2025 foothills Thread

[BooneWX]

Already down to 37 this evening 

[strongwxnc]

31.9 so far.


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[wncsnow]

29.8

[BooneWX]

31.5….the lake heat is wearing off. Nice to slow the grass down, I’m tired of mowing. 

[wncsnow]

Realistically if you look at statistics and probability, we should break our drought of not having winter storm warning criteria this winter. We have had 1 WSW system (3 or 4 inches of snow or more) since January 2019 for most of our area and that was Jan 2022. 

The cold being delayed is common and we have all seen this song and dance many times in December. Sometimes it comes later in the month, sometimes in January and sometimes only marginally. We really need the SSW to work in our favor and displace the cold on this side of the northern hemisphere and we need blocking. The Pacific will rarely help us this winter IMO. We need a strong-NAO. 

[BooneWX]

59 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Realistically if you look at statistics and probability, we should break our drought of not having winter storm warning criteria this winter. We have had 1 WSW system (3 or 4 inches of snow or more) since January 2019 for most of our area and that was Jan 2022. 

The cold being delayed is common and we have all seen this song and dance many times in December. Sometimes it comes later in the month, sometimes in January and sometimes only marginally. We really need the SSW to work in our favor and displace the cold on this side of the northern hemisphere and we need blocking. The Pacific will rarely help us this winter IMO. We need a strong-NAO. 

Agree on all points. I’ve got a good feeling about this winter. I think we muster at least one good storm that gets us to climo. 
 

The models NEVER showed a cold SE the first week/week and a half of Dec. Idk why there are so many conversations online about can kicking. A few OP runs tried to anchor the cold prematurely and now people are over worried about what the GFS and Euro ops show beyond 300 hrs. It’s just noise. Phase 7 is going to do phase 7 things. The ridge will flex a bit and all of this is going to be a step down process like it always is. We went through this same song and  dance last December and it ended up being the coldest winter in a while, too much so, in fact. It was suppression city after Christmas. I think after we see a few cutters, my gut says it’s game on beyond Dec 15th just based on where the MJO is likely headed. And that’s fine. I’m not a huge fan of pissing phase 8 and potentially phase 1 down the pot from Thanksgiving to Christmas. It’s going to take a really high amplitude pass through those phases to deliver in what’s essentially late fall. I like what I’m seeing line up. I think this pattern offers some future potential for something we haven’t seen a lot through the years: anchored highs in favorable locations and storms riding the boundary to the south. 

[BooneWX]

Also re long range: trash the GFS, all of us need to. It performed miserably this tropical season. It might’ve been the least reliable global. I’ll take a gander at the ensembles for this winter but the OP needs to hold as much credence as the Icon at range.