5/15 severe wx

[largetornado]

Starting a thread on this as the parameter space is fairly impressive with cape values exceeding 3500. looks like there will be an EML present which should keep convection limited and the 500-850 crossovers are favorable for discrete. 

[CheeselandSkies]

Would really need to see the timing of the system slow down (by just about 3 hours) compared to recent GFS solutions to maximize the severe threat in Wisconsin/Illinois Thursday afternoon. Today's SPC outlook notes that is in fact a bias with the model, but it continues to hold consistent with that through the current (06Z) run.

[Stebo]

I am fine with the GFS speed, IL doesn't need to get everything lol.

[A-L-E-K]

this is michigan's moment 

[Stebo]

7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

this is michigan's moment 

Timing on Euro is actually similar, the only thing I don't like is that it could extend into the night time. Don't need night time tornadoes.

[CheeselandSkies]

12Z NAM came in pretty spicy. Again, there are some pattern fundamentals that suggest this one has a better chance of verifying a threat than 4/28, namely a pronounced negative tilt and a potent LLJ with a more southerly component. Still some details yet to iron out which held SPC back from pulling the trigger on a 30% zone.