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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Figured it's been a few months since a new thread. We are now in the middle of the warmest time of the year. Interesting photo from Tom Niziol. 

Also from the Buffalo NWS Facebook page about the latest tornadoes.

We've had several questions about historical tornadoes near Buffalo or in Erie County with the recent tornadoes. The first image is all historical tornadoes from 1950 to 2015 from the NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center archive. The last tornado in Erie County was in 2006 in Cheektowaga, and the last F2 or stronger tornado was in 1987 in Cheektowaga. The strongest tornado in the record was an F3 near Eden in 1970. The second image overlays the two new tornado tracks in Erie County from July 20, 2017.

 

GqItw5b.jpg

 

9XNsWW6.jpg

 

 

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Had a chance to take a drive around the damage area today.  WOW.  So much different seeing it up close.  The pictures don't do the amount of damage justice compared to seeing it up close.  Wanted to hike it through the ridge but they still had the west side of the park closed.  The one stretch on Newton where almost every tree was leveled and that structure on Druaght that was ripped apart was crazy.  

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7 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Had a chance to take a drive around the damage area today.  WOW.  So much different seeing it up close.  The pictures don't do the amount of damage justice compared to seeing it up close.  Wanted to hike it through the ridge but they still had the west side of the park closed.  The one stretch on Newton where almost every tree was leveled and that structure on Druaght that was ripped apart was crazy.  

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Yeah, the damage was a lot worse than I expected it to be. Only a weak EF2 tornado too, tornado wind strength is just incredible. The one that hit Moore Oklahoma had 300 MPH+ winds, 3 times what hit Hamburg, can you even imagine what that would do?!?

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20 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah that's definitely a tornado. 

Storm report confirms radar indicated rotation however no damage on the ground was reported. 

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Not 100% to scale but I really wanted to map out the path of the Hamburg tornado as it really seemed to zig zag around.  Made this map based on what I saw driving around and the air one video.  The red lines are areas of visible damage to try and track the path.  Looks like it made some sharp turns and jumped around quite a bit.  Again this isn't all inclusive to all the damage but I think it gives a rough idea of the path...

 

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Did summer call it quits?  This is just down right depressing... we better be rewarded with a stellar winter after this!

 

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3 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Did summer call it quits?  This is just down right depressing... we better be rewarded with a stellar winter after this!

 

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Looks like a weak El Nino which almost always results in above average snowfall. 

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29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

They updated the Lake Effect Snow page. Goes all the way back to 1994 with every event, pretty awesome!

http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=A

Nice. Reading through that will be fun. That Dec 9-12 1995 storm was just the kind of Metro hit that we haven't been able to get in recent years. A great discussion of the effect of lake thermals in the early season affecting the heading.

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3 hours ago, WNash said:

Nice. Reading through that will be fun. That Dec 9-12 1995 storm was just the kind of Metro hit that we haven't been able to get in recent years. A great discussion of the effect of lake thermals in the early season affecting the heading.

Yeah that was the event that really got me into weather in the first place. I remember it like yesterday. The heaviest snowfall was on a Sunday, peak rates were absolutely insane. Had to be 5-6" per hour in some of that band. If that event lasted more than 18 hours it would have blown away all records. Still holds the record for heaviest 24 hour snowfall at KBUF. It was more of a SW/SSW event than a true SW event and as you know that wind direction is very rare in the winter. Cold air comes from the N/NW/W not from the SW. 

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One of the best bands ever in Metro Buffalo. 

Buffalo, New York was paralyzed on 9-10 December 1995 when the airport measured 38 in. of snow in a 24-hour period. This amount shattered the previous 24-hour snowfall record of 25.3 in. set on 10-11 January 1982. What's even more crazy is in 2014 we had places get 65" of snow in 24 hours almost doubling airports record. It really shows you the limits are endless with lake effect snow. 

hilliker10.jpeg

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Winter type pattern setting up. 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For the weekend and into the beginning of next week a large trough
will carve out over the eastern half of the boundary with the broad
upper-level low centered near the Hudson Bay. Saturday will see the
main upper level trough axis swing from the upper Ohio Valley across
the region bringing with it +6C air at 850mb pivoting across the
lower Great Lakes. Forecast models suggest a decent amount of
synoptic moisture associated with the trough axis, which, when
combined with the cold advection and lake sfc to 850 mb temp
differences around 14 to 15C, would be sufficient to support some
lake effect rain showers downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario early
Saturday. Strong diurnal heating this time of year would likely
quickly overwhelm any morning lake effect showers, transitioning to
a few widely scattered showers inland for the afternoon. These will
end Saturday evening as weak high pressure briefly builds into the
eastern Great Lakes.

A few scattered showers may return by Sunday as a weak east/west
oriented warm front develops over the southern Great Lakes. A better
chance of rain will arrive by Monday as low pressure moves from the
Ohio Valley into New England.

Temperatures will bottom out on Saturday, with cool air aloft and
some cloud cover keeping lower elevations in the lower 70s with mid
to upper 60s for higher terrain. Sunday and Monday highs will be
back into the mid 70s at lower elevations, roughly 5 degrees below
average for mid summer.


&&

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I'm not sure everyones elses thoughts, but personally I am in the camp that trends take months and months to change. Last years record breaking summer did not transition in winter and kept above normal temps going throughout the entire winter season. Seeing cooler weather now makes me think we are going to have a much better winter than the last two. 

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