2025-2026 ENSO

[so_whats_happening]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is quite the -PMM developing the last 3 weeks

This is just the wake from Priscilla not sure it really strengthens much beyond that. You can still see the wake from Neoguri from the middle to late September just east of Japan. 

[so_whats_happening]

This is starting to get interesting though the 850mb wind anomalies are starting to show an impressive WWB event taking shape. This happened last year as well around late November early December where it effectively put a hold on the Nina growing and helped induce the EPAC warming along the equator with a secondary event taking shape at the beginning of February further enhancing the Nino state in the EPAC. Let us see if something similar is occurring though about a month in advance compared to last year.

Here is the TAO data for the last month and a half.

 

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually agree with you that this La Niña may end up a hair stronger than last year, after starting my deep dive.

I too would like to see the MEI, if it ever comes out that is. We are very clearly in a stronger and well coupled La Niña atmospheric and oceanic state than last year at this time 

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Big difference in the AO region last year to this year.

But the NAO has been negative every October since 2019.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1955, 1998, and 1999 would have been great analogs if we had a 175-185 ACE season and a strong la nina. We obviously do not have that this year, but for fun, I will do this run:

 

 

Yea, that was a blast-

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

This is starting to get interesting though the 850mb wind anomalies are starting to show an impressive WWB event taking shape. This happened last year as well around late November early December where it effectively put a hold on the Nina growing and helped induce the EPAC warming along the equator with a secondary event taking shape at the beginning of February further enhancing the Nino state in the EPAC. Let us see if something similar is occurring though about a month in advance compared to last year.

Here is the TAO data for the last month and a half.

 

I think the primary impact will be to ensure this event remains pretty east-based heading into winter...it's been exceedingly difficult to marry any subsurface cold to substantive trades over the western flank.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I too would like to see the MEI, if it ever comes out that is. We are very clearly in a stronger and well coupled La Niña atmospheric and oceanic state than last year at this time 

I mean, I'm talking about 0.1 to 0.2 ONI and very comparable RONI....so pretty trivial in that regard, but yea...perhaps the MEI disparity would be a bit more worthy of discussion. Sucks we don't have that.

I think this marginal difference may be the difference between making an official La Niña this year vs failing last year.....I originally didn't think that we would go official, but am reconsidering.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

But the NAO has been negative every October since 2019.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

Yea, the wave length differences have made fall more invulnerable to some of these perturbations that are speculatively linked to CC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@Stormchaserchuck1I wonder if we try to see a Modoki El Niño next year....pretty comparable subsurface profile to 1967, which led into the 1968-1969 El Niño.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah.. the La Nina is just about no more on the latest TAO/Triton subsurface. I think the N. Pacific pattern is more based on the ENSO subsurface near the thermocline, so I personally wouldn't use La Nina analogs for this Winter. 96-97 is a good example of negative-neutral ENSO with warmer water starting to develop in the subsurface.