93L – “Inactive” Season Posting Check-In (NEVER MIND)

[BarryStantonGBP]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern U.S.:
A broad area of low pressure could form over the next several days
offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Environmental conditions
could become marginally conducive for the gradual development of
this system by mid to late next week as the system moves generally
westward across the Florida Peninsula and over the eastern and
north-central portion of the Gulf.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions
of the Florida Peninsula  and southeast U.S. coast through mid to late
next week (and y’all better stock up on Hot Cheetos, I am NOT playing).


Forecaster Papin/Mahoney/Jackson

[BarryStantonGBP]

[tiger_deF]

I’m expecting the models to back on and off of development of this feature, especially given the background state, but this ICON run is an eye opener

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, tiger_deF said:

I’m expecting the models to back on and off of development of this feature, especially given the background state, but this ICON run is an eye opener

Mental run mate

 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

I’m expecting the models to back on and off of development of this feature, especially given the background state, but this ICON run is an eye opener

 The ICON has at least been hinting at this since the Wednesday (7/9) runs whereas the other recent operationals have not had much, if anything. Ensemble support is only light.

 If this does occur, it would be an easy win for the Icon.

[GaWx]

The 12Z Icon has a cat 2-3 (968 mb) hitting near the LA/TX border Fri night after battering much of the LA coast on Thu-Fri fwiw.

Edit: Icon still mainly on its own of 12Z global operationals. CMC does have a weak low further N near the Gulf coast.

[tiger_deF]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z Icon has a cat 2-3 (968 mb) hitting near the LA/TX border Fri night after battering much of the LA coast on Thu-Fri fwiw.

I hope it slides to the west or east if it is still predicting development, that area has been hit really hard in the past few years, Laura Delta and others have caused a lot of damage

[WxWatcher007]

Up to 30%, and the ensembles are slightly more bullish today.

[GaWx]

Recon is scheduled for tomorrow I believe.

[BarryStantonGBP]

pls someone change the title to 10/30 I can't do it 

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

pls someone change the title to 10/30 I can't do it 

 As thread starter, you can edit the title as often as you wish. Just go to the first post here, click on the “…” and then choose “edit”.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 As thread starter, you can edit the title as often as you wish. Just go to the first post here and click on edit.

thanks mate

[Normandy Ho]

Another name coming.  LLC starting to develop 

[WxWatcher007]

93L looks pretty solid for an invest. If it weren’t about to plow into Florida it’d definitely be on the path to development. It really has been a homebrew season so far…

[BarryStantonGBP]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

93L looks pretty solid for an invest. If it weren’t about to plow into Florida it’d definitely be on the path to development. It really has been a homebrew season so far…

Invest 93L
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 14, 2025:
 

Location: 29.6°N 78.0°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1016 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 60 nm

[BarryStantonGBP]

A s2k user said (and I agree):

 

Quote

 

TallyTracker

Category 2

Posts: 732

Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:46 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

•  

#4 by TallyTracker » Mon Jul 14, 2025 1:00 pm 

Just looking at the overall environment and current condition of the disturbance in marginal conditions, I think the development potential is much higher than 30%. The models don’t seem to have a good grasp on this one. I’d say it’s got at least a 50% chance of development. Even the NHC is saying conditions look favorable for development despite the 30%. The ICON’s prediction of a TS to Cat 1 Hurricane seems a reasonable outcome.

 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

The ICON has led the way so far with its appearance on the Atlantic side. I’d keep an eye out along the Gulf coast. There’s a favorable window here. 

[Normandy Ho]

Cats are sleeping in this. Radar presentation is very good for a non TD

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[Newman]

Latest 8pm NHC advisory bumped it up to 40% odds

 

1. East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of Florida continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms primarily south of the center. This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and Tuesday night, eventually moving into the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of this week. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development if the system remains offshore, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf by the middle to latter part of this week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[WxWatcher007]

18z Euro was a bit more bullish with development in the Gulf, but so much depends on what kind of coherent circulation comes off the west coast of Florida and where. 

[GaWx]

 The 18Z UKMET, which shows a 1004 TC at hour 66 at the tip of the SE LA boot (see below), is 6 mb stronger than the 12Z UKMET’s 1010 mb at hour 72. The 12Z run was too weak to be classified as a TC.

[GaWx]

^Followup on UKMET:

-12Z had no TC/lowest SLP 1010 mb
-18Z had a TC/lowest SLP 1004 mb
-0Z is back to no TC/lowest SLP 1013 mb

[GaWx]

0Z Euro: pulled back slightly from the somewhat more bullish 18Z but still fairly similar to it

[GaWx]

6Z models, including formerly bullish ICON, rather unimpressive though UKMET at 1009 mb is a bit stronger than 0Z’s 1013 though nothing like the 18Z’s 1004

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
Satellite and radar data indicate that the shower and thunderstorm
activity associated with the low pressure located just offshore of
the east coast of Florida remains disorganized. This system is
forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and
then reach the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday. Environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for additional development,
and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across
the northeastern and north-central Gulf.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week. Heavy
rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the
north-central Gulf Coast during the middle to latter portions of
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[Kevin Reilly]

On 7/13/2025 at 7:36 AM, GaWx said:

 The ICON has at least been hinting at this since the Wednesday (7/9) runs whereas the other recent operationals have not had much, if anything. Ensemble support is only light.

 If this does occur, it would be an easy win for the Icon.

All depends on how long the feature can stay over water.  The Gulf is pretty much running 88f basin wide from the Florida West Coast and across some areas are even warmer. Remember folks it is only July 15th we have a LONG ways to go here. 

[Kevin Reilly]

On 7/13/2025 at 1:05 PM, GaWx said:

The 12Z Icon has a cat 2-3 (968 mb) hitting near the LA/TX border Fri night after battering much of the LA coast on Thu-Fri fwiw.

Edit: Icon still mainly on its own of 12Z global operationals. CMC does have a weak low further N near the Gulf coast.

I think the pathway for the Icon to be correct is if 93-L went on a further southern track.  Could it happen? It is a plausible solution.  I am in no way comparing this possible tropical development to Katrina but remember Katrinia's path.  Katrina started out moving west towards the Florida coast then it took a turn southwest while strengthening very very rapidly before moving back off to the west and then northwest. (Again, I am only using this note for tracking purposes not intensity)

 

93-L could possibly do the same and tuck under the trough gliding off to its north and move further south then move west before making a turn west-northwest then northwest then making landfall whatever becomes of 93-L as it moves to Louisiana.  We would need to see hints of this at some point today and into tonight though.

 

Looks like the center of 93L which is pretty evident is coming onshore just south of Daytona Beach heading west looking at steering currents most point to westbound but here is quite a southwesterly push down the west coast of Florida currently and some limiting shearing in regard to future intensity that too will need to be monitored in regard to final intensity outcome. 

[Kevin Reilly]

Also just checking the boxes here.  I see the title of this post "Inactive" Season Posting Check In:

 

So, far we are at 3 named systems exactly one year ago we too were at 3 named systems.

On that pace we had 21 named storms last year.

After Record Breaking Category 5 Hurricane Beryl there was a very long pause in development which saw many weeks of Sarhan Dust.

We should NOT let our guard down.  Last year I remembered the same conversations about inactive where are the hurricanes then along came storms like Helene which absolutely devastated inland communities in the southeastern states and Milton to round out the Hurricane season it was pretty bad!

I am very concerned for the future state of the East Coast Florida to Long Island and the entire Gulf Coast right into Texas.  Things are really set up for some historic problems being that multiple areas in the path of potential tropical cyclone paths are picking up record breaking rainfall rates.  The obvious hotbeds for this is Texas, North Carolina, and much of the Mid-Atlantic.

 

Also, I am up here in South Jersey, and we have seen ocean water temps right now sitting at 78-82f pretty toasty.

In closing I unfortunately think we are set up for a pretty bad August to early October and the current state of the weather pattern with the East Coast pretty much open and the Gulf Coast once the trough currently in place retrogrades west towards the Ohio Valley in time. 

 

 

[GaWx]