BooneWX Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 Already down to 37 this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 18 Author Share Posted November 18 31.9 so far. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 29.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 31.5….the lake heat is wearing off. Nice to slow the grass down, I’m tired of mowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Realistically if you look at statistics and probability, we should break our drought of not having winter storm warning criteria this winter. We have had 1 WSW system (3 or 4 inches of snow or more) since January 2019 for most of our area and that was Jan 2022. The cold being delayed is common and we have all seen this song and dance many times in December. Sometimes it comes later in the month, sometimes in January and sometimes only marginally. We really need the SSW to work in our favor and displace the cold on this side of the northern hemisphere and we need blocking. The Pacific will rarely help us this winter IMO. We need a strong-NAO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 59 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Realistically if you look at statistics and probability, we should break our drought of not having winter storm warning criteria this winter. We have had 1 WSW system (3 or 4 inches of snow or more) since January 2019 for most of our area and that was Jan 2022. The cold being delayed is common and we have all seen this song and dance many times in December. Sometimes it comes later in the month, sometimes in January and sometimes only marginally. We really need the SSW to work in our favor and displace the cold on this side of the northern hemisphere and we need blocking. The Pacific will rarely help us this winter IMO. We need a strong-NAO. Agree on all points. I’ve got a good feeling about this winter. I think we muster at least one good storm that gets us to climo. The models NEVER showed a cold SE the first week/week and a half of Dec. Idk why there are so many conversations online about can kicking. A few OP runs tried to anchor the cold prematurely and now people are over worried about what the GFS and Euro ops show beyond 300 hrs. It’s just noise. Phase 7 is going to do phase 7 things. The ridge will flex a bit and all of this is going to be a step down process like it always is. We went through this same song and dance last December and it ended up being the coldest winter in a while, too much so, in fact. It was suppression city after Christmas. I think after we see a few cutters, my gut says it’s game on beyond Dec 15th just based on where the MJO is likely headed. And that’s fine. I’m not a huge fan of pissing phase 8 and potentially phase 1 down the pot from Thanksgiving to Christmas. It’s going to take a really high amplitude pass through those phases to deliver in what’s essentially late fall. I like what I’m seeing line up. I think this pattern offers some future potential for something we haven’t seen a lot through the years: anchored highs in favorable locations and storms riding the boundary to the south. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Also re long range: trash the GFS, all of us need to. It performed miserably this tropical season. It might’ve been the least reliable global. I’ll take a gander at the ensembles for this winter but the OP needs to hold as much credence as the Icon at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 21 Author Share Posted November 21 Looking for a sneaky surprise that pops up under 48 hours…. Maybe . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted Thursday at 07:40 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 07:40 AM Happy thanksgiving folks! Going to be a nice cooler day today! Cheers! . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Thursday at 08:21 AM Share Posted Thursday at 08:21 AM 40 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Happy thanksgiving folks! Going to be a nice cooler day today! Cheers! . Same to you @strongwxnc! Everyone enjoy the turkey and the first taste of winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Friday at 09:05 AM Share Posted Friday at 09:05 AM 23 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 09:49 AM Share Posted Friday at 09:49 AM Weird night here. I suppose the wind speed stayed elevated. Went to 28, spiked to 33, back down to 30 pre-dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Friday at 09:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:01 PM 26 already. Maybe we crack the teens for the first time this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 09:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:17 PM 16 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 26 already. Maybe we crack the teens for the first time this winter? You may do it, sure enough. Thinking I might bottom out around 24-25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Friday at 09:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:54 PM Tuesday morning could be interesting for the escarpment and immediate lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted Saturday at 07:45 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 07:45 AM 19.6 for the low. Horses broke the chains on two gates. Just shot some fixing them. That’s what happens when you introduce a new one ! It’s cold out . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Saturday at 08:44 AM Share Posted Saturday at 08:44 AM 22.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Saturday at 08:47 AM Share Posted Saturday at 08:47 AM 19 here also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted Saturday at 03:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:58 PM 20.8 for my low this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Going to interesting to see if I qualify for "higher elevation" Pleasant Gardens overnight tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 9 minutes ago, mercurydime said: Going to interesting to see if I qualify for "higher elevation" Pleasant Gardens overnight tonight. Usually in these setups its above 2.5k or 3k ft. Sometimes it will be nothing until your close to the top of Old Fort Mountain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 27 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Usually in these setups its above 2.5k or 3k ft. Sometimes it will be nothing until your close to the top of Old Fort Mountain. That's how I'm tending. There will be ice on Hoover, Greenlee, and Long Ridge mountains, here right behind the house, but at twice my elevation. There have been a couple times in my 22 years in this location where I had ice at the house but none down on Hwy 70. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago If we could get Friday to unfold how the Euro envisions it, the nostalgia would be high. Classic 2-3” with a glaze on top. It was systems like that which made fond memories growing up, not just the whoppers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmoon Posted 47 minutes ago Share Posted 47 minutes ago 25 minutes ago, BooneWX said: If we could get Friday to unfold how the Euro envisions it, the nostalgia would be high. Classic 2-3” with a glaze on top. It was systems like that which made fond memories growing up, not just the whoppers. Yes sir! Those smaller events were some of the best back in the day. We used to get them so much in the foothills back in the 80s and 90s. Hopefully we can reel this one in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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