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Chinook

Mountain West Discussion

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Well, folks, I can see vodka cold is finally coming on into the picture. I was looking at the 06z, 4488 hour ECMWF, and it shows brutal cold air heading down the plains by June 12, 2018. My worry, my concerns are that there could be a monster storm coming up out of the Gulf at the same time, that could send snow totals into orbit. Mind you, this is NOT a forecast but just ducks being born about to walk over to the pond and dipping their feet into the water. This correlates well with my thoughts I had every since November 16, 2000. Remember, we have been alluding to this first and for some time now. My fear is that the Cahirs connection and the French Connection will intertwine and bring snow and cold all the way down to Tampico, Mexico. Cold produces snow. These things are telling me that again, we have to watch very carefully the I-95 corridor. The snow patrol will have something to smile about this June. Vodka cold. Texas may have snow. Football picks in the special Saturday update.

Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got.

 

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/ne.weather/tampico|sort:date/ne.weather/YVHdzTzi6Fk/JLXVii3nI3kJ

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

Well, folks, I can see vodka cold is finally coming on into the picture. I was looking at the 06z, 4488 hour ECMWF, and it shows brutal cold air heading down the plains by June 12, 2018. My worry, my concerns are that there could be a monster storm coming up out of the Gulf at the same time, that could send snow totals into orbit. Mind you, this is NOT a forecast but just ducks being born about to walk over to the pond and dipping their feet into the water. This correlates well with my thoughts I had every since November 16, 2000. Remember, we have been alluding to this first and for some time now. My fear is that the Cahirs connection and the French Connection will intertwine and bring snow and cold all the way down to Tampico, Mexico. Cold produces snow. These things are telling me that again, we have to watch very carefully the I-95 corridor. The snow patrol will have something to smile about this June. Vodka cold. Texas may have snow. Football picks in the special Saturday update.

Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got.

 

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/ne.weather/tampico|sort:date/ne.weather/YVHdzTzi6Fk/JLXVii3nI3kJ

Chinook, you been talking to Typhoon Tip from the NE forum? I think your marbles have officially been lost...

I think there are new models based on the evolution of Jupiter's Red Spot that correlate well with snow totals in Miami, FL.

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Maybe you should move down here Chinook - we at least had snow flurries today. No accumulation of course so the dry streak continues.

Snow down to the lowlands today in Mexico is pretty neat to see though. Some of the organic methods, EAR/BSR are hinting at a pattern change soon anyway given what is supposed to develop in Western China/Mongolia that acts as a proxy for our weather a few weeks in advance.

It is somewhat scary that water-year to date Wyoming is the only state that looks normal. Arizona in particular is getting nothing - here the mountains are at least getting 1-4" snows from cold fronts every so often.

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf

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19 hours ago, Mercurial said:

Well, the pattern looks less crappy starting the 16th or so.

Could not be much worse than it is right now.  super BORING pattern here in OR

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No, that was a weather enthusiast (not me) making fun of Joe Bastardi's column on 1/22/02. I thought of it because there was cold and snow down into part of Mexico recently. I was never quite that creative. In his column, back then, Joe had a tendency to use the phrases, "vodka cold," "the ducks are on the pond," and "we have been alluding to this for some time now," and the "Cahirs Connection," which is a ridge near the Caspian Sea. "The French Connection" was a movie, not connected to Joe Bastardi.

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It's too early to know how the winter will turn out overall, but some of the models have the MJO reaching phase seven coherently in about a week. Would love to see it make it to phase 8/1/2 right between Dec 16-Dec 31, would be cold/snowy out here.

lBN7EHe.png

2006 had December only in 8-1-2-3, and 2015 was 4-5-6-7.  In December, 5,7,8,2,3 are all pretty cold out here.

When we went through 5 recently it triggered the random cold snap after the record warmth in November (high was 37F yesterday, it was 63F as late as Dec 3 here).

MJO by analog years in Dec:

1996: 2-3-4-5-6-7

2005: no coherent movement

2007: 8-1-2-3-4-5

2008: 5-6-7 (and it did snow in Houston/New Orleans in phase seven I believe, we're near seven now)

2012: 1 briefly

 

MJO by analog years in Jan:

1996 (Jan 97): 7-8-1

2005: 8-1-3-4-5-6-7

2007: 5-6-7-8-1-2-3

2008: 6-7-8-1

2012: 4-5-6-7-8

7 & 8 show up in each of the analogs with historical MJO data for January, with 6 and 1 fairly common too. Would expect a run from 6-7-8-1 in January? Six is quite warm in the East, would be a near normal month for the SW. Four and two are hot/cold phases for the SW, but they don't show up much in the analogs for January.

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I tried to get in a pic of Long's Peak and lenticulars. Long's Peak is on the right. I got in a couple of other better resolution lenticular pics without Long's Peak. In the long range, the GFS and Euro ensembles show a large amount of cooling on day 10-15 for western Canada and Montana. That's the best news, and that's not even specifically that great for Colorado, as none of the ensemble means show cold or snowy for Colorado. 

R2ACQl1.jpg

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I did see a sundog today.  Lasted for several hours actually, as the fog was just barely starting to break up at the Big Mountain base area.  Big Mountain (the local ski resort here, a.k.a. Whitefish Mtn) usually has a persistant fog layer toward the bottom or middle portion of the mountain, especially when we ridge.

 

24909647_10214744120414539_5515311706740

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Would say that if the La Nina weakens/dies in Spring, but the STJ remains active but shifts northward, say in March, April, or May, this pattern could translate north by 200-500 miles or so and end up producing good snow in the SW, Plains, other places lacking the white stuff so far.

rFhgtHl.gif

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Denver has a temp of 60 and a dew point of -11, a 71 degree dew point difference and a 5.06% relative humidity. This is turning out to be one of the most terrible patterns I've seen for this area in December. Usually we have a decent hope of 3" in the month of December. In fact, 100% of the Decembers that I have been here have provided 4" or better in Fort Collins.

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One of the analogs I used was 1996, which was a terribly dry December. I'm hopeful we avoid that, as the models are at least hinting at fantasy storms after Dec 19 or so. The city has had 20+ years of measurable precip in a row in December, but historically it didn't always happen - so wouldn't be shocking if December ended up completely dry here.

My Nov 16 - Dec 15 temperatures are going to end up as a split of 1932 & 2012, or maybe 2008 & 2012, so will be interesting to see how mid-Dec to mid-January ends up. Suspect its either frigid or very warm, before we relax to relatively normal temperatures for late January and February.

I had 92 nights Oct 1 - May 31 at or below freezing in the city, if it stays pretty dry, suspect the inversions will continue and we'll have a shot at it even if the highs end up well above average overall. So far, the Canadian Model seems to be doing OK for December from its November run, it had the cold by NV and warmth elsewhere, that has been the case so far even with the snow making it down to Mexico and Florida. We're 10 days into the month now, so will take a lot for the anomalous warmth/cold to reverse by Dec 31.

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19 hours ago, Chinook said:

Denver has a temp of 60 and a dew point of -11, a 71 degree dew point difference and a 5.06% relative humidity. This is turning out to be one of the most terrible patterns I've seen for this area in December. Usually we have a decent hope of 3" in the month of December. In fact, 100% of the Decembers that I have been here have provided 4" or better in Fort Collins.

I agree this is one of the most terrible patterns I've seen for this area in December - it reminds me of 1976 which was a very bad drought year.  The mountains, ski areas and eastern plains agricultural areas were all hurting badly.  I think the temperatures are even warmer this November/December than that year, which is scary.  Also, there was only a fraction of the population living in Colorado in 1976, than there is now.  That is the scariest part for me - years like this have happened before and will continue to happen.  Where will all the water come from to support all the demands?  Something will have to give....:(

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So this is my 4th winter here in Central OR and every winter has been very different.  ( moved here from Virginia) 

This December has been the longest inversion I have experienced.  Four out of the past 7 mornings with temps in single digits ( 5 last night ) other 3 nights in teens and highest temp for the past 7 days of 39.   

Meanwhile the higher cascades have been mostly in the 40's day and night.  Looks like 4 more days and then pattern shifts here.   

Frost on the north / north east areas has been building up day after day where it now resembles a light snow cover.

Dec9-2017.thumb.jpeg.d38b247197953761d02e84099e5f1546.jpeg

    Frosty.thumb.jpeg.765ab008db5262cf8682771d3036ca42.jpeg

Dec11-2017.thumb.jpeg.0002f4e9fe1cb505ea4c9fc586cb88f6.jpeg

 

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15 hours ago, snownut said:

So this is my 4th winter here in Central OR and every winter has been very different.  ( moved here from Virginia) 

This December has been the longest inversion I have experienced.  Four out of the past 7 mornings with temps in single digits ( 5 last night ) other 3 nights in teens and highest temp for the past 7 days of 39.   

Meanwhile the higher cascades have been mostly in the 40's day and night.  Looks like 4 more days and then pattern shifts here.   

Frost on the north / north east areas has been building up day after day where it now resembles a light snow cover.

Dec9-2017.thumb.jpeg.d38b247197953761d02e84099e5f1546.jpeg

    Frosty.thumb.jpeg.765ab008db5262cf8682771d3036ca42.jpeg

Dec11-2017.thumb.jpeg.0002f4e9fe1cb505ea4c9fc586cb88f6.jpeg

 

Snownut,

thanks for that post and the neat pics. I know we need to be patient and things will turn around (eventually).  I for one really like snow during the holiday season November thru December.  Don’t mean to beat a dead horse but this Nov/Dec is shaping up to be a top 5 I’ve experienced for record breaking warmth, no snow and just sheer boredom with the weather pattern. Other winter seasons that were horrible in this regard:

1976-77

1980-81

2002-03

2005-06

2011-12

it seems there were some very dry winters here on the CO front range in the early to mid-1960’s but they did not also have the extreme warmth we have had through much of the 2000’s.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, finnster said:

Snownut,

thanks for that post and the neat pics. I know we need to be patient and things will turn around (eventually).  I for one really like snow during the holiday season November thru December.  Don’t mean to beat a dead horse but this Nov/Dec is shaping up to be a top 5 I’ve experienced for record breaking warmth, no snow and just sheer boredom with the weather pattern. Other winter seasons that were horrible in this regard:

1976-77

1980-81

2002-03

2005-06

2011-12

it seems there were some very dry winters here on the CO front range in the early to mid-1960’s but they did not also have the extreme warmth we have had through much of the 2000’s.

 

 

I have not lived in your area and limited time here in PNW but I think your climate is more likely to have big swings in temperatures compared to the Pacific modified climate here.  I do know the snows in CO are lower water content and great for skiing.   Mt Bachelor (here in Oregon) probably has the best chance for powder versus  "cascade concrete snows"  as they are nick named here.     

How did the rest of the seasons you mentioned pan out in your area ? 

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The last third of December looks intensely cold for the West and the Plains and this has been insanely consistent on the GFS for the past several days. I have never seen the GFS with near 100% consistency two weeks out for the past 12 or so runs. This is 1983 style cold. We will soon be in the range of the Canadian and Euro 10 day forecasts so assuming they have the same idea the poor start to the winter will soon be forgotten. I will be up at over 9,000' in NM Christmas week so I am hoping for good snow, though I can do without the -20 to -40 degree lows this type of pattern will bring to NM.

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Yikes- hope there is a little insulation on the ground by then, or anything that contains water will be in tough shape. I hate it when all the shrubs and a bunch of the trees freeze and die like they did 4 years ago when we went from mid 60s to negative teens in 72 hrs.

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I agree the model ensembles are looking much cooler for the northern plains, especially day 9-15 for the Denver area. The GFS now has some pretty big fantasy snow for Colorado. If you want to check that out, that's fine. I am leaving on the 22nd so I hope there's not too much in the way of bad weather on that day. Generally planes can take off with some snow on the runway, they just can't land very well. I will perhaps be gone for a snowy time period (??)

Confused lenticular cloud. This was from the day of lenticulars, when the 500mb flow was out of the north

GG27twL.jpg

 

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