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WxChallenge 2016-2017


Mallow
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4 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Looks like it payed out though looks like only 0.08 for the day but that low so far already 19

Yeah, after seeing Day 7 results and having nothing to lose, I was like... why not?

That 19 will make me 15th for the semester, but I was looking at 20th-22nd a day ago so I'm pretty happy how I did. 

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1 minute ago, WxBlue said:

Yeah, after seeing Day 7 results and having nothing to lose, I was like... why not?

That 19 will make me 15th for the semester, but I was looking at 20th-22nd a day ago so I'm pretty happy how I did. 

yea this will also my drop city especially missing one day will help that. If i didnt do as bad in KEYW with matthew then I would be sitting better in the half way point but sitting at 150 for the first half. All I can say is I have improved on my years in the past so thats what I was looking for

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  • 1 month later...

I remembered lol went 71/48/16/0.08

Saw a little bit of cooling taking place with with no clouds most kept around 50 so went just a little lower. High seemed a little iffy to me felt we could see just below 70 but who knows. As for precip gfs was the only really showing something before 6z nam and hrrr were a little so I figured go with a blend 

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70/46/18/0.06

I could see how the high is considerably higher but banking on some clouds keeping it down. It's already down to 49F with no clouds for the next several hours and a dew point of 37F I think they could conceivably get lower than the 46F I forecast. Pretty nervous about the precip. as I see the NAM has come in more aggressive on recent runs. It had been missing to the north when I made the forecast around noon.

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Getting nervous as well. Most besides hrrr still aren't at where the precip is currently. GFS has it slightly further south then the nam, so nam brings in just under .1" still gfs brings in about a quarter of an inch and looks like hrrr is somewhere in between the two.

 

Most suggest it breaks up real soon, in relative terms, so let's see. I'm hoping for less then .15" but preferably less

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60/41/19/0

I guess I'm going for a 06z high though I could see how they touch 60F tomorrow afternoon if they made it to 76F today. I can't imagine CAA will be particularly strong behind the front with mid February sun in southern MS. Precip. seems to have dampened and it looked like everything would be about done by 06z on the NAM and GFS so ignored USL. The low will be the most interesting part of tomorrow's forecast. The question is can they decouple? I think they will but I went a little above the USL to cover my ass if they don't. It seems they will have a little bit of a pressure gradient before midnight. Went around the USL and BUFKIT showing low 20s fairly close to the ground tomorrow morning. Figure they will probably mix it down then or when the front goes through.

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57/38/20/0

Looks more likely they won't still be sitting at around 60F at 6z as the front appears to be moving quickly enough.  With 850mb temps dropping to around 1C tomorrow and low clouds being stubborn into the early afternoon I was skeptical of them getting warmer than guidance.  I went for them decoupling tomorrow evening and sneaking into the 30s by 6z, which honestly was probably the least certain part of the forecast for me.  They should be pretty breezy late tonight into tomorrow morning and at least get close to 20 knots. 

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