TV Severe Weather2025-?

[jaxjagman]

15 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

The Great Plains may have a good week. First we have this Tuesday trouble in Illinois, which may relaod on Thursday.

The real Alley is up on Wednesday and perhaps again on Friday. There's no place like Kansas - except both the tornadoes and the Jayhawks have been in a coma the last 4 seasons. 

Looks like the early week Illinois system never sends a front our way. After Plains / Midwest system number 2 we should have thunderstorms in the Mid-South on Saturday. Timing and weakening LLJ limit severe chances IMHO. Then on Sunday we'd like to see skies quickly clear for Easter. 

Cool trough is forecast early next week. Next system is forecast late next week into that weekend. April 12th anyone? Oh my!

2015?

We had a ice storm that winter,severe was literally non-existent which that year proceeded into a strong NINO later in 2015.

Who knows,snowstorm in Jan 2016?That was the most snow we got here in decades.Seems like the potential flooding of Pac air this winter upcoming,AN temps should be the main course

[jaxjagman]

On 3/29/2026 at 1:40 PM, jaxjagman said:

Think it could get active as we get into April for a bit.The problem with the MJO is the ERW in which caused twin cyclones and has caused social media hysteria like its never happened before from a ERW.But this is from the Coriolis effect,which makes storms on both sides of the equator and move east to west

Its like living the Polar Vortex again since what,OVER decade ago?But this has happened since at least the dinosaur era and beyond ?..LOL

I dunno,seems like to me the MJO has been back into Africa the last few days,its caused lots of deaths in that region from floods and the MJO signal is getting totally destroyed by this ERW

 

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=944978871593738&id=100082449006961&http_ref=eyJ0cyI6MTc3NTMxNTg5MDAwMCwiciI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC93d3cuZmFjZWJvb2suY29tXC9zaGFyZVwvcFwvMURQUHFEaUFmSFwvP21pYmV4dGlkPXd3WElmciJ9 marginal and slight risk issued


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[nrgjeff]

Memphis Pyramid Effect.. or the Great Wall of the Mississippi River.. or a stubborn Southeast Ridge. My chips are on the latter. Frustrating!

[jaxjagman]

LOL @ Jeff,you know i was thinking the same thing a couple days ago,that damn MS River,but its the SER like you said,convection into our parts stops west of the River,im still kinda surprised a good chunk of ARK is worse off than we are in TN with the drought

Nothing eye popping the next week,some parts should flirt with record temps upcoming the next few days.

But there is light at the end of the tunnel,a pattern change is upcoming seemingly ATM

The MJO should strenghten  into the WH as it looks like Rossby/Kelvin waves interact with each other to strenghten the MJO signal sorta speaking as it heads into Africa

[*Flash*]

9 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

LOL @ Jeff,you know i was thinking the same thing a couple days ago,that damn MS River,but its the SER like you said,convection into our parts stops west of the River,im still kinda surprised a good chunk of ARK is worse off than we are in TN with the drought

Nothing eye popping the next week,some parts should flirt with record temps upcoming the next few days.

But there is light at the end of the tunnel,a pattern change is upcoming seemingly ATM

The MJO should strenghten  into the WH as it looks like Rossby/Kelvin waves interact with each other to strenghten the MJO signal sorta speaking as it heads into Africa

I'll take any pattern change at this point. I can't recall the last time we were this warm and dry so early with little to show in the moisture/severe weather potential departments. The past month has been like 2007 and 2012 hooking up. No bueno. 

[jaxjagman]

4 hours ago, *Flash* said:

I'll take any pattern change at this point. I can't recall the last time we were this warm and dry so early with little to show in the moisture/severe weather potential departments. The past month has been like 2007 and 2012 hooking up. No bueno. 

Maybe we'll get a big snow into our area this upcoming winter,Nino  does fairly well with Moderate to strong Ninos,they always produce,but the winter in whole should be AN  temps,typically Dec should be fairly  warm.

[GBOVolz]

Severe season didn’t even wave as she went by


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[jaxjagman]

3 hours ago, GBOVolz said:

Severe season didn’t even wave as she went by


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Oh i agree with you,but at least we are seeing the tropical convection getting displaced in the upcoming days,we havent seen this in quite some time,which seems to be by a Rossby Wave in the EP and not WP

[GBOVolz]

Oh i agree with you,but at least we are seeing the tropical convection getting displaced in the upcoming days,we havent seen this in quite some time,which seems to be by a Rossby Wave in the EP and not WP

That’s good.


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[jaxjagman]

We havent seen this in quite some time,while the CFS can overdue the MJO for certain,its been fairly consistent,either way its gonna knock off that pesky Mid Atl ridge,we have some wiggle room anyways as we head into the 3rd week of April,the typhooon is another story tho,its recurving to far east offf  of Japan and building heights from East China through the Sea of Japan,you're probably gonna see  ridge building back in the east down the road, rather see the storm going though,Korea or for the matter China

[nrgjeff]

Severe season in the South is captured in the classic John Candy Vacation quip. Sorry folks park's closed.

Cannot find the GIF on any source. Must be licensing BS. Anyway the cancellation is good news for those with storm anxiety. 

CFS wants to get into more active phases, but the EC and GEFS weeklies don't seem interested. We'll see.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Marginal risk issued for majority of tn valley and slight risk in Arkansas


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[*Flash*]

I'm confused as to why a Severe Thunderstorm Watch wasn't issued for parts of Middle Tennessee last night. We had plenty of warnings west of town and trees/power lines down throughout Dickson County (among others). IMHO, a watch should have been set based on ground truth coming out of Kentucky. I know SPC works with the local offices on these things. Certainly, OHX did their job on the warning side. I'm sure pro mets can speak to this better than I could, but either way, I got to think it's not a great look when you have warnings plastered on a RVA grid without the watch backdrop.

 

[GBOVolz]

I'm confused as to why a Severe Thunderstorm Watch wasn't issued for parts of Middle Tennessee last night. We had plenty of warnings west of town last night and trees/power lines down throughout Dickson County (among others). IMHO, a watch should have been set based on ground truth coming out of Kentucky. I know SPC works with the local offices on these things. Certainly, OHX did their job on the warning side. I'm sure pro mets can speak to this better than I could, but either way, I got to think it's not a great look when you have warnings plastered on a RVA grid without the watch backdrop.
 

To be fair… none of the cams had that MCS like structure move through middle Tennessee. A couple of the mods had a system like that, but they had the system track more from Northern Arkansas, Southeast through Western Tennessee into northern Mississippi, Alabama. That’s why a slight risk was put out in the area where the mods had the cluster tracking. However, I do believe that looking at the atmospheric conditions of middle Tennessee yesterday afternoon, once those storms fired and it was obvious they were headed toward middle Tennessee, I do agree I think a watch was appropriate for that area. I’m not even sure that a MD was put out just to talk about the system.


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[*Flash*]

5 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

To be fair… none of the cams had that MCS like structure move through middle Tennessee. A couple of the mods had a system like that, but they had the system track more from Northern Arkansas, Southeast through Western Tennessee into northern Mississippi, Alabama. That’s why a slight risk was put out in the area where the mods had the cluster tracking. However, I do believe that looking at the atmospheric conditions of middle Tennessee yesterday afternoon, once those storms fired and it was obvious they were headed toward middle Tennessee, I do agree I think a watch was appropriate for that area. I’m not even sure that a MD was put out just to talk about the system.


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Exactly. I get that primary cluster was overperforming into the mid-state but there was still time to issue a watch. SPC did issue a MD highlighting counties, though by then, the deck had been reshuffled and those established risk zones were obsolete. 99.9% of people aren’t paying attention to those discussions unless they’re promoted by a local weather authority. Bottom line: The now-casting reluctance is a tad concerning. Hopefully, SPC isn’t as gun-shy next time.