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jaxjagman

ENSO 2018-2019

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If some of the seasonals are right by the POAMA looking at the IOD,more neutral(negative) will possibly be into summer.Nothing + looking right now to be more or less inductive to a Nino,right now anyways

Climate Model Summary  Bureau of Meteorology (1).png

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Modoki would be nice for winter enthusiasts. Models seem to warm up Nino 1 and 2 (less Modoki). We'll see; 1-2 are cold right now. Eight months out, hope is a legit forecast. We'll go Modoki El Nino.

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Been hanging out at the french quarters last week for a graduation (don't think i ever want to drink again)

Jamstec did a reverse from it's last update.The IODI was closer to a +0.5 now hovering around +2 into Sept-Oct..What would have been more trough in the west with "AN" temps in the Valley this winter,is reversed with with more trough in the east and "BN" temps in the Valley.Stronger more modoki Nino look close if not a moderate one.No real signs of any let go with the wet pattern through fall,no signs of any drought anyways.

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Atmospheric response trending ahead of SSTs adds some confidence in the El Nino story for this winter. Main Weather Forecasting forum has a detailed debate, and I lean toward the El Nino solution. Subsurface is warmest Modoki region, but right now that detail is still in my wish-cast category. Again, I do think some kind of El Nino is quite possible.

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On 6/10/2018 at 12:06 PM, nrgjeff said:

Insert the It's Happening guy. My opinion only.

Like the way the IMME  looks into fall severe season"Modoki" in which Modoki goes from JULY-DEC .But into Dec it's showing the warmest SST'S into region 3.But it's much weaker than the NMME with it's basin wide moderate look,but we're still talking months away

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May the PDO warmed  .Not all Ninos  seem to work the same.The super Nino of 82-83,in May of 1982(I.E) the PDO cooled to -1.17 and more or less fluctuated back and forth from negative to positive the remainder of that said year,1982.

 

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Alex, I'll take the somewhat uncommon (but not rare) -PDO and El Nino for $400. What is, blowtorch? Well, maybe get some severe weather.

Just kidding! We do not know how the PDO will work out. Confidence is building on the El Nino since we are in summer well past the spring model choke barrier.

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8 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

NMME update during "DJF"

NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season5 png  800×618 .png

As Jeff noted, not sure the North Pacific helps us....but that is a decent look if maybe on the "too warm" side for the Nino.  Now, what is interesting is the EC of NA w those above normal temps.  Looks like Noreaster city w a Nino in place - just a layman's opinion on my part so TIFWIW.

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Latest IMME shows a more basin  wide.Seasonals keep trending away from a Modoki in winter.but to be honest the IMME peaks in Dec and falls off in Jan,will we would even achieve a actual Nino on the tri-monthlies?Maybe the IMME is to cool or maybe its picking up on something

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Jamstec the last update shows a more weak/moderate Nino,don't really look Modoki in winter and like the IMME it peaks into winter then falls off.Would make a interesting winter though as it looks even colder this last update.

Low latitude Climate Prediction Research|JAMSTEC.png

1.png

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Downwelling Kelvin Wave right now into region 3 with into the thermocline you see some cooling and west of that you see some upwelling with warmer waters getting into the surface in 3.4 and even 3 as well.This is much like what some of the seasonals are showing for a potential Modoki look into fall severe season,but we'll see

Climate Prediction Center   Monitoring and Data   Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomaly Animation.png

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The OLR shows the KW into Asia making it into 3.4 and 3,this should downwell the warmer temps closer to the surface, this is where your warmer SST's are showing  right now into the thermocline east of the IDL,into the 2nd week of August and Mid month.Looks to be a more significant KW(MJO) starting to develop into the IO next week or shortly after,then towards the end of the month into 3.4 potentially.This could change most certaintly.We also could be seeing some potential tropical genesis into Florida/GOM,east coast with a possible KW being shown right now towards the end of the month

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

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There has been a down welling Kelvin Wave recently into 3.4,tried to find a dictionary resemblance somewhat to help understand

 

 Downwelling phase:  Normally, winds blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific, which piles up warm water in the western Pacific. A weakening of these winds starts the surface layer of water cascading eastward.  The thick warm layer sloshes east, pushing down the thermocline as it goes, thus we call this a “downwelling” wave.  The thermocline is the boundary between the warmer, near surface mixed layer and colder deeper water (4).  Because of this downward push as the wave travels eastward, it is harder for the colder, deeper water to affect the surface so near-surface temperatures are often above average. This will often (not always) warm the surface temperatures and plant the seeds for an El Niño (5).

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz gif  783×979 .png

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Looking back through the 2000s when the surface and below-surface cross-sections look like now, odds are pretty good for the weak/moderate El Nino. Right on the cusp of the two would be great! (Office Space meme)

Few folks are haunted by the ghosts of last year. This year is quite different. LY had started to crater by August. Consensus in the energy world is weak/mdt El Nino. It might fade mid-winter but does not break the deal. They are supposed to peak in late fall early winter; hence, the name. Literally it is the Christmas Child, El Nino in Spanish.

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35 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

They are supposed to peak in late fall early winter; hence, the name. Literally it is the Christmas Child, El Nino in Spanish.

Chris-Farley-El-Nino-Is-Spanish-For-The-

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