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jaxjagman

ENSO 2018-2019

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6 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Don't expect it to go El Nino anytime soon.. subsurface for this late in the Winter may even support a Nina rebound in the Summer if it doesn't persist at the surface 

When is the last time that we had three consecutive La Nina winters?

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La Nina will fade out this year. We just do not know when. Later would be better for storm chasers. After May I no longer have a dog in the hunt.

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14 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

When is the last time that we had three consecutive La Nina winters?

98-99, 99-00, 00-01. It's not too uncommon. 54-56 had a nice streak. 73-76 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

I think a 3rd Nina year would be weird because of Global warming bias right now. 1 center El Nino event since 2010 in this exponentially warming climate? 

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12 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Not on the ONI,there never has been

Oopps..misunderstood the question until i re-read it just now :(Thought you were talking about back to back to back Nina's with neutral/Nino in between.AFew... gave you the answer

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I'm hoping to pull out of the Nina unless we can get a -NAO in the heart of winter (it has to return at some point, it's been 7 or 8 years). That's when it seems to work. -EPO + Nina = cold desert. +EPO +NAO + Nina = soaking blowtorch.

-EPO + Nino = snowglobe, especially 40 and north even with AN temps. 

-EPO + -NAO + Nino may set records.

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Last few days 1+2 has cooled back down.No telling where the MJO is going to be.CFS wants to reform it back into the IO towards the end of the month.

66.png

44.png

55.png

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The NMME's show a weak to neutral Nina through spring.Then by the time ASO rolls around it's more or less a weak to neutral Nino with a couple models showing a moderate Nino

Season 5 tmpsfc.png

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Jamstec is hinting at a potential to a more neutral Nina pattern into fall,this would be good if it's right for next winter though. If it's right and holds on with the colder SST'S in region 3 into 1+2,also,it would be good for severe fall maybe

Low latitude Climate Prediction Research|JAMSTEC.png

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9 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Official Nina

 

 

CIPS Analog Guidance.png

When the Nina hit the max low during the past two cycles....it was very, very dry (on the extreme end of things) here in the eastern Valley.  Look at when the Gatlinburg fires occurred and when we hit that extraordinary dry spell during the winter that just passed.  I think one thing that we can say is that a Nina coming after a super Nino will likely be warm.  However, if it arrives after a weaker ENSO state, extremes will occur.  Some good lessons likely to be learned from that graph.  Was the winter of 10-11 warm or cold?  Just wondering because that was a strong Nina after a strong Nino.  

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Winter 2010-2011 was cold December and January, with multiple snow events. I thought, wow, I think I'm back in an area that gets snow. LOL X 100! OK Chatty did well in 2014 and 2015 too.

Anyway the similarity came to an abrupt end in March, when we got cold this year 2018. March-April 2011 were warmer than normal. Hopefully the divergence also means no 2011 severe. That was awful even if one likes severe wx.

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10-11 was part two of the epic return to winter after the crapfest of the 2007-2009.

As to Jeff's point, I think the 30 year average in Chattanooga was around 8 inches prior to 2000. I know it was over 12 inches for Knoxville then too.

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2010-11,i'm sure many of us thought this was going to be a great cold winter.Much BN temps "DJF" but when we got into"JFM",we torched.This warmth started into January and never let go

High Plains Regional Climate Center.png

High Plains Regional Climate Center (1).png

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The more i think of it, i think 2010-2011,wasn't that bad.The warm up actually started in Feb. as Jeff said,but it was a early winter sort of speaking.I had to go back and do some Wiki because i remember the big snow  when i was living in Lawrenceburg  was around this time frame in Jan of 2011.Also just after this was the bowling ball that came off the west coast and went due east across Nashville.Nashville got socked and we got nothing but rain in Lawrenceburg.

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/snow/201101

 

I think this was a more a two part LaNina.In"MJJ" of 2011 above on the chart the ENSO went neutral (negative) -0.4 this was no longer classified a Nina.But during"JJA" the ENSO  went back to a Nina,but you could probably just say it was a Nina.

 

But f you want to compare this Nina back to the 2010-2011 i might look at 2011-2012 instead,but that's not going to happen.March of 2012 was brutal warm as  well as March of 2011

 

The last 15 years the coldest March colder than this one in 2018 was back into 2005 coming off a weak Nino

 

march.png

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Subsurface trends early 2018 has 7 analogs.. 3 went El Nino, 4 were Neutral. The way it's going, I would guess Weak or low end Moderate El Nino as a max, about the same % chance for Neutral, and slight chance we go back to Weak Nina in the Fall.

Hurricane season is probably active with a lot of US misses.

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Nina is more neutral(negative) today.Far as cane season goes the GOM in the early season should be what the Valley would look at right now that could effect us.The MDR in the GOM has been running abnormally warm

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz_Anom_Comp gif  783×979 .png

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For severe enthusiasts it would be nice to get warming in regions 1-2. Right now it's in 3. For next winter enthusiasts, yeah Nino 3.4 warm works.

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