performed well during Hurricane Erin, take some time to develop the wave and do so on the southern side, which not surprisingly favors a track farther south and west and toward the eastern Caribbean for the middle part of next week.

———————

 My concern is that Google Deepmind ensembles, which I know little about, did best with Erin per Lowry. As you can see, its 0Z 9/2 run has 6 of its members from the E MDR AEW in a very dangerous location. What I don’t know is how many total members it has. Lowry’s diagram makes it look like most members go toward the Caribbean, but there are only 6 that actually get there by hour 210. Many are slower (still well E) and 4 of them are turning WNW to NW (at the top of his yellow circle) and we can’t see where they go after hour 210. But regardless, this ensemble’s avg trajectory does look more dangerous than the EPS and is totally different from the GEFS.

@BarryStantonGBPPlease change this from 10/60 to 30/70. Thanks.

  

changed + if she does track to the caribbean could she blow up or will she stay weak

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

changed + if she does track to the caribbean could she blow up or will she stay weak

 Anything’s possible. It could blow up in especially the W half of the Caribbean if it gets to the E Car pretty weak. 
 By the way, note that per Deepmind that the faster members are more of a threat to the Caribbean/further S.

[BarryStantonGBP]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Anything’s possible. It could blow up in especially the W half of the Caribbean if it gets to the E Car pretty weak. 
 By the way, note that per Deepmind that the faster members are more of a threat to the Caribbean/further S.

have you even seen the WCAR/BOC ensembles last night innit?

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

have you even seen the WCAR/BOC ensembles last night innit?

Barry, I’d rather not address those ITT, but that area may be active by midmonth.

 12Z ICON is much weaker than and S of the 0Z run and has WSW motion to 15N, 49W at 168 well below a 600 dm H5 high at a steady state 1003 mb/TS.

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

For the first time in a couple of days, the UKMET (0Z) has TCG for this. However, after moving WNW, then WSW for a short time, and then back to WNW, it dissipates at 16.4N, 48.3W:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 15.0N 35.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2025 72 15.0N 35.4W 1011 28
1200UTC 05.09.2025 84 15.6N 37.0W 1012 26
0000UTC 06.09.2025 96 15.9N 39.8W 1012 28
1200UTC 06.09.2025 108 16.4N 42.7W 1012 32
0000UTC 07.09.2025 120 16.0N 45.7W 1013 29
1200UTC 07.09.2025 132 16.4N 48.3W 1013 29
0000UTC 08.09.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING

12Z UKMET, after having it for the first run in a couple of days as a TD on the 0Z run (though it later weakened), is back to having the low too weak to be classified as a TC.

[GaWx]

 For the record but fwiw since it’s still well out in wild guessing land, the 12Z Euro directly hits Bermuda 9/14-5 as a MH as it moves NE.

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 For the record but fwiw since it’s still well out in wild guessing land, the 12Z Euro directly hits Bermuda 9/14-5 as a MH as it moves NE.

12 EPS have b2b majors hitting land, with gabby hitting bermuda and humerto hitting louisiana/texas

but focusing on gabby this is what we have innit

[ROOSTA]

NCAR is refurbishing their website.
Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project

Appears to be a lot of new variables to be disseminated.  

[olafminesaw]

Fairly good agreement on a trough over the Eastern Conus in modeling in agreement with the overall troughy pattern that has been established, leads to higher than normal confidence in a recurve 

[cptcatz]

18z Euro: significantly weaker, slower, and further south than 12z. Maybe a trend?

[cptcatz]

18z euro ensembles are quite interesting 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: This run is back to a TD. Once formed, it remains the same strength. It is significantly further S than the prior run with a TD (24 hrs ago). At 168, it’s on a trajectory toward the Leewards only 150 miles away:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 13.3N 51.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2025 132 13.3N 51.7W 1011 27
0000UTC 09.09.2025 144 14.1N 54.6W 1010 29
1200UTC 09.09.2025 156 15.0N 57.4W 1011 31
0000UTC 10.09.2025 168 16.0N 59.5W 1010 31

[BarryStantonGBP]

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: N of 0Z…aiming for just N of Leewards

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.8N 43.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2025 96 13.8N 43.4W 1012 25
0000UTC 08.09.2025 108 13.9N 46.1W 1011 28
1200UTC 08.09.2025 120 13.9N 48.8W 1010 28
0000UTC 09.09.2025 132 14.3N 51.3W 1009 31
1200UTC 09.09.2025 144 15.6N 53.6W 1010 32
0000UTC 10.09.2025 156 16.8N 56.0W 1010 32
1200UTC 10.09.2025 168 17.8N 58.6W 1010 34

[olafminesaw]

56 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

This coupled with the 12 Euro, which is way south and breaks  up a weak system over Hispanola, means landfall odds have increased  this afternoon (both for the Caribbean and Conus). Still no reason to be concerned just yet as we watch the windshield wiper effect. 
 

[Pityflakes]

A left turning major into Charleston would be...problematic.  

 

BUT, that solution is based on the persistent seasonal 500mb west coast ridge finally breaking down and transiting across the whole of the lower 48 at exactly the right time to bring this in.  Along w/ a fortuitous Canadian surface high moving in to cut off the weakness left by the retreating Bermuda high.  Long way to go for this one. 

That being said, the GFS has been hinting at a pattern change and raising 500mb heights on the east coast for a while now, which would open the door for something tropical to reach the mainland.  But it also keeps punting that change to Day 14-15 so who knows.  Kind of feels like winter, waiting for an advertised pattern change that never seems to materialize.  

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[Wannabehippie]

Still no closed circulation that I can make out on satellite photos. The one behind this one actually looks more impressive. Plus there is still one over Africa that has a lot of convection associated with it.
blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/945a622d-62e6-412d-93cd-f03b00964225

[Wannabehippie]

[GaWx]

0Z:
-Icon is a little SW of the 12Z with it at 18N, 55W at 180 moving WNW

-The UKMET on again off again is now back to off with the low not strong enough to be classified a TD.

-Early in the GFS run, it’s a little N of the 18Z position at 138 hours.