Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[Conway7305]

4 minutes ago, migratingwx said:

Lots more hits this run.  Will take p3

[Ephesians2]

44 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

It’s going to be really cold so ratios will be high 

not only that, ULL driven snow can have high ratios. you can have mid ratios with very cold temperatures. (our ratios with the front end of this last storm were pretty bad) BUT if you get snow from the ULL pass or the back end of a coastal it can promote high ratio snow

I verified 17:1 ratios with the ULL from the Feb 19-20 storm 

[Ephesians2]

still a lot of uncertainty with respect to the placement of the low

will need to see how this plays out, but I genuinely think there's an outside chance those numbers we are currently seeing over NC end up over Richmond 

(of course there is also a higher than usual chance of a total fail)

[ldub23]

This reminds  me  alot  of the 1980 March blizzard. The same timing. I remember  back then they were expecting  1-3 inches  of snow Sat with an upper  lvel disturbance, and that was  it. My younger  brother  asked  me  if  it would  be  ok to go to VA Tech to see his  girlfriend.  He was  going to head  home Sat  night. I said sure and  he ended  up stuck on the road, lol. We got  some really  big  fat  flakes and  about  2 inches Sat  morning and  it stopped. Late that afternoon it started  back up as the  coastal deepened  far  more than expected. It was fun watching all the  networks playing  catch-up the rest  of the storm.

[Ephesians2]

NAM isn't going to get it done. Not closing off and turning negative in time. It's a bit of a step back from 18z. I'd trust the Euro over the NAM at this range any time though, especially at 500mb. 

[RVASnowLover]

Yeah NAM not going to get it done but it is the NAM 

[wasnow215]

20 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

NAM isn't going to get it done. Not closing off and turning negative in time. It's a bit of a step back from 18z. I'd trust the Euro over the NAM at this range any time though, especially at 500mb. 

I trust you to make up a scenario before I trust NAM outside of 36 hours 

[D-Money]

Nam 0z is a shut out for the southside!

18z GFS was showing a sharp cut off. We need it to roll up the coast to get that throw back action. 

[overcautionisbad]

I trust chatgpt more than NAM

[TampaMan]

As an outsiders perspective this looks like it's going to be a swing and a miss for Metro Richmond. Virginia Beach may cash in slightly but we'll know more tomorrow. I'd say at best Richmond is looking at 2". At worst, maybe some snow showers and some bitter cold / wind. 

[ldub23]

On the  other  hand, the ICON  might  be  better.

[overcautionisbad]

2 minutes ago, TampaMan said:

As an outsiders perspective this looks like it's going to be a swing and a miss for Metro Richmond. Virginia Beach may cash in slightly but we'll know more tomorrow. I'd say at best Richmond is looking at 2". At worst, maybe some snow showers and some bitter cold / wind. 

Yeah, that's been my expectation

[D-Money]

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[TampaMan]

1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said:

Yeah, that's been my expectation

I lived in Richmond for 30 years.. soon as I left y'all are getting look after look after look. This one just doesn't seem to have the juice you would want at the moment for it to be anything better than MAYBE a 5-6 incher (and that aspect is not even looking good at this point). Could be wrong, hope I am! 

[ldub23]

1 minute ago, D-Money said:

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Worse

[TampaMan]

1 minute ago, D-Money said:

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Yeah, big OOF. If any of y'all can, go ahead and drive down to KDH this weekend for fun! 

[Ephesians2]

At 66h RGEM might be a hair better looking at 500mb

[overcautionisbad]

Just now, TampaMan said:

I lived in Richmond for 30 years.. soon as I left y'all are getting look after look after look. This one just doesn't seem to have the juice you would want at the moment for it to be anything better than MAYBE a 5-6 incher (and that aspect is not even looking good at this point). Could be wrong, hope I am! 

Oh, I agree. Been here my whole 33 years

[Ephesians2]

2 minutes ago, D-Money said:

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ICON wasn't showing a storm at all until 2 runs ago. Toss. I trust the Euro suite. 

[Ephesians2]

2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

At 66h RGEM might be a hair better looking at 500mb

Ok later on we get some minor negative changes that offset it. Looks like it'll be pretty similar to 18z

[Ephesians2]

1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

Ok later on we get some minor negative changes that offset it. Looks like it'll be pretty similar to 18z

All we need is that 500mb low to be 100 miles north. I genuinely think we can get that trend. One thing that did trend in the wrong direction was that stupid shortwave in the Plains. If we can get that out of the way it would be great 

[JB Fins]

Wow, am I the senior statesman?  55 years in RVA, specifically, the Tuckahoe area, with a break in the Fan and sometime in Glen Allen and Goochland for two years.

I still think this has some legs, but I am a glutton for punishment.

[D-Money]

RDPS still more to come. 

[RVASnowLover]

GFS looks better so far. See how it plays out 

[Ephesians2]

2 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

GFS looks better so far. See how it plays out 

it's going to be a bump about 50 miles north with the precip shield... gets warning level snow back into the RIC area... really quite similar to the 18z euro, maybe a bit less snow

[RVASnowLover]

Just now, Ephesians2 said:

it's going to be a bump about 50 miles north with the precip shield... gets warning level snow back into the RIC area... really quite similar to the 18z euro, maybe a bit less snow

Yeah was going to say it definitely looks a little more north 

[D-Money]

GFS great run 

[ldub23]

2 minutes ago, D-Money said:

GFS great run 

Much better than 18Z

[ldub23]

Quite a rollercoaster ride today

[Conway7305]

This setup is sooo close to a big hit.  If the Low shifted just  30-50 miles W, we would be talking big snow totals.  Still a few days to go so we have that on our side. Minor changes can either be huge or bust for us.