Conway7305 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 4 minutes ago, migratingwx said: Lots more hits this run. Will take p3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 44 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: It’s going to be really cold so ratios will be high not only that, ULL driven snow can have high ratios. you can have mid ratios with very cold temperatures. (our ratios with the front end of this last storm were pretty bad) BUT if you get snow from the ULL pass or the back end of a coastal it can promote high ratio snow I verified 17:1 ratios with the ULL from the Feb 19-20 storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago still a lot of uncertainty with respect to the placement of the low will need to see how this plays out, but I genuinely think there's an outside chance those numbers we are currently seeing over NC end up over Richmond (of course there is also a higher than usual chance of a total fail) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago This reminds me alot of the 1980 March blizzard. The same timing. I remember back then they were expecting 1-3 inches of snow Sat with an upper lvel disturbance, and that was it. My younger brother asked me if it would be ok to go to VA Tech to see his girlfriend. He was going to head home Sat night. I said sure and he ended up stuck on the road, lol. We got some really big fat flakes and about 2 inches Sat morning and it stopped. Late that afternoon it started back up as the coastal deepened far more than expected. It was fun watching all the networks playing catch-up the rest of the storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago NAM isn't going to get it done. Not closing off and turning negative in time. It's a bit of a step back from 18z. I'd trust the Euro over the NAM at this range any time though, especially at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Yeah NAM not going to get it done but it is the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 20 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: NAM isn't going to get it done. Not closing off and turning negative in time. It's a bit of a step back from 18z. I'd trust the Euro over the NAM at this range any time though, especially at 500mb. I trust you to make up a scenario before I trust NAM outside of 36 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Nam 0z is a shut out for the southside! 18z GFS was showing a sharp cut off. We need it to roll up the coast to get that throw back action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I trust chatgpt more than NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago As an outsiders perspective this looks like it's going to be a swing and a miss for Metro Richmond. Virginia Beach may cash in slightly but we'll know more tomorrow. I'd say at best Richmond is looking at 2". At worst, maybe some snow showers and some bitter cold / wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago On the other hand, the ICON might be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, TampaMan said: As an outsiders perspective this looks like it's going to be a swing and a miss for Metro Richmond. Virginia Beach may cash in slightly but we'll know more tomorrow. I'd say at best Richmond is looking at 2". At worst, maybe some snow showers and some bitter cold / wind. Yeah, that's been my expectation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said: Yeah, that's been my expectation I lived in Richmond for 30 years.. soon as I left y'all are getting look after look after look. This one just doesn't seem to have the juice you would want at the moment for it to be anything better than MAYBE a 5-6 incher (and that aspect is not even looking good at this point). Could be wrong, hope I am! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, D-Money said: Icon Worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, D-Money said: Icon Yeah, big OOF. If any of y'all can, go ahead and drive down to KDH this weekend for fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago At 66h RGEM might be a hair better looking at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, TampaMan said: I lived in Richmond for 30 years.. soon as I left y'all are getting look after look after look. This one just doesn't seem to have the juice you would want at the moment for it to be anything better than MAYBE a 5-6 incher (and that aspect is not even looking good at this point). Could be wrong, hope I am! Oh, I agree. Been here my whole 33 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, D-Money said: Icon ICON wasn't showing a storm at all until 2 runs ago. Toss. I trust the Euro suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: At 66h RGEM might be a hair better looking at 500mb Ok later on we get some minor negative changes that offset it. Looks like it'll be pretty similar to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said: Ok later on we get some minor negative changes that offset it. Looks like it'll be pretty similar to 18z All we need is that 500mb low to be 100 miles north. I genuinely think we can get that trend. One thing that did trend in the wrong direction was that stupid shortwave in the Plains. If we can get that out of the way it would be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Wow, am I the senior statesman? 55 years in RVA, specifically, the Tuckahoe area, with a break in the Fan and sometime in Glen Allen and Goochland for two years. I still think this has some legs, but I am a glutton for punishment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago RDPS still more to come. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GFS looks better so far. See how it plays out 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: GFS looks better so far. See how it plays out it's going to be a bump about 50 miles north with the precip shield... gets warning level snow back into the RIC area... really quite similar to the 18z euro, maybe a bit less snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Ephesians2 said: it's going to be a bump about 50 miles north with the precip shield... gets warning level snow back into the RIC area... really quite similar to the 18z euro, maybe a bit less snow Yeah was going to say it definitely looks a little more north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GFS great run 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, D-Money said: GFS great run Much better than 18Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Quite a rollercoaster ride today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago This setup is sooo close to a big hit. If the Low shifted just 30-50 miles W, we would be talking big snow totals. Still a few days to go so we have that on our side. Minor changes can either be huge or bust for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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