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May 3-5 Severe

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NAM Plateau area of TN. Well my current thinking is we are going to have a very strong line of storms that may produce a few tornadoes. These won’t be super cellular in nature in my opinion so that is good news as it should limit tornado potential overall. So I think the SPC is on point with 5% tornado potential. Just my two cènts. 

E44DAC47-DEB0-40D1-8CB8-1267E7FF2F51.jpeg

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Another beautiful spring overnight in Dixie Alley! Figured it would run into stable air in Alabama. I'm impressed it got that far north and east to Tupelo.

In April instability return often under-performs. In May it can over-perform. I'm not impressed with the low level jet today or Tuesday; however, it's May.

Finally we need a Twitter poll. Cullman, AL. Yazoo, MS. Moore, OK. All three could be an answer too.

 

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Another beautiful spring overnight in Dixie Alley! Figured it would run into stable air in Alabama. I'm impressed it got that far north and east to Tupelo.
In April instability return often under-performs. In May it can over-perform. I'm not impressed with the low level jet today or Tuesday; however, it's May.
Finally we need a Twitter poll. Cullman, AL. Yazoo, MS. Moore, OK. All three could be an answer too.
 

Over the last 10 to 15 years I’ll go with Cullman.


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If we can get some clearing tomorrow after the morning MCS it might get interesting, even in ETn.


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31 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

If we can get some clearing tomorrow after the morning MCS it might get interesting, even in ETn.


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I agree totally. I think a lot of what happens tomorrow will be predicated on how much clearing we really do get.The models have been trending downward in my opinion… I can’t say I’m overly impressed honestly. Now that being said if the MCS clears really quickly then totally disregard my previous statement.

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I agree totally. I think a lot of what happens tomorrow will be predicated on how much clearing we really do get.The models have been trending downward in my opinion… I can’t say I’m overly impressed honestly. Now that being said if the MCS clears really quickly then totally disregard my previous statement.

MCS could lay down some boundaries in our area since it’s tracking north of us.


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New NAM for tomorrow near Plateau AREA OF TN... 18Z HRRR shows the same

789DCFAD-98ED-41FC-BB70-3C2F5154B891.jpeg

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Took this pic earlier from Knoxville looking north. Probably just a scud or maybe a weak down burst.


239705b9f1ebc192dbe972863f51617e.jpg


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Looks to be a messy storm mode based on the hodograph for tomorrow. 

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