se WI/ne IL/nw IN/se MI lake effect snow event

[tornadotony]

There is now way they got that much LE snow from that. This was the super clipper that dumped 6-12" area wide and then probably are best LES event that I can remember, I' m not sure what the final was at ORD combining synoptic snow and LES but mdw finished with 12.9" and 15" on the north side of chi.

I think you're right. O'Hare ended with a total of 11.9" officially. I think my memory is a little skewed because we got the major shaft on that clipper (IIRC, we didn't see 2" from it).

[A-L-E-K]

Euro sounds like it's holding ground with a major EC storm, which is probably a good thing as far as this thread is concerned.

[weatherguru]

Remember Dec 11, 2000? Ohare got 11.5 and MDY got 15.5. Midway got significant lake ehancement. I remember that. There were 1-3 inch per hr snowfall rates during the overnight hrs.

[A-L-E-K]

Remember Dec 11, 2000? Ohare got 11.5 and MDY got 15.5. Midway got significant lake ehancement. I remember that. There were 1-3 inch per hr snowfall rates during the overnight hrs.

I don't remember event dates outside '99, but if it was an enhancement event, it won't be anything like this. We did have a lightning flash last year during a lake enhanced band with well over 1" per hr rates.

Also, prepare for the board to be painfully slow or crash given the EC threat.

[Tony]

12Z EURO is a beast. Should really help things out on our end of the lake

[A-L-E-K]

12Z EURO is a beast. Should really help things out on our end of the lake

We'll see, that doesn't look too good to me for our area, but it's hard to tell from those plymouth maps. I'm sure Chistorm will give us the 411 later.

[Hoosier]

The main thing that bothers me with this event is that the inversion heights don't look all that deep except for a short period on Sunday when they rise to 7-9k feet. I would still expect some pretty decent accumulations though given the duration.

[Hoosier]

12Z EURO is a beast. Should really help things out on our end of the lake

As far as 1/22/05, it did dump some decent lake snows around Chicago with the heaviest focused in Lake county Indiana. I know Keener remembers that event muhahaha

[beavis1729]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned it yet...but I believe Chicago (and IMBY, about 20 miles due W of the loop) saw quite a bit of lake effect/enhanced snow on Dec 26-28, 2000. That was the final act of that incredible month of snow, before we torched for the rest of the winter.

[TimChgo9]

12Z EURO is a beast. Should really help things out on our end of the lake

If it comes ujp the coast a bit inland just a bit, that helps, right? Moves some of the better NE winds (judging by the isobars) a bit closer, and maybe enhance the flow over the lake?

On the noon news ,Skilling was saying up to 3" is possible with the LES over the weekend...

[Hoosier]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned it yet...but I believe Chicago (and IMBY, about 20 miles due W of the loop) saw quite a bit of lake effect/enhanced snow on Dec 26-28, 2000. That was the final act of that incredible month of snow, before we torched for the rest of the winter.

I recall that but I thought that was December 29-30.

[A-L-E-K]

If it comes ujp the coast a bit inland just a bit, that helps, right? Moves some of the better NE winds (judging by the isobars) a bit closer, and maybe enhance the flow over the lake?

On the noon news ,Skilling was saying up to 3" is possible with the LES over the weekend...

At this range, 3" is a good top end target.

[weatherguru]

At this range, 3" is a good top end target.

That sucks. That doeset even warrent a advisory. Why so little on our end? NW IN would get over a foot. over 24hr period.

[Hoosier]

At this range, 3" is a good top end target.

I think Tom is underplaying it but I'm probably a little less enthused than yesterday.

[weatherguru]

If it comes ujp the coast a bit inland just a bit, that helps, right? Moves some of the better NE winds (judging by the isobars) a bit closer, and maybe enhance the flow over the lake?

On the noon news ,Skilling was saying up to 3" is possible with the LES over the weekend...

Well to pro-long the NE fetch it would actually have to run up the APPS and be powerful like ECMWF is showing. It would also thrown in some atlantic moisture over the Lake which would def help the enhancement. Doesent look like the east coast system will effect our LES potential.

Skilling 3 inch LES estimate depresses me. I thought we were seeing a 6+ set-up here.

[weatherguru]

I think Tom is underplaying it but I'm probably a little less enthused than yesterday.

Yeah how does a 24+hr LES add up to 3 inches? These could be some heavy snow bands. I think way more than if it sets up.

[A-L-E-K]

That sucks. That doeset even warrent a advisory. Why so little on our end? NW IN would get over a foot. over 24hr period.

I believe it was Hoosier, but he posted a great study on Lake Michigan lake effect snow that explained in pretty good depth what's required, maybe he can post it again. Suffice to say, there's a lot more to it than seeing NE winds for a long duration. It's also worth noting that i've seen the globals advertise seemingly long duration events for our side before only to trim them run after run as we approach the event.

Like i had alluded to before, pure lake effect events warranting headlines for Chicago are rare, even advisory level.

I think Tom is underplaying it but I'm probably a little less enthused than yesterday.

He might be a little, but we're still pretty far out which gives him plenty of time to ramp up if need be. And I'm a little less enthused as well.

Well to pro-long the NE fetch it would actually have to run up the APPS and be powerful like ECMWF is showing. It would also thrown in some atlantic moisture over the Lake which would def help the enhancement. Doesent look like the east coast system will effect our LES potential.

Skilling 3 inch LES estimate depresses me. I thought we were seeing a 6+ set-up here.

Of course it will, for better or worse.

[Hoosier]

Yeah how does a 24+hr LES add up to 3 inches? These could be some heavy snow bands. I think way more than if it sets up.

I think people tend to be gunshy with western shore events...probably for good reason. Think of it this way. Say this setup lasts for 36 hours and it snows for 18 hours at one location. It wouldn't have to snow that hard to get to 6"

[Hoosier]

Aleking, not sure if this is what you're talking about but it's a good read:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/lot/severe/SouthernLakeMichiganLES.pdf

[A-L-E-K]

I think people tend to be gunshy with western shore events...probably for good reason. Think of it this way. Say this setup lasts for 36 hours and it snows for 18 hours at one location. It wouldn't have to snow that hard to get to 6"

I can never remember a lake effect band snowing for 8 hrs much less 18. It's normally a couple hrs of diffuse unorganized showery snow with poor convergence and then 1-2 hrs as a more organized band pivots through on its way to northern Indiana. A pure lake effect setup snowing over a location in NE Illinois for 18 hrs sounds completely unrealistic to me, but i don't have the memory for past events you all do.

[A-L-E-K]

Aleking, not sure if this is what you're talking about but it's a good read:

http://www.crh.noaa....MichiganLES.pdf

That's the exact one, thanks and it's worth the refresher.

[Tony]

This is what the Euro is seeing so far. Not a good model for LES I am betting.

[KeenerWx]

As far as 1/22/05, it did dump some decent lake snows around Chicago with the heaviest focused in Lake county Indiana. I know Keener remembers that event muhahaha

How could I forget.

[A-L-E-K]

This is what the Euro is seeing so far. Not a good model for LES I am betting.

Euro precip freebies, nice.

It's not an idea LE model and it's hard to tell how much of that is LE and how much is system.

[Tony]

At this range, 3" is a good top end target.

Someone mentioned Skilling said a good 3 days of LES. Hopefully this will add up to more than 3".

[A-L-E-K]

Someone mentioned Skilling said a good 3 days of LES. Hopefully this will add up to more than 3".

I think he's using 3 days very liberally, in the sense that flurries will fly west of the border for 3 days. There won't be a nice band pointed into NE Illinois for 3 days, that's for sure.

[Hoosier]

My guess for warning criteria snows would be southeastern Cook County, eastern Will County, and central and western Lake County, IN, for a few reasons.

1) Climatological favorability: Though I cringe at using this as a reason, it is usually extremely difficult to get a sustained event for most of NE IL, especially say N of 95th Street in the city and suburbs. Impossible? Hell no, but rare.

2) Current model QPF averages: Currently, the model QPF averages a bullseye over the city. Given that the models tend to paint LE QPF a bit too far to the west, I would expect a max just to the east.

3) Synoptic setup: With the low as far to the east as this one is progged to be, even though it looks to be rather large in size, I would expect a wind profile more favorable for a NNE flow than a NE flow at this time. For a purely NE flow/a big Loop/northward threat, I would want a slow-moving low/cutoff farther to the SE, perhaps an Apps runner sort of deal, that could give a more prolonged period of NE flow.

I agree with your area to watch. I think the placement could be very similar to 1/20/09. I think Aleking got like 4" from that.

[Hoosier]

I think he's using 3 days very liberally, in the sense that flurries will fly west of the border for 3 days. There won't be a nice band pointed into NE Illinois for 3 days, that's for sure.

I wouldn't be surprised if it looks disorganized/crappy on radar much of the time except for that period on Sunday.

[weatherguru]

I believe it was Hoosier, but he posted a great study on Lake Michigan lake effect snow that explained in pretty good depth what's required, maybe he can post it again. Suffice to say, there's a lot more to it than seeing NE winds for a long duration. It's also worth noting that i've seen the globals advertise seemingly long duration events for our side before only to trim them run after run as we approach the event.

Like i had alluded to before, pure lake effect events warranting headlines for Chicago are rare, even advisory level.

He might be a little, but we're still pretty far out which gives him plenty of time to ramp up if need be. And I'm a little less enthused as well.

Of course it will, for better or worse.

I mean yeah it does have a effect on us but that large area of high pressure system in the upper Midwest also helps the NE flow.

[weatherguru]

I wouldn't be surprised if it looks disorganized/crappy on radar much of the time except for that period on Sunday.

Well the GFS is showing a nice fat single band of snow stretching down from the Lake into all of far NE IL. It doesent look weak. The band looks

pretty healthy.