2025-2026 ENSO

[so_whats_happening]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is quite the -PMM developing the last 3 weeks

This is just the wake from Priscilla not sure it really strengthens much beyond that. You can still see the wake from Neoguri from the middle to late September just east of Japan. 

[so_whats_happening]

This is starting to get interesting though the 850mb wind anomalies are starting to show an impressive WWB event taking shape. This happened last year as well around late November early December where it effectively put a hold on the Nina growing and helped induce the EPAC warming along the equator with a secondary event taking shape at the beginning of February further enhancing the Nino state in the EPAC. Let us see if something similar is occurring though about a month in advance compared to last year.

Here is the TAO data for the last month and a half.

 

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually agree with you that this La Niña may end up a hair stronger than last year, after starting my deep dive.

I too would like to see the MEI, if it ever comes out that is. We are very clearly in a stronger and well coupled La Niña atmospheric and oceanic state than last year at this time