raindancewx Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 I agree that January will be warm. But I think it's best to focus on the years in your list that had a huge disparity in Dec temps for Russia v. Canada as the roll forward criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 Natural Gas rose... now it's fallen back to 2.38. I've found under 2.5 correlates with basically negative 500mb anomaly 60N-90N.. +NAO/+AO/+EPO.. but it's only a -40-50dm signal (+1-2 months from happening) https://ibb.co/JpSn9Mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 March Natural Gas = cheap. https://ibb.co/3Wg2GwQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: March Natural Gas = cheap. https://ibb.co/3Wg2GwQ Yep, just got a hot tip from my broker, Bastardi says BUY BUY BUY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 2 takes. Natural Gas record low: https://ibb.co/2vrfcHK ENSO subsurface changes: https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY ON NATURAL GAS: Since 1998, top 7 +Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 8.3, bottom 4 Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 2.2. We are at 1.97, the 3rd lowest on record in that time, fitting the extreme situation guideline. Here are the top 11 +analogs for March.. based on Feb's NG price: https://ibb.co/6wKqgDf https://ibb.co/Hp0zZqW ^that's Feb high/low NG price rolled forward into March (so a +1 month lead time). I don't know that March's warmth will be that extreme, because a lot of LR models (GEFS, EPS, Euro) are showing below average temps through the 21st, but we probably will finish the month above normal in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 100dm is an amazing signal for something not even really related! Furthermore, my analog set is 1998-2023. I have 11 analogs out of the dataset.. so 11/25 years.. 41% of the total. To have a +7F average anomaly (+ and - .. more - years, for the global warming skew.. 7/11 are cold analogs) for 40% of a dataset in 25 years is amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 23 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 2 takes. Natural Gas record low: https://ibb.co/2vrfcHK ENSO subsurface changes: https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY ON NATURAL GAS: Since 1998, top 7 +Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 8.3, bottom 4 Natural Gas analogs for February averaged 2.2. We are at 1.97, the 3rd lowest on record in that time, fitting the extreme situation guideline. Here are the top 11 +analogs for March.. based on Feb's NG price: https://ibb.co/6wKqgDf https://ibb.co/Hp0zZqW ^that's Feb high/low NG price rolled forward into March (so a +1 month lead time). I don't know that March's warmth will be that extreme, because a lot of LR models (GEFS, EPS, Euro) are showing below average temps through the 21st, but we probably will finish the month above normal in the NE. This is what I have for March: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 Looks good.. the Euro weeklies have had a very favorable high latitude pattern for US cold for several runs/a long time now.. Interesting to see things so far apart for March. Late February Stratosphere warming favors some -NAO conditions in March, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 Since it's slow, I'll say again that NG is 1.86, the over/under on March temps in the NE/GL's with this is +5-7F. My guess is because models want to develop a -NAO/AO from the February Stratosphere warming, there may be -PNA/+EPO in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Natural Gas is still just absolutely tanking.. got as low as 1.59 today. Believe it or not, going 1 year ahead (for Winter 2024-25) doesn't have a very high correlation: Long term graph since 1995, https://ibb.co/4td0sCG Lowest years the Winter before (2012, 2016, 2020) for the following winter: https://ibb.co/Kzxhtc8 Minus the highest years (-2008, -2022): https://ibb.co/kGxqBD3 There is even a -AO tendency with 3 cold waves around it, in these 5 analogs, and +pna signal, and that's colder, so not a real strong indicator going 1 year out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 3 Author Share Posted March 3 Here's your -AO look: I thought a Strong El Nino/Strong -QBO combo would do that.. we had a few Stratosphere warmings. The Pacific Ocean pattern kept North America warmer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Here's your -AO look: I thought a Strong El Nino/Strong -QBO combo would do that.. we had a few Stratosphere warmings. The Pacific Ocean pattern kept North America warmer.. near total lack of cold air except siberia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Wednesday at 01:19 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 01:19 AM @40/70 Benchmark The CPC came with +0.75 NAO for DJFM March, which was outside of my +0.54 SD range for NAO forecast, based on May-September N. Atlantic SSTs. But if you look at the actual maps, the SLP between Iceland and Azores (where the NAO is calculated) is a slightly negative or neutral NAO index reading for the Winter, which fits my forecast, which was near 0.0 in prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Wednesday at 12:29 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:29 PM Every month next winter is likelier than not to be above normal across mid latitude N/A - it's a matter of how much or little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Wednesday at 09:21 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 09:21 PM Yeah, Natural Gas is really low right now, which means that the average NG trader is going for a warmer Winter at this point for the Great Lakes, NE-US, Europe, and Russia. (Down 10% today!) Especially compared to Oil and Gasoline.. I did find that the correlation isn't very big until you pass the Summer-hot season. Maybe they think it will be a cooler Summer? I doubt it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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