June Medium/Long Range

[frd]

27 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Interesting "dry" look to the western Atlantic/Caribbean as the heart of hurricane season approaches.

Well, that is interesting, as the Atlantic seems to be warmer closer to the East Coast and the Gulf. Plenty of SST juice if seasonal models are correct , already those areas are above normal. 

Threats may have shorter lead times and develop closer to the EC and the Gulf, but why does the superblend not indicate that, I am not sure at this time. 

[frd]

 

Finally it appears we are headed to a normal temp pattern, to at times above normal, with higher humidity levels. 

 

Eventually we may have the ingredients for a widespread severe weather threat in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic later in the month. Will post that in the severe thread.    

 

 

 

[MillvilleWx]

1 hour ago, frd said:

 

Finally it appears we are headed to a normal temp pattern, to at times above normal, with higher humidity levels. 

 

Eventually we may have the ingredients for a widespread severe weather threat in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic later in the month. Will post that in the severe thread.    

 

 

 

Prime MCS season is almost here for the Midwest and Ohio Valley. We are always under a threat pending the environment when it's expected to our west. This upcoming pattern advertised would give us a better chance. Will need to assess the positioning of the quasi-stationary fronts closely as we move into the later part of the month. Those are the train tracks, per say. 

[mitchnick]

Don't know if anyone bothers to look at it much, but the Cfs2 has been advertising a non-hot summer for weeks insisting on a trough in the east. I know the Cfs2's track record has been sketchy, but it's been showing this since late May, so it deserves some credence. Add to that June temps to date, and I'd give it the benefit of the doubt at this point.

This is a link to July temps and beyond.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025061218&fh=1

P.s. it's showing a wet July and August too.

[frd]

Major heat wave odds are increasing for the Mid Atlantic between June 22 nd and June 25 th. 

[frd]

This progression might indeed happen, heat mid week, followed by a couple days of relative cooling , then a heat wave next week ( worse North of us ) and then moderation again, matching the global wind progressions. Note the worst of the heat moving back West by days 14 to 15. 

 

  

[Weather Will]

If you are looking for hot beach and pool weather looks like the last 10 days of June will grant your wish.  OZ EPS.

[frd]

14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

If you are looking for hot beach and pool weather looks like the last 10 days of June will grant your wish.  OZ EPS.

I expect surf zone temps to be above normal by this time. Good surfing day might be this Friday with left over swell, incoming afternoon high tide and offshore winds, yippee !  

[Paleocene]

13 hours ago, frd said:

Major heat wave odds are increasing for the Mid Atlantic between June 22 nd and June 25 th. 

CPC likes the period