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BrandonC_TX

April 14 Severe Weather

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Even though this isn't my subforum, I might as well start a thread for this as there is an enhanced risk in place across mainly southeastern Ohio, though central Ohio (incl. Columbus) is on the edge of the enhanced risk.  There are 30% wind / 15% hail / 5% tornado probabilities so far.

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The 5z HRRR run tries to bring some potent looking supercells through/near the Columbus metro area and into NE OH.  If that run verifies I wouldn't be surprised to see higher TOR probabilities.  Earlier HRRR runs are a bit more tempered though, though suggestive of discrete storms.  0z NAM and NAM3K seem pretty nasty too, with areas of high (4+) 0-3km EHI in southern and eastern Ohio.  GFS-based models are a lot more bearish though.

Here's the HRRR run I'm referring to.  Definitely a little bullish on the potential:

refcmp.us_ov.thumb.png.1193479b4e1be5adfd36fc9f3bc88f3b.png
 

EDIT: and the 6z HRRR run still suggests a supercell (or supercells) forming in the area of the Columbus metro, and moving into NE OH.

EDIT 2: the HRRR runs since 5z (including 6z, 7z, and 8z) have been awfully persistent with forecasting discrete storms in central OH.  RAP also seems to be keeping things somewhat discrete (at least in central OH) as well.  6z NAM3K is more a threat for SE OH.

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nice dry slot moving into the OH valley..........

 

not sure what will be the main thread for this

 

1) there is a thread in the  central/western forum covering the current storms in AL and of course the stuff in TX/LA from yesterday

2) there is a thread on the SE forum "dixie outbreak"  talking about today

3)  there is a thread in the TN valley forum covering today

4) there is talk in the general severe thread in the mid atlantic forum for today

5) there is this dead thread here

 

 

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2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

nice dry slot moving into the OH valley..........

 

not sure what will be the main thread for this

 

1) there is a thread in the  central/western forum covering the current storms in AL and of course the stuff in TX/LA from yesterday

2) there is a thread on the SE forum "dixie outbreak"  talking about today

3)  there is a thread in the TN valley forum covering today

4) there is talk in the general severe thread in the mid atlantic forum for today

5) there is this dead thread here

 

 

5). The snow has robbed a normal severe weather thread.

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4 minutes ago, NTXYankee said:

5). The snow has robbed a normal severe weather thread.

yes..but for those us that follow severe weather in general it's difficult to do that when there are multiple sub forums....  jumping from forum to forum when a storm crosses a magic line is annoying...plus there may be action in several subforums at the same  time..

 

it also scatters the severe weather "experts"

 

in the old days we had one super thread covering all areas..and in recent outbreaks just picked a thread as the "main thread" no matter what sub forum it was in

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27 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

yes..but for those us that follow severe weather in general it's difficult to do that when there are multiple sub forums....  jumping from forum to forum when a storm crosses a magic line is annoying...plus there may be action in several subforums at the same  time..

 

it also scatters the severe weather "experts"

 

in the old days we had one super thread covering all areas..and in recent outbreaks just picked a thread as the "main thread" no matter what sub forum it was in

Agree, much easier for everyone to talk and those of us like myself who rely on better opinions are better served in one central location.  Clearing and warm front should make its way to cbus in a few hours.  Already thinning clouds and rain has moved on.  ILN keeps bumping up our high, currently looking at low 70’s now, perhaps more sun than anticipated.

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15 minutes ago, NTXYankee said:

Agree, much easier for everyone to talk and those of us like myself who rely on better opinions are better served in one central location.  Clearing and warm front should make its way to cbus in a few hours.  Already thinning clouds and rain has moved on.  ILN keeps bumping up our high, currently looking at low 70’s now, perhaps more sun than anticipated.

Visible satellite suggesting that clearing has started in SW OH just east of Cincinnati.  Warm front currently appears to be along the Ohio River at the KY/IN border, east to just south of Cincinnati.

I'm starting to wonder about the area of storms forming up near Evansville and whether they might try to evolve into something more significant later in the day.  A few of the models (HRRR, RAP, NAM) seem to suggest that some storms will fire up ahead of those later in the day.  There's also another area of minor showers/storms east of Indianapolis, though those are currently north of the warm front, and the ones down by Evansville are in the warm sector.

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I think this will be a rather large severe weather outbreak  area wise with multiple lines of severe storms at the same time..over the OH valley, SE and mid atlantic

 

 

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

Visible satellite suggesting that clearing has started in SW OH just east of Cincinnati.  Warm front currently appears to be along the Ohio River at the KY/IN border, east to just south of Cincinnati.

I'm starting to wonder about the area of storms forming up near Evansville and whether they might try to evolve into something more significant later in the day.  A few of the models (HRRR, RAP, NAM) seem to suggest that some storms will fire up ahead of those later in the day.  There's also another area of minor showers/storms east of Indianapolis, though those are currently north of the warm front, and the ones down by Evansville are in the warm sector.

I saw that on the more recent HRRR with the Evansville storms as I wanted to glance to see if it caught on to those.  I would expect a pretty rapid increase in temperatures with the clearing and we have a wind advisory for this afternoon once warm front comes through.  Wouldn’t doubt on some surprises today.

ILN doing a nice job in their Twitter feed keeping people updated, posted recently that the atmosphere is becoming rapidly unstable with the clearing going on and folks need to pay attention.

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28 minutes ago, NTXYankee said:

ILN doing a nice job in their Twitter feed keeping people updated, posted recently that the atmosphere is becoming rapidly unstable with the clearing going on and folks need to pay attention.

That area with the clearing near and east of Cincinnati has rapidly warmed into the mid-60s, per Wundermap.  Though I'm not sure of the reliability of the observations there, some personal weather stations are showing dewpoints in the lower 60s.

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2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

if mini discrete storms continue to  develop along the OH river there are going to be issues

Already reports in Kentucky of power outages due to wind gusts of up to 50 after warm front goes through.  Not a good day dealing with that plus a threat of bad weather.

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Rain moved out of the Columbus area quicker than I expected. Atmosphere really starting to heat up; today really seems one of those "prime" severe weather days. Will be interesting to see what the SPC discusses in their 1630z update. 

I'm in Ohio for college but lived in the Mid-Atlantic my entire life. I'm used to so many of these setups busting because of morning convention. Will be interesting to see what a severe weather day in the midwest is like. 

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1 minute ago, BrandonC_TX said:

That area with the clearing near and east of Cincinnati has rapidly warmed into the mid-60s, per Wundermap.  Though I'm not sure of the reliability of the observations there, some personal weather stations are showing dewpoints in the lower 60s.

Sun is making its way out in Columbus now.

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35 minutes ago, NTXYankee said:

Sun is making its way out in Columbus now.

Those temperatures seem to be rising like a rocket ship... upper 60s to near 70 around Cincinnati now, with mid-to-upper 50s in Columbus based on Wundermap data.  I'm eagerly awaiting the 1630z SPC outlook.

The storms west of Louisville seem to be behaving themselves right now, but with temperatures in the lower-to-mid-70s (and dews in the upper 50s to lower 60s) out ahead of them, I don't know how much longer that will be the case.  If those dews can get any higher, I bet it's only a matter of time before they strengthen.

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TOR probs increased

FARTHER NORTH, SUBSTANTIAL INSOLATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MOST OF THE   OH AND TN VALLEYS IN BETWEEN THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE SWATH OVER THE   APPALACHIANS AND SURFACE CYCLONE/COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. THE DEEP   CYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHWEST IN WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOWER   GREAT LAKES WITH ITS ATTENDANT NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED COLD FRONT   PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS. THE ROBUST BOUNDARY-LAYER   HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AMID UPPER 50S TO LOW   60S DEW POINTS. INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED NEAR THE   SURFACE CYCLONE AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH   THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HOLD   SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS SHOULD YIELD   ENLARGEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS COUPLED WITH 60+ KT EFFECTIVE   SHEAR TO SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO RISK CENTERED ON THE   UPPER OH VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  

 

 

 

swody1_tornadoprob.png?v=479

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10 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

TOR probs increased

Not surprised at all.  I had thought the area between Columbus and Pittsburgh was going to be the primary focus for tornadic development, but I'm wondering a bit about areas to the west of that 10% outline as well.  The train of thought so far (and supported by the models, esp. HRRR) seems to be that storms will develop out ahead of those storms currently in south-central Indiana at the moment, which look like they have started to strengthen (though still sub-severe) based on the radar returns.

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32 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

Those temperatures seem to be rising like a rocket ship... upper 60s to near 70 around Cincinnati now, with mid-to-upper 50s in Columbus based on Wundermap data.  I'm eagerly awaiting the 1630z SPC outlook.

The storms west of Louisville seem to be behaving themselves right now, but with temperatures in the lower-to-mid-70s (and dews in the upper 50s to lower 60s) out ahead of them, I don't know how much longer that will be the case.  If those dews can get any higher, I bet it's only a matter of time before they strengthen.

Now that more consistent sun has been out I expect temps to really start climbing.  Winds have started picking up

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Looks like an area of convection might be trying to go up west of Cincinnati, near Versailles, IN.  Looks fairly insignificant even relative to the storms SW of Bloomington, IN for the moment, though.

EDIT: Meanwhile, based on this weather station at OSU, temperatures in Columbus are rising fast.  Mid-60s are already present at the time of this edit.

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ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0341  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1225 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...WESTERN WEST  
VIRGINIA  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 141725Z - 141930Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY IN EASTERN  
KENTUCKY WITH AGITATED CUMULUS NOW VISIBLE ON SATELLITE. STORM  
INITIATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. STRONG DEEP-LAYER  
WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE  
OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE FORTHCOMING IN THE  
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  
  
DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW APPROACHING WESTERN  
KENTUCKY, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE  
DISCUSSION AREA. AN AREA OF ENHANCED CUMULUS, PER VISIBLE SATELLITE,  
ALONG A CONFLUENCE AXIS HAS DEVELOPED IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE  
CONTINUED VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THESE CLOUDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE  
ON TIMING FROM CAMS, STORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE 2-3 HOURS AWAY.  
REGION VAD PROFILES SHOW BETWEEN 50-70 KTS OF FLOW FROM 850-700 MB.  
ACCORDINGLY, LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE RELATIVELY LARGE -- WHICH HAS  
BEEN SAMPLED WELL BY THE JKL VAD -- ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT  
NOW NEARING WILMINGTON, OH. AS HEATING AND MOISTENING OF THE  
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES, MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH AROUND  
1000 J/KG. STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR  
OF 60-75 KTS. THIS PARAMETER SPACE SUGGEST SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE  
OF ALL HAZARDS. A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  
  
..WENDT/GRAMS.. 04/14/2019  
   
 

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Most of Ohio is clearing out now..

 

there seems to be a couple of confluence axis...the eastern one over eastern KY might be the most interesting as the CU field is more cellular..if storms do form here looks like they will move NNE into eastern OH

also discrete stuff now gong up west of Cincy in the  confluence axis SPC mentioned

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If I were chasing I would base myself at Marietta Ohio for late this afternoon and evening.  Of course that is hilly terrain in se Ohio.  Some storms starting to form around Berea and Winchester KY now.

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I'd imagine SPC will be pulling the trigger on a watch pretty soon. Convection underway along the southern IN/OH state line as well as in nrn and ern KY moving into a sneaky but good environment. Clear sector is larger than I had predicted it to be, sun about to pop out here in NW OH, so the entire south, central, and ern part of the state will be good to go for later.

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The reality that there could be multiple lines or bands of storms today is a concerning factor.  Can't really let your guard down in one place until the entire system has passed through your area.

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RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 63  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
235 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  EASTERN KENTUCKY  
  SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO  
  WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL  
  900 PM EDT.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY  
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
  
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND  
SPREAD EAST, LIKELY CONSOLIDATING INTO A LINE NEAR THE WEST VIRGINIA  
AND OHIO BORDER AREA IN THE EVENING. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT  
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN THREATS

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Today could be more significant than yesterday turned out to be over the MDT risk area in LA. The amount of real estate covered by red boxes is reminiscent of some larger outbreaks, although the parameters aren't extreme.

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3 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Today could be more significant than yesterday turned out to be over the MDT risk area in LA. The amount of real estate covered by red boxes is reminiscent of some larger outbreaks, although the parameters aren't extreme.

I doubt it, but any chance that we get upgraded to a moderate in the next spc outlook? 

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3 minutes ago, WxLaura said:

I doubt it, but any chance that we get upgraded to a moderate in the next spc outlook? 

Doubtful but I wouldn't rule it out. Regardless, the environment should be supportive of a few tornadic supercells across the area. How many and how strong they get remains to be seen.

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