Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations

[Powerball]

BTW, 2024 is also the 5th warmest year to-date on record for DFW (warmer than both 2022 and 2023 to-date), even with a January that was well below average.

 

[Stx_Thunder]

On 6/20/2024 at 3:56 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

That system looks like it will be less of a rainmaker this far N, the slop gyre is weakening and shifting W as the ECUSA ridge builds back.  Mid level humidity is lower and heights will be higher/  GFS and GEFS show only the lower RGV topping 2 inches and MBY getting about one half inch.  DFW at near 1.8" PW still has subsidence and a large dry later from 700 to 400 mb per GFS..

Wouldn't expect to see the totals TS Alberto brought. But wouldn’t expect it at all, to be dry this weekend either. Anything tropical (even just a popcorn shower) can actually have a downpour.

Even today still getting some cells moving onshore about the region. Brownsville & Corpus VWP radars showing LL flow starting to tilt northeastward. So that next trop entity going into the SW Gulf is starting to gain cyclonic characteristics.

-

Can’t also forget back in May (especially the way things have gone since the past month), that the models/ensembles literally promised us the furnace High would’ve came in and just dominated this month in June. But…, that just didn’t happen.

If PW stays 1.7” at least, around the coastal region through next week (after next SW Gulf entity) which is fairly probable all things considered now, can still get at least some cells popping up about the typical daily inland moving sea breeze front. Also still seeing notable thunder probs (at least 10 - 20% areas) on multi-global model consensus into next weekend (to end June).

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

4 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Wouldn't expect to see the totals TS Alberto brought. But wouldn’t expect it at all, to be dry this weekend either. Anything tropical (even just a popcorn shower) can have a downpour.

Even today still getting some cells moving onshore about the region. Brownsville & Corpus VWP radars showing LL flow starting to tilt northeastward. So that next trop entity going into the SW Gulf is starting to gain cyclonic characteristics.

-

Can’t also forget (especially the way things have gone since the past month), that the models/ensembles literally promised us the furnace High would’ve came in and just dominated this month in June. But…, that just didn’t happen.

If PW stays 1.7” at least, around the coastal region through next week (after next SW Gulf entity) which is fairly probable all things considered now, can still get at least some cells popping up about the typical daily inland moving sea breeze front. Also still seeing sporadic, notable thunder probs (at least 10 - 20% areas) on multi-global model consensus even through next weekend (to end June).

 

If 2 inches happens in the lower RGV that is a good thing, and not a negligible amount. 

 

10% is a normal sea breeze day if we're not under the death ridge.  Had a 2 minute long downpour, which came after gusty winds, as the sea breeze passed.  It has grown some friends, but isn't an extensive sea breeze.  BTW, I am following hints on ensembles for something in the BoC or Caribbean on ensembles.  Op Euro suggests a wave gets enhanced coming into the Caribbean,

[Powerball]

And it begins. DFW observed its first 100*F high of the season today, 3 days earlier than last year and a day earlier than average.

[Powerball]

In all likelihood, DFW should also see its first 80*F low of the season tomorrow...

[Powerball]

DFW may have tied the record low minimum of 82*F this morning, which was just set last year.

[Powerball]

DFW achieved an intra-hour high of 100*F today, 2nd time this season.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

IAH may finally hit 100F tomorrow.  GFS and Canadian both show a hint of a backdoor front into E. Texas Monday, with increased PWs, but not much in the way of rain.

[cstrunk]

Keeping an eye on Beryl...

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

757 
SXUS74 KFWD 302139
RERDFW

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
435 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024

...RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT DALLAS/FORT WORTH...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT DFW AIRPORT THIS MORNING WAS 82 DEGREES. THIS 
BREAKS THE RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR JUNE 30 OF 80 
DEGREES, SET PREVIOUSLY IN 2023, 2020, AND 1979.

$$

[Powerball]

DFW set new record maximum lows both on 6/29 and 6/30, with lows of 81F and 82F respectively.

[Powerball]

Models are gonna model with their ridiculous outputs, but logically with the timing of the incoming "deep" trough, I only see 2 realistic outcomes with Beryl as far as possible Texas impacts:

1. A recurvature in the GOM before it reaches Texas, with any/all meaningful impacts confined to Louisiana and eastward.

2. Only parts of South Texas getting skirted with moisture/precip (similar to Alberto) as it slides progressively into/across Mexico

#2 would be ideal to help extend the "cool down" for the region.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

Models are gonna model with their ridiculous outputs, but logically with the timing of the incoming "deep" trough, I only see 2 realistic outcomes with Beryl as far as possible Texas impacts:

1. A recurvature in the GOM before it reaches Texas, with any/all meaningful impacts confined to Louisiana and eastward.

2. Only parts of South Texas getting skirted with moisture/precip (similar to Alberto) as it slides progressively into/across Mexico

#2 would be ideal to help extend the "cool down" for the region.

The Louisiana and Texas threat is dropping based on almost all global models and ensembles.  Texas isn't completely safe, the timing of the trough and the strength of Beryl affects how much it turns, but the models are encouraging.  Rain in July is always welcome, but some solutions are so far S there won't be much if any in Texas.

[Powerball]

DFW achieved an intra-hour high of 100*F today (3rd this season) *and* set another record maximum low of 83*F this morning.

[Stx_Thunder]

Not surprised at all about the hype on here/out there now with currently MH Beryl. Just because a few *outlier models show a northerly track into US coast territory..

It’s already been busier than normal since last Thursday at the stores because of upcoming ID holiday, but it’s very (irritatingly) likely going to stay like that around here through early next week with Beryl, now.

It was even crazy at the stores with just a TS Alberto tracking well south a few weeks ago, like if it was a hurricane…

- - -

Aside from already fairly well-established track consensus, Euro & GFS and ensemble consensus have been going pretty weak the past several days by the time it makes a W Gulf landfall. Even the majority of hurricane models (especially TVCN) show it only at TS strength also by then. Canadian of course, is just going overboard (as per usual with these systems).

The TC pattern into the Gulf early this season has been for more southerly tracks (just like both TS Alberto & Chris did). Seeing these things over years, TC Beryl is likely also going to do a similar track somewhere into MX.

Not only that, it’s going to be fighting an already active SAL at least somewhat, as I’m seeing more plumes moving into the Caribbean and W Gulf this weekend on NASA/GMAO dust forecast model. ‘Already been seeing the haze effects of SAL around here since the past 2 days or so now.

 - - - -

Overall, Beryl is looking to be mainly another tropical rainmaker for TX (at least the southern half).

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Not surprised at all about the hype on here/out there now with currently MH Beryl. Just because a few *outlier models show a northerly track into US territory..

It’s already been busier than normal since last Thursday at the stores because of upcoming ID holiday, but it’s very (irritatingly) likely going to stay like that around here through early next week with Beryl, now.

It was even crazy at the stores with just a TS Alberto tracking well south a few weeks ago, like if it was a hurricane…

- - -

Aside from already fairly well-established track consensus, Euro & GFS and ensemble consensus have been going pretty weak the past several days by the time it makes W Gulf landfall. Even the majority of hurricane models (especially TVCN) show it only at TS strength also by then. Canadian of course, is just going overboard (as per usual with these systems).

The TC pattern into the Gulf early this season has been for more southerly tracks (just like both TS Alberto & Chris did). Seeing these things over years, TC Beryl is likely also going to do a similar track into MX.

Not only that, it’s going to be fighting an already active SAL, as I’m seeing more plumes moving into the Caribbean and W Gulf this weekend on NASA/GMAO dust forecast model.

 - - - -

Overall, Beryl is looking to be another tropical rainmaker for TX (at least the southern half).

I count only 5 GEFS members with Texas landfall, and only 1 at hurricane strength.  A couple more 18Z Euro ensembles hit Texas with hurricanes, but it is about 6 members, ~10%.  It has time to change, but at ~6 days until a last landfall, the model spread should decrease.

[Powerball]

DFW tied yet another record maximum low of 82*F this morning.

[Powerball]

5 hours ago, Powerball said:

DFW tied yet another record maximum low of 82*F this morning.

 

Today is also the 4th 100*F high for the year.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

IAH finally had a 100*F day yesterday.  It likely happened between 4 and 5 pm local, when dewpoint had mixed all the way to 69*F, or it was hot yesterday but not horrible being outside.  Mins are 81, 80 and 79*F.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

NHC track, if stays on or comes N of track, would have weather in South Texas,  Reliable models (not the ICON) suggest NHC track is close.  NHC does note higher than usual uncertainty related to the ridge strength.  Stronger storm in deeper steering likely comes farther N.  Multiple variables still at play.

[Powerball]

DFW set yet another record maximum low this morning of 81*F (previous record was 80*F in 2022).

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

GFS and its ensemble suggest significant rain, but not flood producing, or a net positive.  GFS develops 96L, (some ensembles do, CMC doesn't but has ensemble members that do) which landfalls farther from Texas, but has a wider precipitation field that produces a large area S of TX 44 of 6 inch rains, @Stx_Thunder

[Powerball]

8 hours ago, Powerball said:

DFW set yet another record maximum low this morning of 81*F (previous record was 80*F in 2022).

And also the 5th 100*F day of the year

[Stx_Thunder]

With TC Beryl (still likely to be mainly a rain/flood maker) coming around, things are definitely looking wet pretty much all of next week around the southern half. Even around San Antonio with that northward curve up there (after landfall near Brownsville), looking more likely now.

The Atlantic/Bermuda ridge looks to setup shop around Florida & SEUS, which would definitely keep the pattern convectively active for a lot of the Eastern half of state through next week with all the trop moisture continuing to flow northwestward into W Gulf.

There also looks to be a boundary in the state next week with the associated upper-trough north/east likely to cause some UL shear & inhibit Beryl’s intensity/organization. Which could sig increase totals for a good part of the CTX/ETX region with the added surface focus, UL support, and moisture pooling south of it. Along with all the Gulf moisture inflow still continuing.

- - -

Euro showing PW as high as 3.3 in. around the center. But very likely widespread 2.4 in. + areas north of it (on GFS also). 10” + area rainfall totals definitely not out of the question. Especially because of all this tropical stuff.

Euro going 20+ in. areas near Rio Grande. GFS showing 12+ in. areas around most of STX. In any case, there’s likely to be flooding issues. Especially around Deep STX region because of TS Alberto rain dump just a few weeks ago.

 

 

[Powerball]

DFW snagged a late day intra-hour high of 100*F today (6th this season), which will seemingly be the last one for a while...

[Stx_Thunder]

Starting to see some kind of southwesterly shear impact on satellite alone to Beryl as the convective blowoff on the north side is moving more northeast now.

Both Euro & GFS ensembles have sig started to trend East on track. At this rate now, and the more southwesterly UL flow/shear just ahead of the TC’s current/predicted track could turn this thing northward, faster over W Gulf. All of STX would definitely be left mainly dry if that’s the case. ‘Can’t complain too much though since it’s a TC entity.

- LA landfall would not be out of the question now. Especially tracking more over northeast tip of Yucatán, as I’ve seen before. A more southern track through the inner part of the landmass & actually through BOC normally/historically brings a higher risk of hurricane landfall into STX.

[Stx_Thunder]

Even though the hurricane warnings weren’t necessary at all right around the coastal bend, got some of the southward moving, outer western N-S oriented convective bands from TC Beryl during the afternoon. ‘Looked a lot like a convectively active cold front moving through with a more defined southward moving outflow boundary and gusty north winds.

Seeing convection blowing up over TX Panhandle tonight from Plains troughing/front, it already looks like the TC has begun its right (north - northeastward) turn on latest satellite/radar imagery right now. So it looks like the “worse” may actually skoot around HOU area just off to the east tomorrow (after landfall). @Ed, snow and hurricane fan

- - -

It doesn’t necessarily look like things will dry out after TC Beryl moves out as next Plains front/trough looks to push into the state. It’ll likely move further south this time with deeper northerly flow assistance on outside western circulation of TC Beryl as it moves off to the northeast.

[cstrunk]

At my house, I got 1.00" of rain on Sunday, and 5.25" yesterday from Beryl. Yesterday was pretty wild with all of the tornado warnings in E TX and NW LA. Winds were a little gusty at times yesterday afternoon, but thankfully we only lost power once for about 20 seconds and that was all.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

On 7/7/2024 at 10:03 PM, Stx_Thunder said:

Even though the hurricane warnings weren’t necessary at all right around the coastal bend, got some of the southward moving, outer western N-S oriented convective bands from TC Beryl during the afternoon. ‘Looked a lot like a convectively active cold front moving through with a more defined southward moving outflow boundary and gusty north winds.

Seeing convection blowing up over TX Panhandle tonight from Plains troughing/front, it already looks like the TC has begun its right (north - northeastward) turn on latest satellite/radar imagery right now. So it looks like the “worse” may actually skoot around HOU area just off to the east tomorrow (after landfall). @Ed, snow and hurricane fan

- - -

It doesn’t necessarily look like things will dry out after TC Beryl moves out as next Plains front/trough looks to push into the state. It’ll likely move further south this time with deeper northerly flow assistance on outside western circulation of TC Beryl as it moves off to the northeast.

In Bedford, in the DFW Metroplex.  I've become habituated to air conditioning.  Some neighborhood roofs lost shingles, fences blown down, but not as bad damage wise as Ike.  Ike was mid-September and it wasn't hot, however.

[Stx_Thunder]

Been getting some decent convection (somewhat organized) going on for the past 2 days now with that troughing/boundary around STX. Good thunder Thursday morning for 2 hours but little/no rain where I was until this morning. The UL troughing is clearly more evident today with activity moving more northeastward. All the convective debris in the afternoons has been keeping temps down a good amount. Which is another great + this time of year and for the A/C.

Even if it substantially dries out this weekend or early next week, it doesn’t look like it’s going to last long as there looks to be another UL trough digging pretty far south toward the state again later next week. Euro & GFS also showing some MCS scenarios into NTX/ETX later next week as well with more southward progression with each new run. More of a very late spring/early fall type pattern rather than summer or tropical one.

Even more, H5 heights still don’t look to go up much over the state through next week with more attempted ridging that it would really be able crank up the heat on the drier days.