Invest 97L - 10/50

[BarryStantonGBP]

THIS WAVE HASN'T SPLASHED DOWN YET BUT DESERVES ITS OWN THREAD ANYWAY

POST MODEL RUNS HERE 

[BarryStantonGBP]

oui oui baguette

Quote

 Tropical Wave Inside Africa

•  

#2 by Category5Kaiju » Wed Aug 06, 2025 7:39 pm 

At least per the most recent GFS run, what really catches my attention is how quickly this storm seems to form just after exiting Africa, becoming what appears to be a named system right next to the Cape Verde islands. Given its very high intensity down the line, somewhat reminds me of storms like Irma, Florence, and Lorenzo in that regard as well.

Really hope not, but if some of these model guidances are correct, then this could be a very long thread.

 

[GaWx]

 The 6Z Euro ens 144 hour (end of run) is more active and quite possibly the most active run yet with this AEW. I count 19 closed sfc lows with 4 of those being sub 1000 mb. This is unfortunately setting up to be a potentially very dangerous system down the road for some land areas and is something the Euro Weeklies have been on top of for at least the last 9 days.
 
 For the Conus, itself, I’ll especially be interested in whether or not the MJO is going to be either in or nearby phase 2 (inside or outside the circle), the most dangerous phase per the last 50 years of tracks, around two weeks from now. Model consensus is at least hinting at that possibility.

[GaWx]

W African AEW:

1. The 12Z ICON is slightly stronger than the 0Z with the W African AEW. At 180, it has what already looks like a TD (well organized 1008 mb low at 19N, 46W. Although a TC near that position often recurves safely, this one is turning back to just N of due W after moving WNW earlier due to a stronger high to its north at this longitude.

2. The 12Z UKMET doesn’t have this. However, the 0Z had this data, which likely is not from the same AEW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.4N 18.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.08.2025 120 15.6N 21.0W 1009 28
1200UTC 12.08.2025 132 15.0N 24.0W 1010 27
0000UTC 13.08.2025 144 15.4N 26.0W 1010 23
1200UTC 13.08.2025 156 CEASED TRACKING

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[GaWx]

The 12Z UKMET is likely the 1st with a TD from this as it forms in only 114 hours (thus lemon-worthy). After sliding just N of the N Leewards, it ends the run approaching TS strength (33 knts/38 mph winds) 430 miles ENE of PR moving WNW at a pretty brisk 18 mph. Will have to wait for maps to get better idea of whether or not its implying it would likely recurve offshore the Conus.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.8N 46.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2025 120 16.1N 48.2W 1009 28
0000UTC 14.08.2025 132 17.8N 51.6W 1009 27
1200UTC 14.08.2025 144 18.9N 54.9W 1009 29
0000UTC 15.08.2025 156 20.3N 57.7W 1009 30
1200UTC 15.08.2025 168 21.4N 60.9W 1007 33

 

[WxWatcher007]

At least right now the GFS, Euro, and second tier models are in agreement that this one develops within the next 6 days or so. With 96L out of the way and a cross-guidance signal for strong Atlantic ridging this does look like a candidate to at least get to the SW Atlantic. From there, who knows. There are almost always unmodeled troughs/weaknesses at this range that could easily kick it before getting close to the US. 

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS: I count ~60% of the 30 members with a TC then from this at hour 204. With regard to the CONUS, there is a mix of a good number of more northern safe recurvers that are tending to be stronger (though possibly threatening Bermuda) and a minority of further south mainly then not as strong that are potential threats. This may be a good representation of the most likely scenarios as is often the case with ensembles:

[TampaMan]

Going to Tampa Aug 15 - Aug 22nd to close on a house. Should I be concerned about this or will it likely shoot up the coast? (This is also my only vacation of the year)

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, TampaMan said:

Going to Tampa Aug 15 - Aug 22nd to close on a house. Should I be concerned about this or will it likely shoot up the coast? (This is also my only vacation of the year)

 
 No telling this far out. But the odds of any one location getting hit hard from this should it become a storm are small this far out.
Edit: That being said, can you ask for a delay in the closing a few days?

[TampaMan]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 
 No telling this far out. But the odds of any one location getting hit hard from this should it become a storm are small this far out.
Edit: That being said, can you ask for a delay in the closing a few days?

Well, I could but it's also the week I took off of work and paid for a place to stay for said week. I'm not sure if it's refundable either (wife ordered the AirBnB). 

About to have a full blown panic attack. I need this vacation, not only this house. I know I'm likely over reacting a bit prematurely but it would just be standard for my life for a hurricane to pop up the one week I've decided to take a vacation (that I desperately need for the sake of my mental health). 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, TampaMan said:

Well, I could but it's also the week I took off of work and paid for a place to stay for said week. I'm not sure if it's refundable either (wife ordered the AirBnB). 

About to have a full blown panic attack. I need this vacation, not only this house. I know I'm likely over reacting a bit prematurely but it would just be standard for my life for a hurricane to pop up the one week I've decided to take a vacation (that I desperately need for the sake of my mental health). 

 Reading your comments, it makes me wonder if you should rethink closing on a house in a highly vulnerable location to hurricanes in general like Tampa? Is it well inland and at a safe elevation?

[GaWx]

12Z Euro landfalls in E NC/Outer Banks at hour 324 (late on Aug 21st with it then in the 950s of mbs or likely near cat 3 status. All of this is very much just fwiw since it’s just an operational run out in fantasyland. I’m posting this mainly for the record:

[TampaMan]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 Reading your comments, it makes me wonder if you should rethink closing on a house in a highly vulnerable location to hurricanes in general like Tampa? Is it well inland and at a safe elevation?

It's more inland and away from the coast at a higher elevation, that was my first thought when my wife and I discussed about a move to FL. It's all job related as well. 

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, TampaMan said:

It's more inland and away from the coast at a higher elevation, that was my first thought when my wife and I discussed about a move to FL. It's all job related as well. 

 If I were in your position, I’d be asking for a delay of this closing til after the potential threat from this is past. When do you need to ask for a delay by? Wouldn’t it be easier to be granted a delay if you ask sooner? Even though still only a small chance, what if this ends up hitting FL hard just after you close? I’d prefer that uncertainty to be past considering how big an investment this is. But that’s just me.

[TampaMan]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 If I were in your position, I’d be asking for a delay of this closing til after the potential threat from this is past. When do you need to ask for a delay by? Wouldn’t it be easier to be granted a delay if you ask sooner? Even though still only a small chance, what if this ends up hitting FL hard just after you close? I’d prefer that uncertainty to be past considering how big an investment this is. But that’s just me.

You’re absolutely right, we could ask for a delay. I’m going to put aside the house topic for now, because that’s doable really at any time. I should’ve clarified. We haven’t picked a house yet, we are going down to choose from 3 options we like. Down to our final three, so that can be put on pause. I’m mainly concerned about my PTO because I’ve had this week circled for 6 months at this point. It’s more so a vacation as well as house hunting. 
 

The neighborhood we’re looking at his multiple houses for sale and it’s a safe distance from the coast and at a higher elevation. I know it’s a risk you run living in Florida regardless. 
 

I’m hopeful for the sake of my vacation & sanity that it does not happen and even more so hopeful for the residents of FL. 

 

Edit: not 6 weeks, 6 months. 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro ensemble: many potential scenarios regarding the CONUS as would be expected this far out with many well offshore the E coast, some threatening the E coast, and 4 in/near the Gulf:

[TampaMan]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro ensemble: many potential scenarios regarding the CONUS as would be expected this far out with many well offshore the E coast, some threatening the E coast, and 4 in/near the Gulf:

That makes me a feel a tad better, guess I'll know more in 5 days right before I leave for the trip. 

[WxWatcher007]

I wouldn’t have any concern to be honest about a trip anywhere. This wave just left the African coast and is at best 10 days away from the US. I’m not even thinking about the logistics of a chase yet and with good reason. 

First, the operational models (GFS/Euro) cannot be relied on for meaningful detailed accuracy at that range, especially for tropical. Even if they agree. They get posted here because they’re just fodder for our analysis and speculation at this range. 

Second, there are a multitude of factors that can and will impact the eventual outcome of this. There’s confidence in a ridge but will there be any troughs or weaknesses available to recurve this? A stronger ridge to push this in the Caribbean? Will it even develop or will it get choked by dry air or ripped apart by shear? No way of knowing at this range.

I’d keep a casual eye on it, and maybe have a plan if this looks like a real possibility 6-7 days from now, but I wouldn’t change any plans.

My .02

[WxWatcher007]

Good time to bust this out. We have an eternity to go. A lot will change. 

[TampaMan]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I wouldn’t have any concern to be honest about a trip anywhere. This wave just left the African coast and is at best 10 days away from the US. I’m not even thinking about the logistics of a chase yet and with good reason. 

First, the operational models (GFS/Euro) cannot be relied on for meaningful detailed accuracy at that range, especially for tropical. Even if they agree. They get posted here because they’re just fodder for our analysis and speculation at this range. 

Second, there are a multitude of factors that can and will impact the eventual outcome of this. There’s confidence in a ridge but will there be any troughs or weaknesses available to recurve this? A stronger ridge to push this in the Caribbean? Will it even develop or will it get choked by dry air or ripped apart by shear? No way of knowing at this range.

I’d keep a casual eye on it, and maybe have a plan if this looks like a real possibility 6-7 days from now, but I wouldn’t change any plans.

My .02

I appreciate your post, sincerely. Thank you for going into a bit more detail for me so I can get some sort of relief temporarily. I'll keep an eye on it for the next few days, I forgot how this forum works.. even during winter people posted weenie maps of massive snow events that were 3 weeks out. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, TampaMan said:

I appreciate your post, sincerely. Thank you for going into a bit more detail for me so I can get some sort of relief temporarily. I'll keep an eye on it for the next few days, I forgot how this forum works.. even during winter people posted weenie maps of massive snow events that were 3 weeks out. 

Just remember that with time, errors on computer guidance increase exponentially. So at the very early stages like now when there’s no low level center and no vertically stacked system it’s going to be exceptionally hard for models or even ensembles to nail a long range forecast—anything beyond about 7 days imo. 

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just remember that with time, errors on computer guidance increase exponentially. So at the very early stages like now when there’s no low level center and no vertically stacked system it’s going to be exceptionally hard for models or even ensembles to nail a long range forecast—anything beyond about 7 days imo. 

 That’s why I prefer looking at ensembles (mainly Euro and GFS), especially 5+ days out, to give hints of potential scenarios and which scenarios appear to be more likely. I also like to look at the operationals as their own ensemble in a sense within 7 days or so because by then the Euro, GFS, ICON, CMC, and UKMET are all available.

 As we know, we’re now still ~10-14 days away from any *potential* threat to the Conus. So, ensembles will probably tell us the most fwiw for a number of days to come.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, GaWx said:

 That’s why I prefer looking at ensembles (mainly Euro and GFS), especially 5+ days out, to give hints of potential scenarios and which scenarios appear to be more likely. I also like to look at the operationals as their own ensemble in a sense within 7 days or so because by then the Euro, GFS, ICON, CMC, and UKMET are all available.

Yeah that's exactly it. The op models are always good for drama, but the ensembles are where it's at long range if one is really trying to analyze. The signal for something getting to the SW Atlantic is there IMO, but who knows about beyond that.

The failed low off the SE coast is a prime example of this. Models kept driving it into the Carolina coast because they saw it being trapped under a ridge...until the guidance recognized a weakness that wasn't previously analyzed. 

[csnavywx]

Devil will be in the details as usual, but not the most friendly UL pattern to recurve TCs. Will need a weakness in the ridge that doesn't involve a cut-off low to the east of the central/plains ridge, sloppy development, or other smaller-scale (unresolvable at this distance) features to disrupt this as there's not much in the way of PV Streamers/TUTTs, the jet is displaced pretty far north and the WAR has a higher than normal chance of being an obstacle to recurvature.

 

 

[TampaMan]

Well, I'm glad I came here after a 5 month break (winter destroyed me, still in Richmond, VA) so I left the forums for a while. I'll keep peeking in here this week and next to see if anything major changes. Maybe I'll be the forum storm chaser if something does occur. Knowing my wife (she doesn't listen) she'd end up still wanting to go if a cat 5 hurricane was aimed directly at Tampa. Joking, kind of.... 

[csnavywx]

It will likely struggle somewhat initially as SSTs are very marginal at first: 

[TampaMan]

3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Devil will be in the details as usual, but not the most friendly UL pattern to recurve TCs. Will need a weakness in the ridge that doesn't involve a cut-off low to the east of the central/plains ridge, sloppy development, or other smaller-scale (unresolvable at this distance) features to disrupt this as there's not much in the way of PV Streamers/TUTTs, the jet is displaced pretty far north and the WAR has a higher than normal chance of being an obstacle to recurvature.

 

 

Any chance you could explain this like I'm 4 years old? (I'm trying to learn, forgive me). If not, totally fine! I'm probably in way over my head trying to learn tropics. 

[csnavywx]

Just now, TampaMan said:

Any chance you could explain this like I'm 4 years old? 

The blues over the N/E US and reds over Canada are showing a jet stream that's pushed north well into Canada -- which will make it more difficult for any storms that develop to recurve out to sea. Other than some cool-ish sea surface temps in the eastern basin and maybe some occasional drier air, there's no real obvious feature here that could hinder development. My guess is that it might take longer to develop than some of the models currently have, but it's a real threat if it makes it into the western basin with that upper level pattern in place.

[Newman]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah that's exactly it. The op models are always good for drama, but the ensembles are where it's at long range if one is really trying to analyze. The signal for something getting to the SW Atlantic is there IMO, but who knows about beyond that.

The failed low off the SE coast is a prime example of this. Models kept driving it into the Carolina coast because they saw it being trapped under a ridge...until the guidance recognized a weakness that wasn't previously analyzed. 

The EPS and GEFS both came out hot with current 96L as well and slowly backed off to the point now we're seeing significantly less individual ensembles even produce a weak tropical disturbance, if anything at all. The EPS was consistent with the quick recurve north and looks to have notched a victory here with regards to track, but initially it was much more potent with 96L. All of that to say... Until there's an actual tropical system, these models usually run hot on development. I think this next wave will take longer to develop than currently modeled.

I believe the pattern favors the next wave making it into the SW Atlantic, and the environment is much more conducive to development. Give it 4-5 days here and the ensembles will be telling