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Mallow

WxChallenge 2016-2017

448 posts in this topic

Key West is very difficult, especially when it comes to precip. MOS tends to overestimate low temps and underestimate high temps. Low temps can get very weird here, high temps tend to be more consistent. 

 

88/78/10/0.20

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An alum now but I couldn't not do it this year 

90/77/13/0.30"

Brief logic is if they've been clear around peak heating lately they've been near 90. Persistence on the low. Wind is a crap shoot, but I think there's a decent shot at convection through early tomorrow which would make a 13kt wind easy to obtain. Rain is not a certain forecast but I think they'll get some. My hope is they get into some subsidence west of the UL tomorrow and clear things out enough to get my high. 

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Last year as Cat. 3 forecaster. Here we go...

 

88/78/13/0.25"

 

Thankful precip was close to the consensus to kick off KEYW because I have no idea on that front. Pretty confident with winds, though.

 

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I love this time of year fall is entering the area sightings of snow and now the wx challenge.

Looks like this might be my last year we will see. 

88/79/11/0.14

Biggest wild card to me was precip winds have kicked up decently to double digits so we will see.

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It's been pouring all morning to the north, west, and south, but there has been a hole right over Key West that has allowed them to escape most of the rain so far.

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21 minutes ago, Mallow said:

It's been pouring all morning to the north, west, and south, but there has been a hole right over Key West that has allowed them to escape most of the rain so far.

Just oh man what a first day lol now having winds up to 16-21knots. Precip looks pretty impressive but seems to die as it closes in on KEYW certainly an interesting city so far.

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89/79/14/0.12

Back again for another year. Went too low on the rain, need things to clear out. At least in Miami you can sort of predict which way the seabreezes will blow, but these blobs over the ocean seem completely random.

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Third year of the WXChallenge. Hoping to continue to improve forecasting skills.

Went with 87/78/8/0. Probably should've gone higher on the high temperature. Lower winds and less precip due to area of weak subsidence around South Florida, this shows up well on water vapor imagery. 

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89/80/11/0.05

 

Decided to go safe on precip since I'm holding onto top 125. Don't see why I can't follow MOS yet again if things stay mostly dry.

 

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