2025-2026 ENSO

[EastonSN+]

[GaWx]

 The NOAA Feb NAO will likely come in between +0.35 and +0.60. That would easily be high enough to give us still another winter without low sunspots/not near a solar minimum without a sub -0.25 NAO as I’m projecting -0.13 to -0.20, which I’d classify as neutral. My def. of neutral is between -0.25 and +0.25.
 

 It was headed to sub -0.25 as it was ~-0.45 winter to date as of Feb 14th, but the strong +NAO of the 2nd half of Feb raised the average. So although this was the closest call to finally stopping the non-negative NAO non-low sunspot combo streak, it appears we’ll still be able to say that the only -NAO winters since 1980 (only 6 of them) have been during sub 30 sunspot averaged winters.

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Mitch.

 Although we have to take this CANSIPS run with a huge grain with it being so far out as @snowman19correctly reminded us, it is at least encouraging from my perspective to see this for two reasons:

-decent chance at a much less active ACE hurricane season vs recent years in 2026

-next winter’s E US cold potential

 Regarding next winter, this run for Jan 2027 is colder in practically the entire lower 48 vs the run from one year ago for Jan of 2026:

Current 2m run for Jan ‘27: N America has the largest and most intense area of BN on globe (and vs 1981-2010 to boot) and is slightly colder than last month’s run:

 

One year ago’s 2m run for Jan of ‘26: sig. warmer than new run for Jan ‘27

Edit: I’m going to soon repost this in the El Niño 2026-7 thread and remove the images from this one due to our limitations on attachments as I just realized it better belongs there.

Yeah, I  screwed up putting it inbthus thread. I'll delete my post here and repost it. Then your post will make better sense.