ldub23 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 5 hours ago, Rhino16 said: Fall never really gives us anything to hint at a snowy winter here, models look much better than last winter already, so I’m hopeful for something better than last winter. edit: and from what i’ve heard, late starts aren’t uncommon with niños, however, I haven’t looked at the stats for that. I hope you are right. Nva might get some snow in 11 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted November 26, 2023 Author Share Posted November 26, 2023 Nothing groundbreaking on the models today. The overall picture still looks favorable if you do not want prolonged widespread warmth. And there have been snowstorm signals on the models from time to time and that continues to be the case, but nothing is getting within 7-10 days. It's not even December yet so I am not getting alarmed just yet. Meantime, the Euro was a hair colder for mid-week with highs mostly in the low 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, by next Saturday, highs could be back in the low-mid 60s and then we warm up, possibly close to 70°F for far SE VA, ahead of the next cold front. That said, there was still some variability on the models for exactly how warm we get ahead of that next system. Below are the recent Euro 2m temperatures Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Enjoy some decent November cold and what looks to be the first hard freeze for many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted November 26, 2023 Author Share Posted November 26, 2023 On 11/25/2023 at 10:02 PM, RIC Airport said: Nothing groundbreaking on the models today. The overall picture still looks favorable if you do not want prolonged widespread warmth. And there have been snowstorm signals on the models from time to time and that continues to be the case, but nothing is getting within 7-10 days. It's not even December yet so I am not getting alarmed just yet. Meantime, the Euro was a hair colder for mid-week with highs mostly in the low 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, by next Saturday, highs could be back in the low-mid 60s and then we warm up, possibly close to 70°F for far SE VA, ahead of the next cold front. That said, there was still some variability on the models for exactly how warm we get ahead of that next system. Below are the recent Euro 2m temperatures Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Enjoy some decent November cold and what looks to be the first hard freeze for many. The latest 12z GFS operational run highlights this as well. Not as cold as the Euro for lows, but no prolonged warmth. However, temps in Hampton Roads could exceed 70 in spots on Monday 12/4. The colder days, while certainly below normal, won't be that impressive from a historical sense. It also looks like we are mostly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted November 27, 2023 Author Share Posted November 27, 2023 NWS Wakefield is going with a low of 22°F for Richmond and 26°F for Norfolk Wednesday morning. If realized, it would be one of the colder November temperatures of the previous 20 years at both stations. These are the lowest November temperatures going back to 2003 at both Richmond and Norfolk sorted lowest to highest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted November 28, 2023 Author Share Posted November 28, 2023 Norfolk finally reached freezing for the first time this morning, a day earlier than any model had. Richmond dropped to 27°F, its lowest temperature since March 21st. Wakefield is now going with 20°F at RIC tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, overnight Euro and morning GFS backed off on upcoming rain amounts. There are two rounds of rain Friday afternoon into Friday night, then Sunday into early Monday. Below are the projected totals from Euro (top) and GFS (bottom) thru 7am Tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted November 29, 2023 Author Share Posted November 29, 2023 The low temperature in Richmond this morning was 19°F. This is the first time since 2014 that it reached the teens in the month of November. This does not happen very often in November. Going back to 1950, there have only been 19 occurrences of teens in November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted November 30, 2023 Author Share Posted November 30, 2023 Richmond's high was 44°F. The daily average was 32°F, which means today was the 2nd coldest day of 2023. The coldest was back on February 4th when RIC recorded a low of 16°F and a high of 36°F for a daily average of 26°F. Before that, you must return to Christmas weekend for anything colder. This weekend will feature above-normal temperatures, and the dryer trend continued today on the models. Although there are chances of rain at different times between now and Monday or Tuesday, if anyone hoped for another 1-3" of rain like the pre-Thanksgiving event, that no longer looks likely. Below are today's 18Z GFS projected temperatures for 2 pm Sunday, which appears to be the warmest day between now and Tuesday. Notice the projected precip totals through Tuesday are much lower than past runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted November 30, 2023 Author Share Posted November 30, 2023 After any showers, we get between now and Sunday, there has been a signal on and off regarding a clipper-like system in the middle of next week that strengthens as it approaches our region and exits off the coast. The exact track, location and timing of the strengthening has changed from run to run. Today's 12z operational GFS strengthens it in a more favorable spot and drops snow, possibly accumulating in spots. The time of this was Wednesday afternoon and evening. It's early, and this could change for the better or worse as we get closer. But it's something to watch in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Hopefully it gets better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted November 30, 2023 Author Share Posted November 30, 2023 43 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Hopefully it gets better Euro was a close call, but didnt quite get get there. Plenty of time for improvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 The problem is the cold is always a glancing blow. It needs to dive into the center of the country and spread east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted November 30, 2023 Author Share Posted November 30, 2023 Here's a closer look at e06, the snowiest Euro ensemble member (out of 50) for most of our area. Dropping pretty good snows over central and eastern VA at hour 168 and up until about hour 180 as it exits off the coast. Obviously this will change, but showing it because it's the main the reason why we have an ensemble mean of 0.1 to 0.3" across the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted November 30, 2023 Author Share Posted November 30, 2023 18Z GFS was a step back and similar to the 12z Euro solution. We knew this set up was (is) a long shot and isn't ideal for anything meaningful, but we are aiming to get our first flakes of the season to break the seal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 2, 2023 Author Share Posted December 2, 2023 FWIW, today's 18z GFS snowstorm map was only good for northern and western areas. Also, it's at the end of the run, but something interesting to look at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 Any December snow, shoot, any snow and the even the possibility are welcome. While I hate being above average in early December, it gives me hope as it seems to be following the playbook that most seasoned mets have pointed to when forecasting this winter season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 2, 2023 Author Share Posted December 2, 2023 Today's 12z GFS had the perfect track, but unfortunately it doesn't line up with the cold. At least we are still seeing these "signals", eventually as we get deeper into winter, something will pan out, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 2, 2023 Author Share Posted December 2, 2023 35 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Today's 12z GFS had the perfect track, but unfortunately it doesn't line up with the cold. At least we are still seeing these "signals", eventually as we get deeper into winter, something will pan out, right? That IS our snowstorm track, though. It really doesn't get much better than that. We have also had storms form off the GA/SC coast and move north like 1/25/2000 and 2/16/1996 (see map below). 1/3/2018 and 12/26/2010 were some bit hits for SE areas. We also do well with a southern track coming from the west similar to 12/9/2018, 1/30/2010, 1/7/1988 and 2/16-17/2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 2, 2023 Author Share Posted December 2, 2023 This weekend marks the anniversary of the 12/3-4/2000 storm, which was a major disappointment for most of our area. I guess unless you live in Franklin, Ahoskie, Currituck areas. Many areas in NE NC received 10-15" of snow. But, the storm was supposed to affect most of east central and SE VA. In fact, NWS Wakefield (as you can see below) even issued a winter storm watch as far N and W as the Richmond metro area. Unfortunately, in the final 24hours the models shifted the storm farther south. It could've been better region-wide, one of my worst memories being in Richmond at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 6, 2023 Author Share Posted December 6, 2023 The 00z GFS decided to throw our area a bone. It's fun to look at, although I'm sure it'll change come 6z. But there have been signals of a storm for a couple of days around this time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Richmonders forget how to drive in between just annual snows, it has been so long that I can't fathom the level of ineptitude 5-7" after a snowless year last year would introduce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 6, 2023 Author Share Posted December 6, 2023 Yeah, I think most of the east coast is dealing with that, especially after last year as virtually everyone outside the lake effect snow regions got shut out. Its been particularly bad for us since the 2018-19 winter, hardly anything meaningful since. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 8, 2023 Author Share Posted December 8, 2023 Sunday's front is looking similar to the one just before Thanksgiving with widespread 1-3" of rain across the region. The window for rain looks to start around 10am in the Richmond metro area and 3-4pm in Hampton Roads. The heaviest rain will arrive later in the evening after sunset, as indicated by today's 18Z GFS below. It's good to see we are finally getting Nino-induced moisture. We must get colder in our region and line it up with moisture. It's only December, and hopefully, we see signs of opportunity soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Sunday's front is looking similar to the one just before Thanksgiving with widespread 1-3" of rain across the region. The window for rain looks to start around 10am in the Richmond metro area and 3-4pm in Hampton Roads. The heaviest rain will arrive later in the evening after sunset, as indicated by today's 18Z GFS below. It's good to see we are finally getting Nino-induced moisture. We must get colder in our region and line it up with moisture. It's only December, and hopefully, we see signs of opportunity soon. Hope to see flakes on the end of that here in blacksburg, will attempt another forecast for RIC on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 8, 2023 Author Share Posted December 8, 2023 Too bad it's way out there, but would be a Christmas miracle this 06z GFS solution panned out. There have been off and on signals for a pre-Christmas storm somewhere on the east coast for almost a week now. Actually, there are numerous impulses in the flow so which one, if any, will be timed and placed properly to deliver snow for central and SE VA? There are still opportunities. Fun to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 That storm really would be a miracle. Looks like we have some Monday morning snow showers to track maybe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 On 12/2/2023 at 1:23 PM, RIC Airport said: This weekend marks the anniversary of the 12/3-4/2000 storm, which was a major disappointment for most of our area. I guess unless you live in Franklin, Ahoskie, Currituck areas. Many areas in NE NC received 10-15" of snow. But, the storm was supposed to affect most of east central and SE VA. In fact, NWS Wakefield (as you can see below) even issued a winter storm watch as far N and W as the Richmond metro area. Unfortunately, in the final 24hours the models shifted the storm farther south. It could've been better region-wide, one of my worst memories being in Richmond at the time. I remember that well with my snow flurries while 25 miles SW It was 10-12 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 8, 2023 Author Share Posted December 8, 2023 1 hour ago, mikeeng92 said: That storm really would be a miracle. Looks like we have some Monday morning snow showers to track maybe? Definitely something to watch. Euro was aggressive with back end snow a couple days ago, then NAM got within range and was the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 8, 2023 Author Share Posted December 8, 2023 Also, today's 12Z GFS, however, paints a more believable solution, in my opinion. While there will be a sharp drop in temperatures immediately behind the front, I am unsure whether surface temperatures east of the mountains will get cold enough and fast enough for the accumulations the way the NAM depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 8, 2023 Author Share Posted December 8, 2023 We will have the next frame tonight at 00z, but interesting that even the 3K NAM had snow this far east. I remain skeptical of the NAM, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 8, 2023 Author Share Posted December 8, 2023 Impressive rainfall totals exceeding 3" in some spots through 7am Monday morning, according to the 18Z GFS. The daily rainfall record for Sunday at Richmond is 1.53" set in 1969 and 1.75" at Norfolk set in 1882. The 18Z GFS has 1.56" and 1.63" respectively, falling through 05z (midnight), so both station daily rainfall records are in jeopardy if the GFS is correct. Below are the 18z GFS totals thru 7am Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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