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Tn Valley Severe Weather

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2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Likely a TDS for 2 scans that came close or crossed SR 63. Luckily I remembered that place as being pretty rural, however there are definitely structures scattered about there. 

There are some reports of damage to homes coming in from that area. 

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HRRR has been consistent on developing cells further south into the valley. Curious to see if this occurs or not and what those cells will do given the tornadic cells in North TN.

refcmp_uh001h.us_state_ky_tn.png

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Had some quarter to slightly larger hail. No Tornado thankfully. The debris ball passed a but NW of me.  




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8 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

Risk was marginal, but we did have tornadoes today in a part of the state that rarely sees them.

 

 

TennesseeTornadoes2020.png

 

I'll be curious to see if they find anything in Campbell. Generally, as the graphic shows we are the least Tornado prone County in the whole state.  

The possible Tornado today was just right along the border of Campbell and Scott. The 1 confirmed Tornado in that 70 year period here also barely clipped Campbell County but on the far eastern border. I've always assumed Cross Mtn plays a big role in disrupting storms that are possibly tornadoic here since 99 percent of them seem to move SW to NE and it shoots up to nearly 4000 feet in the SW section of Campbell. The one Tornado that had hit here came from the NW to the SE on the Claiborne line. 

 

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Thursday was an example of Upper Cumberland Plateau yet again. @John1122 very glad you are safe! Did you take that picture? The Great Plains feel!

I was unable to get out on Thursday; but, I was wondering if that Upper Plateau effect would spin up something. I would have tried harder to get out if I knew it'd be like that. Seems the elevation improves low level inflow to storms. Plateau is up in the stronger southerly wind those days.

I don't see as much of the effect on the Lower Plateau. Perhaps the Upper Plateau is more continuous. Lower Plateau is interrupted by the Sequatchie Valley.

NWS has studied the Plateau and found no statistically significant anomaly. I agree overall. Action is usually south and west. However on Marginal days I feel like the Plateau over-performs. Elevation may allow an otherwise meh day to produce up there.

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Thursday was an example of Upper Cumberland Plateau yet again. [mention=499]John1122[/mention] very glad you are safe! Did you take that picture? The Great Plains feel!
I was unable to get out on Thursday; but, I was wondering if that Upper Plateau effect would spin up something. I would have tried harder to get out if I knew it'd be like that. Seems the elevation improves low level inflow to storms. Plateau is up in the stronger southerly wind those days.
I don't see as much of the effect on the Lower Plateau. Perhaps the Upper Plateau is more continuous. Lower Plateau is interrupted by the Sequatchie Valley.
NWS has studied the Plateau and found no statistically significant anomaly. I agree overall. Action is usually south and west. However on Marginal days I feel like the Plateau over-performs. Elevation may allow an otherwise meh day to produce up there.

It would naturally lower LCL and CIN right?


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Looks like a potential active pattern coming up.Trough going through East Asia and a recurving phoon potentially.Should start  around the 25th or 26th i believe in our parts, depending on timing and what it shows the next few days

9cb5e05e-4597-48c7-92df-390280aeb92b.gif

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GFS 11-15 day does have a low-amplitude trough come through the South, which is a favored pattern in late April. Huge full-latitude troughs are always over-rated. Particularly by late April, low amplitude can be high impact.

I know some members are not fond of severe wx. That far out we're just jawboning. Don't worry about it. Just something for enthusiasts to track.

Also regarding Plateau LCL and CIN @PowellVolz those are right and probably as important as the low level wind speed.

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Maybe we can tee up some severe late this week or the weekend (Fri-Sun Apr. 23-25) timing is way up in the air.

GFS goes from not finding the system, to sending through two chunks of energy. Some debacles never change. Euro and its Parallel (new Euro on-deck soon) are consistent on severe somewhere in the South; however, tracks are all over the place. Mid South, Deep South, Gulf Coast only, poor timing for Tennessee Valley, ideal timing for Tenn. 

For those who get anxious, this is still just the jawboning stage. 

One thing about late April is the Deep South is not so sloppy. Proper timing on a weekend and I go!

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45 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Maybe we can tee up some severe late this week or the weekend (Fri-Sun Apr. 23-25) timing is way up in the air.

GFS goes from not finding the system, to sending through two chunks of energy. Some debacles never change. Euro and its Parallel (new Euro on-deck soon) are consistent on severe somewhere in the South; however, tracks are all over the place. Mid South, Deep South, Gulf Coast only, poor timing for Tennessee Valley, ideal timing for Tenn. 

For those who get anxious, this is still just the jawboning stage. 

One thing about late April is the Deep South is not so sloppy. Proper timing on a weekend and I go!

Not very exciting for us in the Valley indeed right now

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Well we may want to look at the 28th or 29th for some severe potential 

Yeah this is starting to look like a real event


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All models are showing the same type setup and timing is really on point too... Impressive this far out! I know I uploaded just two however even the GFS is showing the same idea.

D3F093D7-573F-4B36-B074-37FF41F5A0F5.jpeg

0B0094AA-FBCD-4F3F-9661-B7FD05DE45D3.jpeg

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ECMWF is somewhat on board too. Possible the trough is filling and lifting north at the time, leaving only modest kinematics over the South. We will have instability, but will we have the dynamics?

Naturally I wish I was in the Plains for these next 2-3 systems. Soon. Very soon.

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