2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

This 7/9/25 CSU update was just posted at storm 2K: note that this isn’t anywhere close to saying “season cancel” as it is merely a slight decrease to still slightly above activity vs the recent active era: ACE dropped from 155 to 140, which is still 18 greater than 1991-2020 avg:

 

CSU July 9 update

We have decreased our forecast slightly and now call for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season. The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear. High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons. However, we also anticipate the tropical Pacific to be characterized by ENSO neutral conditions. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.

 

Analog years for 2025 with the associated hurricane activity listed for each year.
Year NS NSD H HD MH MHD ACE NTC
2001 15 68.75 9 25.50 4 4.25 110.1 135.3
2008 16 88.25 8 30.50 5 7.50 145.7 162.3
2011 19 89.75 7 26.00 4 4.50 126.3 144.9
2021 21 79.75 7 27.75 4 12.75 145.6 173.7
Average 17.8 81.6 7.8 27.4 4.3 7.3 131.9 154.0
2025 Forecast 16 80 8 30 3 8 140 145

Fair enough but I’m mostly relying on Gary lezak

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, nvck said:

What are we doing here? This is no better (worse, maybe?) than just throwing darts at a map and calendar and claiming to know when storms are gonna hit

Worse than Jim Witt

[BarryStantonGBP]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m sorry but this is crap. No one can predict landfall locations more then a week out better then climatology. Even with AI. 

 

2 hours ago, nvck said:

What are we doing here? This is no better (worse, maybe?) than just throwing darts at a map and calendar and claiming to know when storms are gonna hit

 

3 hours ago, crownweather said:

Agreed.  It's complete crap.  None of the dates listed so far have verified in terms of activity.  The dates leading up to the 4th is when we had Chantal, which occurred in the Carolinas, not the TX/LA coasts. 

Also, there is NO peer reviewed papers (or any papers at all) on how Lezak comes up with this numbers.  If you ask him (I have), he either brushes you off or blocks you.    

tales and whines from bradford

lezak > mainstream

 

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Worse than Jim Witt

 

Just now, BarryStantonGBP said:

 

 

tales and whines from bradford

lezak > mainstream

 

 

lezak > mainstream forecasters

keep that noise down or I'll get bradford city council on you

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

and yes I will keep posting sources from Zach fradella and gary lezak throughout the season 

[crownweather]

8 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

 

lezak > mainstream forecasters

keep that noise down or I'll get bradford city council on you

 

Wow and that's why I'm really glad there's a ignore member feature on this forum.  You've now been placed on my ignore list. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

23 minutes ago, crownweather said:

Wow and that's why I'm really glad there's a ignore member feature on this forum.  You've now been placed on my ignore list. 

 

I will stay loyal to the church of saint Lezak and Fradella

here's 2023 for example (was 20/7/3)

 

crown:

 

saint lezak:

Keep writing essays bro!

[dbullsfan]

Damn, that was worse than the guy last year who kept using nothing but hipster lingo that 80% of the people couldn’t understand.


.

[BarryStantonGBP]

12 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

Damn, that was worse than the guy last year who kept using nothing but hipster lingo that 80% of the people couldn’t understand.


.

 

[crownweather]

2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

 

I will stay loyal to the church of saint Lezak and Fradella

here's 2023 for example (was 20/7/3)

 

crown:

 

saint lezak:

Keep writing essays bro!

Interesting and telling that you picked & chose what parts of my forecast.  The entire map from 2023's hurricane season forecast from myself called for a very high risk of a landfall for exactly where Idalia made landfall.  Also very high threat for a impact for E North Carolina right where TS Ophelia made landfall.

I'd love to see where LRC forecast their landfalls for 2023 and compare them to mine.      

So, to answer your question - yes, I'll certainly keep "writing essays bro", just like I have since the early 1990s.    

Now, you're going on my ignore/block list as I don't have the oxygen to deal with your cult like obsession with LRC. 

My 2023 forecast:



The actual tracks for the 2023 hurricane season: 

[BarryStantonGBP]

4 minutes ago, crownweather said:

Interesting and telling that you picked & chose what parts of my forecast.  The entire map from 2023's hurricane season forecast from myself called for a very high risk of a landfall for exactly where Idalia made landfall.  Also very high threat for a impact for E North Carolina right where TS Ophelia made landfall.

I'd love to see where LRC forecast their landfalls for 2023 and compare them to mine.      

So, to answer your question - yes, I'll certainly keep "writing essays bro", just like I have since the early 1990s.    

My 2023 forecast:



The actual tracks for the 2023 hurricane season: 

not a quark pal

lezak beats out the bradford forecasting centre

[BarryStantonGBP]

14 minutes ago, crownweather said:

Interesting and telling that you picked & chose what parts of my forecast.  The entire map from 2023's hurricane season forecast from myself called for a very high risk of a landfall for exactly where Idalia made landfall.  Also very high threat for a impact for E North Carolina right where TS Ophelia made landfall.

I'd love to see where LRC forecast their landfalls for 2023 and compare them to mine.      

So, to answer your question - yes, I'll certainly keep "writing essays bro", just like I have since the early 1990s.    

My 2023 forecast:



The actual tracks for the 2023 hurricane season: 

so did saint lezak

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

now here's a storm2k post I actually agree with

 

Quote

Let me preface things with this: I'm very willing to eat crow and own up to it if what I'm about to say is proven to be wrong in the end. However....I personally think that some of the speculations (especially on various wx social media posts online) that stability this year is going to be a major problem and detriment to overall Atlantic impacts/activity because of the warm subtropics are a *tad bit* overblown. Here's why I think that is the case. 

Here's where we are now, sst anomaly configuation-wise:



Speaks for itself. Subtropics are much warmer than average. Deep tropics are somewhat warmer than average.


This is late August 2017:



Honestly, at least in the Atlantic, sort of similar to what we're seeing now. Warm deep tropics, cool band just to the north, and warm subtropics. Also, check out the very warm waters near Greenland, Iceland, and the UK.

Now, you would think that if it was as simple as warm subtropics robs deep tropics action, then that time period would've seen very little activity. However, check the date. This was what the Atlantic looked like between Harvey's devastating Texas landfall and Irma's birth. The true story is anything but quiet!


And now, late August 2022:


Now THIS...this is how you're going to get serious stability problems. The subtropics are INSANELY warmer than average, and the deep tropics are only somewhat warmer than average. This image of the Atlantic was around the notorious wavebreaking/mid-level dry air period when not a single named storm was able to form.


So...I guess my point here is, unless 2025 experiences as drastic as a warmup as 2022, especially with the subtropics/tropics sst anomaly discrepancy, then I'd have to imagine that stability would only go so far as to hamper the season. The long range models have their ideas, and we rightfully and obviously go off of them to make judgements. But...the facts present themselves as well. We already had 3 named storms (if wavebreaking/mid-level dry air was such an issue now, then I highly doubt we would've even seen named storms form), 2 of which ended up becoming impactful systems (Barry a weak but bona fide tropical-born system and Chantal a Carolinas tropical storm right at the cusp of what could've been a robust strengthening phase). Are the subtropics being anomalously warm really that big of a problem, at least as of recently?

 

[Roger]

I thought Storm2k Had been closed. When I go to that site I get a 403 message.I was confused as i have seen a few references to it.

[BarryStantonGBP]

4 minutes ago, Roger said:

I thought Storm2k Had been closed. When I go to that site I get a 403 message.I was confused as i have seen a few references to it.

can you access it or is access still rotted out for you

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

now here's a storm2k post I actually agree with

 

 

-That poster has “cat 5” in the name and identifies as an early 20s pre-med college student per his/her profile.

-That person, who has been posting there since the 2021 season, comes across as intelligent and writes well. However, he/she is also a permabull. I recall no clearly bearish seasonal posts from him/her these last 4+ seasons.

-The bullish bias is hinted at by the wording used in that post you just posted:

 1. doesn’t think stability will be a major “problem”; stability is a “problem” from perspective of someone who wants more activity

2. “Are the subtropics being anomalously warm really that big of a problem”…uses the word “problem” in a similar way

  

[BarryStantonGBP]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

-That poster has “cat 5” in the name and identifies as an early 20s pre-med college student per his/her profile.

-That person, who has been posting there since the 2021 season, comes across as intelligent and writes well. However, he/she is also a permabull. I recall no clearly bearish seasonal posts from him/her these last 4+ seasons.

-The bullish bias is hinted at by the wording used in that post you just posted:

 1. doesn’t think stability will be a major “problem”; stability is a “problem” from perspective of someone who wants more activity

2. “Are the subtropics being anomalously warm really that big of a problem”…uses the word “problem” in a similar way

  

So you’re saying you’re ignoring them because they’re not a boomer

Got it

 

and “permabull” = nobody cares. They usually end up being right.

 

Bearish posts = almost always ends up being wrong at some point and that’s why I will continue to predict a 2017 type season 

Bearish posts are always made by down casters who think emotionally and not realistically 

 

bearish posts always point out their povs by using broken models that usually turn out to be wrong anyway 

the bearish posts usually end up being from wishcasters who want a break from activity 

 

but let’s face it

 

that ain’t happening anytime soon 

 

so let me get this straight

 

if you’re not a boomer

your take = permabull

therefore = doesn’t count

 

got it

 

permabull = the guy who’s actually right

meanwhile “bearish” posts

always “models say”—then models flop

every. single. time.

 

it’s always the same

bearish = just wishcasters who want to binge netflix and not hear about storms for 3 months

never fails

they get one “stable pattern” in may june July even early or mid august, think it’s a break year

by August or september they’re radio silent

 

when’s the last time a bearish preseason post aged well 

ian and Fiona are chomping on popcorn as I speak 

seriously

 

and the whole “permabull” thing

just means you’re under 50 and notice the basin hasn’t had a real bust in like 10 years

but yeah, keep filtering out anyone who isn’t typing like a boomer

 

newsflash: ocean doesn’t care about your feelings

 

bearish = broken model hopium

permabull = actually right

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

-That poster has “cat 5” in the name and identifies as an early 20s pre-med college student per his/her profile.

-That person, who has been posting there since the 2021 season, comes across as intelligent and writes well. However, he/she is also a permabull. I recall no clearly bearish seasonal posts from him/her these last 4+ seasons.

-The bullish bias is hinted at by the wording used in that post you just posted:

 1. doesn’t think stability will be a major “problem”; stability is a “problem” from perspective of someone who wants more activity

2. “Are the subtropics being anomalously warm really that big of a problem”…uses the word “problem” in a similar way

  

“Bullish” = opinion of a younger person

got it

[BarryStantonGBP]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

-That poster has “cat 5” in the name and identifies as an early 20s pre-med college student per his/her profile.

-That person, who has been posting there since the 2021 season, comes across as intelligent and writes well. However, he/she is also a permabull. I recall no clearly bearish seasonal posts from him/her these last 4+ seasons.

-The bullish bias is hinted at by the wording used in that post you just posted:

 1. doesn’t think stability will be a major “problem”; stability is a “problem” from perspective of someone who wants more activity

2. “Are the subtropics being anomalously warm really that big of a problem”…uses the word “problem” in a similar way

  

Reminder: 

 

20

KANSAS CITY, MO, UNITED STATES, September 4, 2024 /EINPresswire.com/ -- While the meteorological community braces for an inaccurate hurricane season prediction from most sources, Weather 20/20 stands apart, marking the third consecutive year of leading predictions in the meteorological community. Utilizing its innovative and patent pending Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) methodology, Weather 20/20 has consistently outperformed forecasts from universities, government agencies, and private meteorological firms. 

Dominating Seasonal Forecasting with Precision

This year’s Atlantic hurricane season has left many experts puzzled, with major forecasters predicting a highly active season. The University of Pennsylvania forecasted 27-39 named storms, Weather Bell expected 25-30, and Colorado State University predicted 20-27, as shown on the Barcelona Supercomputing Center site, which tracks these seasonal predictions. In contrast, Weather 20/20’s forecast of 14-19 named storms has proven more aligned with the season’s slow first half.

To date, there have been only five named storms, two below the average, yet still within the range predicted by Weather 20/20. In contrast, the forecasts of the 25 other organizations are resembling the efforts of a confused quarterback for a disorganized team—scrambling under pressure and nearing mathematical elimination for the 2024 season.

God save our gracious King!
Long live our noble King!
God save the King!
Send him victorious,
Happy and glorious,
Long to reign over us,
God save the King!

The Scientific Reasons for The Lower Number of Named Storms

Gary Lezak, Founder & CEO of Weather 20/20 explains, “Our accurate predictions are not coincidental but are based on the solid foundations of the LRC, which observed early signs of a milder hurricane season as far back as November 2023. Moreover, while other forecasting models heavily relied on an expected shift from El Niño to La Niña – which did not materialize as anticipated – our forecasts were grounded in the consistent pattern of the LRC.” 

Endorsements from the Field

Chris Huggins, Operation Manager for Operation BBQ Relief, attests to the precision of Weather 20/20’s forecasts: “We have relied on their incredibly accurate predictions for over five years, which have consistently allowed us ample time, weeks to prepare for disaster relief efforts.” 

Predicting Where & When Significant Weather Events Will Occur

Weather 20/20’s expertise extends beyond seasonal forecasting to precise predictions of specific weather disasters. The accuracy was highlighted earlier this season with Hurricanes Debby, Beryl, and Ernesto, and historically with major hurricane disasters like Harvey and Ida. “Our forecasts provide up to 91% accuracy in predicting severe weather events, offering vital insights that significantly enhance preparedness and response strategies, and help businesses make profitable supply, demand, and staffing decisions,” states Lezak.

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

-That poster has “cat 5” in the name and identifies as an early 20s pre-med college student per his/her profile.

-That person, who has been posting there since the 2021 season, comes across as intelligent and writes well. However, he/she is also a permabull. I recall no clearly bearish seasonal posts from him/her these last 4+ seasons.

-The bullish bias is hinted at by the wording used in that post you just posted:

 1. doesn’t think stability will be a major “problem”; stability is a “problem” from perspective of someone who wants more activity

2. “Are the subtropics being anomalously warm really that big of a problem”…uses the word “problem” in a similar way

  

The ocean doesn’t care about bearish feelings

the atmosphere doesn’t care about bearish feelings

clinatology doesn’t care about bearish feelings

 

Someone said:

Fwiw EPS has it finally returning to a favorable phase the first half of August. I know in recent years we've mostly had to wait until the final two weeks of the month for activity, but I would assume this would open a potential window in the deep tropics around that timeframe.

1 likes   

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

RIP Andy's Netflix subscription

 

[GaWx]

 The posters/forecasters I favor the heaviest have neither a bullish nor a bearish bias from my perspective.

[BarryStantonGBP]

L to EPS Caribbean shear

[BarryStantonGBP]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The posters/forecasters I favor the heaviest have neither a bullish nor a bearish bias from my perspective.

Category5Kaiju has great points

He should visit here

[BarryStantonGBP]

TO ALL BEARISH POSTERS AND WX METS:

The MDR has been rapidly warming during the last two weeks!

• June 25: 26.76C (0.00C anomaly)
• July 10: 27.33C (0.38C anomaly)

It's currently getting close to the +0.60C value we had in 2020 (YES, the spam year) at this time of the year.

Give it another two weeks of similar warming, wed be around the same level as 2005 (one of my analogs along with 2005, 2017, 1996, 2021).

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

TO ALL BEARISH POSTERS AND WX METS:

The MDR has been rapidly warming during the last two weeks!

• June 25: 26.76C (0.00C anomaly)
• July 10: 27.33C (0.38C anomaly)

It's currently getting close to the +0.60C value we had in 2020 (YES, the spam year) at this time of the year.

Give it another two weeks of similar warming, wed be around the same level as 2005 (one of my analogs along with 2005, 2017, 1996, 2021).

This is another S2K repost for those who don’t realize it. You should be giving credit to others when you copy their posts.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

This is another S2K repost for those who don’t realize it. You should be giving credit to others when you copy their posts.

How do I quote the user then

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

How do I quote the user then

I’m just saying that you should preface the repost by saying something like “Here’s a copy of a post from a Storm2K poster”.

[BarryStantonGBP]

Just now, GaWx said:

I’m just saying that you should preface the repost by saying something like “Here’s a copy of a post from a Storm2K poster”.

K