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WinterWxLuvr

November Medium/Long Range Discussion

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4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I don't guys none of this looks legit to me. 

Modeled simulations of the atmosphere aren't totally real? :(

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I need my snow fix. Let's go with 6" to 10" cold powder that starts just before sunrise Christmas and ends right at sun down with a nice sunset.

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54 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I need my snow fix. Let's go with 6" to 10" cold powder that starts just before sunrise Christmas and ends right at sun down with a nice sunset.

I'll take this :sled:

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Just now, CAPE said:

That wobbling loop de loop closed low with 2 different phases on the GFS is different.

Surely we can expect an operational run of the model to get that right 2 weeks out too.

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Just now, nj2va said:

Surely we can expect an operational run of the model to get that right 2 weeks out too.

It's super impressive to look at h5 but for all its gyrations, it really never does much at the surface lol.

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Surely we can expect an operational run of the model to get that right 2 weeks out too.

Good point. I’m not sure how the op GFS or any model does with closed lows.  Both the GFS and Euro had a closed low for the longest time for T-day in many locations in the east...until it didn’t just about 4 days ago.  At least we are tracking something. 

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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's super impressive to look at h5 but for all its gyrations, it really never does much at the surface lol.

I know, it was pretty boring when it came to actual precip depiction.  To Bristow’s point, fun to at least ‘track’ something even if its a more conducive pattern that may not translate into anything outside the mountains.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

It's super impressive to look at h5 but for all its gyrations, it really never does much at the surface lol.

No way for it to tap the gulf. The one thing I like seeing is all of the blocking modelled up north. Hopefully that comes true. Blocking that severe is a pretty stable pattern. Although as modelled I would be worried about suppression. But I am always worried about something when it comes to snow around here. 

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