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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

April/May Medium-Long range

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16 hours ago, nj2va said:

It’s actually a joke that the NWS even has that publically available...what a mess.

Admit it, you would probably be bitching if it wasn't available. :D

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On 4/9/2019 at 6:47 PM, nj2va said:

It’s actually a joke that the NWS even has that publically available...what a mess.

Well, when Yellow Stone goes it will forecast 7, 788, 789, 657 inches of snow. ( give or take 100, 000 inches )     No model is perfect  LOL     

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From Don S .  ( seems Don thinks May for the NYC area will be on the warmer side, I tend to agree. )  Also, the Western Atlanic is warming up as well,  I noticed last week. I am just hoping we don't set records again for super high dews that last from May to October again, like last summer. 

 

<<<< 

This afternoon, the clouds broke and the sun returned. The temperature soared into the middle 60s across the region. Tomorrow and Tuesday could see even warmer temperatures.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.

 

The SOI was -12.84 today.

 

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.721.

 

The closing 10 days of the month will likely be generally warmer than normal. Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 97%. There is also an implied 77% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 63% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record.

 

The mean temperature for May following April cases with a mean temperature of 56.0° or above is 63.0°. It is likely that April 2019 will finish with a mean temperature of 56.0° or above. The dynamic guidance and statistical guidance are in agreement that May will wind up on the warm side of normal in the New York City area.

 

On April 20, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.009(RMM). The amplitude was above the April 19-adjusted figure of 0.878. The April 20 amplitude ended the 37-day stretch during which the amplitude was below 1.000. That was the longest such stretch since the MJO was at a low amplitude for 39 consecutive days from April 21, 2015 through May 29, 2015.
 

>>>>>

 

 

 

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We are still headed down, the ultimate effect on the global temps and certain weather indicies to hard to predict. 

I believe there might be an asscoiation with more volcanic eruptions during the lower solar cycles, or lowest point in the solar min. https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/st07500u.html

 

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15 hours ago, frd said:

We are still headed down, the ultimate effect on the global temps and certain weather indicies to hard to predict. 

I believe there might be an asscoiation with more volcanic eruptions during the lower solar cycles, or lowest point in the solar min. https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/st07500u.html

 

The correlation to increased snowfall in the mid Atlantic seems to be the winter immediately following the minimum. 

However, it’s such a small sample size the correlation could be due to coincidence with other factors. 

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1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

lol welcome back. 

Nice -NAO -EPO pattern coming up

You would think that it's gonna do that "ofc its gonna verify in spring and not winter" again but not this year. So much for those -NAO forecasts and relentless cold that was promised by twitterweatherologists back in the beginning of April.

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9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The correlation to increased snowfall in the mid Atlantic seems to be the winter immediately following the minimum. 

However, it’s such a small sample size the correlation could be due to coincidence with other factors. 

Good point psu, in a grand sense we should know soon enough, but some additional patience will be required, as it looks like we still have a ways  to go. 

This will be a rather low solar min.   

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Looks like May arrives with the WAR starting to gain traction, and also precip on the increase as well.

From Mount Holly NWS 

With the strengthening ridge retrogressing into the Southeast early
next week, the front associated with the Monday night system will
not make it far to the south. In fact, it may be within the CWA for
much of the rest of the week. This would allow for subsequent
systems to move into the area, providing frequent bouts of
showers/storms. The first system appears to affect the region on
Tuesday and Tuesday night, with the GFS/CMC/ECMWF all hinting at
this potential. With a lengthy southerly fetch to the south of the
quasi-stationary front, instability should be increasing (both
boundary-layer based near/to the south of the boundary and elevated
poleward of the boundary). Increased mention of thunder on Tuesday
and Wednesday as a result.

The CMC would suggest that ridging intensifies sufficiently for the
warm sector to filter into the entire area on Wednesday, but the
GFS/ECMWF are somewhat more skeptical (the GFS more so than the
ECMWF). I am hesitant to follow the CMC, given its tendency to be
too amplified and too ridgy in the medium range. Maintained
mentionable PoPs across the area as a result, though they are subtly
higher north of the Interstate 76 corridor. Notably, the models
suggest heavy precipitation in New York/New England on Wednesday as
a surface low moves through and considerable large-scale lift
combines with increased moisture/instability to produce widespread
showers/storms. My worry here is that the strong convection will
actually prevent the front from surging northward as much as the
more aggressive guidance is depicting. To some degree, this will
depend on how much convection develops in the central plains and
Mississippi Valley earlier in the week, with latent heat release via
the convection acting to amplify the subtropical ridge to our south
(i.e., downstream of the convection). Should this convection be more
pronounced than progged, the farther north solutions are more likely
to verify.

By Thursday, the ridging begins to deamplify, no doubt aided by
convective outflow to the north/west. Yet another perturbation will
move through the Northeast, initiating more convection along the
waffling boundary. Model consensus shows another such system may
affect the region on Friday, with the front making only slow
progress southward. As such, PoPs are maintained through the end of
the week.

This pattern favors heavy rainfall along and north of the quasi-
stationary boundary. Though the heaviest rainfall would be to the
north and west of the area given current model projections, there is
certainly potential for this axis to shift southward with subsequent
model runs. Additionally, at least northern portions of the CWA
could see multiple inches of rain through the week.

With models nudging the warm sector northward as subtropical ridging
becomes entrenched to our south, generally adjusted temperatures
upward next week. The biggest impacts were on Tuesday and Wednesday,
where highs/lows were raised several degrees. However, with the
front`s ultimate placement in question, the temperature forecast
next week is of lower-than-average confidence.

 

  

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Certainly a shift North with the heaviest rain this week. What appeared like a heavy rain threat a few days is now hundreds of miles North of here. 

The Southeast starts to dry out. Pretty dry for the areas near Atlanta.   

 

 p168i.gif?1556460114

 

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23 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Pretty monster -AO pattern.. we haven't seen anything like this for a while.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

Quote


"When pressure at the Arctic is exceptionally high, the AO is "negative," when pressure is low, it is "positive." Is this correct? For us newbies, please describe typical weather outcome or implication. Thank you so much (I read but often still don't understand).:)

 

 

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1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

High pressure, yes. It sometimes displaces the Polar Vortex to the midlatitudes. It works better in a more chaotic system lol

There was talk of a final; warming for the past several weeks. 

Of real interest is the -NAO, the most siginifcant drop in ages. 

Honestly, not sure the last time it went that low. Not on this chart. 

 

 

nao.sprd2.gif

 

 

 

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Pretty legit -NAO/-AO for the first 10 days of May. Sometimes the May NAO switches from April. 

Cold in Northern Europe for the first time in a long time in 7-8 days. 

+PNA has become a common pattern since April 1. I think this is reflective of +ENSO. It may or may not continue. 

 

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The Western Atlantic certainly seems to have the potential to be above average SST-wise during the summer.  Wonder the implications as we near August to October in regards to tropical activity.  To me another aspect of this may be a summer pattern of rather warm over night lows and above average precip, high dews, etc. Hard to say whether it is going to be like last summer where we set records for duration of high dew points.  

I remember waiting for Westerly winds for surfing off  the Jersey beachs and all the prevailing winds last summer averagerd moreso SW, S, ENE , etc. few frontal  passages. something says we get a few more frontal passages this summer but it still reverts back to a mostly warmer than normal summer. I don't think we go crazy hot and drought-like mostly because of normal rainfall to even above. 

 

 

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