chubbs Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 18 hours ago, bdgwx said: And as of this morning it is official. Hansen et al. 2023 was formally accepted for publication. Why is this a big deal? 1) It is a sobering prediction of what may happen. 2) The authors (and there are big names in this list) take an adversarial tone toward the IPCC by indicting them of reticence and gradualism. Official: https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889?login=false News: https://www.eenews.net/articles/james-hansen-is-back-with-another-dire-climate-warning/ Will take a while to sort out the ramifications of this years temperature spike. A spike is unsettling when there is uncertainty about climate sensitivity. We are running a big science experiment. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 Hansen not the only one sniffing out higher ECS. @bluewave @chubbs @bdgwx Timestamped for the appropriate part of the talk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 https://staff.cgd.ucar.edu/cdeser/docs/hwang.anthro_aerosols_persistent_lanina.oct23.pdf Paper link. Would go quite a long ways in explaining why La Nina and trade wind strength has been persistent. Seems to suggest that this is a fast (transient) response and that the slow response is in the opposite direction. Interestingly the model experiment in the paper seems to suggest the fast response in the real world peaks this decade and then the slow response kicks in, reversing the trend. Overall, not great news as this slants the table more towards higher sensitivities with the current trend only being a transient braking mechanism on warming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 10 hours ago, csnavywx said: Hansen not the only one sniffing out higher ECS. @bluewave @chubbs @bdgwx Timestamped for the appropriate part of the talk. Interesting, shows we need to consider aerosols as well as CO2 in understanding man-made climate change, particularly short-term trends which may not have much staying power, if aerosol driven. One quick thought: aerosols apparently contributed to WPac warming and increased frequency of Modoki ninos and perhaps helped our winter snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 September update continues this years ocean heat content (OHC) spike which started in May. Broadly consistent with Ceres net radiation data which shows an increasing earth energy imbalance, but doesn't match in detail since the Ceres imbalance has been increasing since 2015. Not clear why OHC would spike in a nino, when stored ocean heat is being released to atmosphere and space, but measurement uncertainty probably plays a role. Another one of this years warm-side surprises. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 One of Mann's criticism against the accelerated warming hypothesis is that OHC dataset are not yet confirming the high EEI. I don't know...that looks like a pretty big jump in OHC. And like @chubbs said it is coming at a time when we are expecting a drop due to El Nino. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 It's kind of interesting... the critics of CC have been, thus far been, unilaterally wrong. the consensus, warning of CC ( ... not even qualifying it, just warning ) have if anything been objectively proven insufficient in timing, and/or magnitude - not only wrt those predictions, but observations of impact over the broad environmental global scale. Yet, the former group ... keeps attempting with what really comes off at this point to be stressing even AI to generate argument nuggets. Here's the thing, they don't appear to qualitatively be aware that those 'plausibility' discussion points are getting weaker and weaker - they keep using them regardless - sometimes with the same fervency. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 [Miniere et al. 2023] - Robust acceleration of Earth system heating observed over past six decades 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 13 hours ago, bdgwx said: [Miniere et al. 2023] - Robust acceleration of Earth system heating observed over past six decades Unfortunately study doesn't cover last couple of years, when Ceres energy balance estimates have continued to spike higher. There is brief discussion in the paper comparing Ceres to the ocean heat data. Ceres is running higher than OHC at the end of the study period, (ending in 2020). There are large error bars though and the difference is not statistically significant. They mention that the ocean heat data only covers 60S to 60N and 0-2000m and could be missing some heat content increase. Bottom-line confirming the recent Ceres spike with ocean heat content data is still an open question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Ocean heat data is out for 2023. Overall the data is similar to recent years. The oceans continue to warm at a steady clip. Found this twitter exchange interesting. There is considerable uncertainty in short-term trends making it hard to determine how much acceleration is occurring. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Here is a another twitter thread with more information and graphs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 https://phys.org/news/2024-01-global-ocean-temperatures.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 Another paper summarizing 2023 ocean warming with a comparison to other methods of estimating global heat imbalance. Ocean warming is accelerating. Reasonably good agreement among the methods considering the measurement uncertainty. Global heating rates are running above the worst case scenario (bottom graph). Why? - aerosols are coming down faster than projected due to air pollution control. This warming boost will last another decade or two unless CO2 emissions start to fall as well. https://www.mercator-ocean.eu/en/news/new-paper-co-authored-by-moi-oceanographers-reports-record-breaking-ocean-heat-content-levels-in-2023/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 This is an interesting article over at Phys.org, https://phys.org/news/2024-04-atmospheric-teleconnections-sustain-blobs-northeast.html This is statement is concerning, "...The fundamental problem is that warmer waters hold less carbon dioxide and offer fewer nutrients for the plants and animals that exist there..." On the other hand, science has shown that the oceans in general "absorb 25 percent of carbon dioxide emissions and captures 90 percent of the excess heat generated by these emissions" - https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/ocean. ( I've read this in countless other direct sources of peer reviewed/publications) If (then) warmer oceans hold less carbon dioxide, and we are seeing the oceans warming at a non-linear increase ( the future will test whether that is temporary...), that should infer a -d(absorption) capacity. See ? this is how 'run-away' green-house warming begins. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago On 7/21/2023 at 1:47 PM, GaWx said: To show how unprecedented in the records is the heat this month at Marathon in the FL Keys (records back to 1950), the largest # of days with highs of 96+ for the entire YEAR before 2023 was 11 in 1987, followed by 9 in 2019 and 8 in 2022. There have been 15 straight days counting today with highs of 96+ and 16 total days this month! That's truly amazing for a location surrounded by ocean. Prior to this month, the warmest month on record was 88.0 set in June of 2019. July of 2023 is at 90.0 MTD! Should that hold up, a two degree margin over the prior record for a station surrounded by water would be quite notable. Assuming there haven't been any recent changes in or location of the sensors at Marathon Airport, July of 2023 there will be considered astounding. I'm not aware of any. The 90.0 MTD air temp there is very believable when considering SSTs in and near the Keys averaging in the low 90s MTD. If they were, say, instead in the upper 80s, I might have questioned the Marathon sensors as the average air temp is often 1-2 F cooler than the average nearby SST. Besides the background support from AGW, what else is causing this extreme marine heatwave? Any ideas? What is causing SST averages in the area to be stuck in the lower 90s for the entire month? Some of the very shallow waters such as at Johnson Key buoy to the north in FL Bay even had 5+ days of upper 90s SST highs last week! (That location has water that is only ~5 feet deep though. So, it routinely has daily ranges of 8+ degrees. So, even when it had SST highs of 97+, it had SST lows of upper 80s/near 90 and daily averages near 93.) Is the Tonga volcano that put a lot of water vapor in the air an additional factor there and worldwide? I expect to be closely following the water temps in the Keys as we head toward summer. Last summer had a prolonged coral bleaching event as a result of continuous significantly warmer than normal water. A big contributor to this marine heatwave was a drier than normal pattern, which when combined with GW lead to unbelievable ocean heat. One thing I learned was that whereas the Key West buoy is in deep enough water to count as comparable to other locations around the world for its water temps, there are some buoys in FL Bay such as Manatee Bay and Johnson Key (see quoted post) with too shallow water along with a dark sea floor to count that way. Several of these buoys had a good number of days with high water temps in the upper 90s to low 100s but with wide diurnal ranges due to the shallowness resulting in lows in the 80s to low 90s. These upper 90 to low 100 water highs were taken out of context (due to not noting the shallowness/wide diurnal ranges) by many media using them for sensationalism to get attention/clicks (see earlier ITT). That results in AGW skeptics using that as ammunition to refute the credibility of any articles related to AGW, sort of a red herring fallacy. Even Dr. Masters noted this. At the same time the deeper KW buoy typically had only a few degree range on most days. The KW buoy was setting its own records on many days with daily water temp means in the low 90s. That was detrimental to the coral. I’ll be especially following the KW buoy water temps. It is currently in the 83-84 range, similar to 5/10/23. Last year, KW waters had significant warming 5/17-24. Once it reached 30C (86F) on 5/18/23, it appears there wasn’t even one hourly reading that went back below that til 8/30/23!! The highest hourly was an amazing and likely all-time record high of 34.0C (93.2F)(on 8/10/23)! This continuous hot water is what hurt the coral. 2023 Key West water temps found here: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/view_text_file.php?filename=kywf1h2023.txt.gz&dir=data/historical/stdmet/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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