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wxmx

Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

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Liking the Updated Day 8+ and Day 11+ Analogs. Some memorable snow events in those years across SE Texas in the late January/February timeframe... ;)

Hmm, I'll take a look tonight. I don't know much SE TX weather history, what dates jump out?

I've been pretty pessimistic here lately about the end of January into early February. But lets look on the optimistic side, the models have been too quick to kill the -AO/NAO so maybe that holds on longer than predicted. The crazy +AAM finally looks to be coming down, maybe the setup will retrograde some, the Pacific jet will relax and we can get some better system spacing?

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From Rick Mitchel, don't give up hope!

 

CYpgIipU0AEpns3.png

Last year was like two Hail Marys in the last minute of the game.

February is our money month. Looks like we'll need it to come through for us again, though I'm not completely writing off this weekend.

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Last year was like two Hail Marys in the last minute of the game.

February is our money month. Looks like we'll need it to come through for us again, though I'm not completely writing off this weekend.

Ha! I remember being bummed after that stretch in February, it had the potential to be epic. Then the March system was in the models and then they dropped it and then it was a last second rally for a nice storm.

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So the theme continues... on to the next one! Both the 00z Euro Para and 12z Euro show big storm potential for Texas the end of next week. We finally get some spacing between systems and things slow down a bit. However, cold air will be hard to find. It looks like a legit rain producer and I'll take that over cool and dry.

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Saw that on the 12z euro. Had a small area of the 540 line at the core.

Para is even more intriguing, esp if there was a trend colder over the next week. However, I'm not sure we've seen a cooling trend for our area, when it has mattered, in models this season. It seems like it's been D7 - 10, "wow! Look at that pattern, look at that cold!" to "will we even get a freeze?" :lol:

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As always the GEM gives the most hope for snow on Sat. It has the shortwave a bit stronger than the other models thus generating more cold and precip. The NAM is not far off with decent QPF but shortwave is a bit weaker so not as cold. GFS is too weak to generate much precip and lacks enough cold.

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My theory is the storm over NM on 12/12-13 and the blizzard from 12/26-27 will repeat with the active MJO.

 

My target dates for big storms are (+/- one day) 1/26, 2/9, 3/11, 3/25, 4/25, 5/9. One of the main reasons I have a big March and cold Spring.

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My theory is the storm over NM on 12/12-13 and the blizzard from 12/26-27 will repeat with the active MJO.

 

My target dates for big storms are (+/- one day) 1/26, 2/9, 3/11, 3/25, 4/25, 5/9. One of the main reasons I have a big March and cold Spring.

 

Interesting, MJO was in Phase 6 for the big Christmas storm? There was a big system at Thanksgiving as well, so that is pretty close to a 30ish day repeating cycle. I'm not sure the MJO is totally driving this but it's not surprising to see things relax a bit and a big consolidated system show up in the models. 

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FWD moved the rain/snow mix line pretty far to the SE over night but it still looks like anyone outside of the Red River area is out of luck. There is always the chance that we might see some mesoscale banding produce an area of heavier precipitation that might help cool the column enough for brief snow.

The GFS is still sticking with progressive and dry for next week but the 00z & 06z GEFS have trended towards the Euro. One tiniest sliver of hope? The Euro control, a few EPS members and GEFS members get us some snow with the late week system. Obviously, they are all cold outliers but it's all we got before it looks like we flip warm.

The late January & early February warm spell has been in the signals for a while now but it is still depressing to see the models trend that way....

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12Z models look like they trend a bit colder, but still need surface cold. Still looks like 2-4" for the eastern Panhandle through far NW TX and Western OK. Along the Red River especially west of I-35 some could see up to a couple inches of slush if it comes down hard. North of I-30 there could be a fair bit of snow mixing in when the precip gets heavy. North of I-20 could see a lucky flake mixed in the heavy stuff.

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18Z GFS even cooler still. Keeps edging the accumulating line SE into DFW proper now.

18z is probably a best case scenario at this point? Taken verbatim, 0.3 falls across Collin, N. Dallas, and E. Denton counties with temps dropping into the mid 30s, 925 is borderline 0 with 850 up below

0. Maybe some minor accumulations on grassy areas?

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18z is probably a best case scenario at this point? Taken verbatim, 0.3 falls across Collin, N. Dallas, and E. Denton counties with temps dropping into the mid 30s, 925 is borderline 0 with 850 up below

0. Maybe some minor accumulations on grassy areas?

Yep that is my thinking, with that set-up I may could see a true R/S mix even this far east.

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18z GFS data in SHARpy spits out snow when "heaviest" precipitation is falling.

ETA: for Collin County

Awesome, there is still hope that this turns into a surprise few inches somewhere in DFW and it is even better for it to be on a Saturday.

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ABQ NWS had this in their discussion which I found interesting:

 

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE TYPE OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEKEND (DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING DUE TO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES) IS THOUGHT TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A POSITIVE/WARM ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION (AMO) AND THAT
A NEAR AVG HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW DOWNSTREAM OF AN EL
NINO INFLUENCED ERN PAC AND WRN CONUS FLOW DISRUPTS THE EFFECTS OF
EL NINO TEMPORARILY. AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW TRANSLATES EWD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE EL NINO INFLUENCED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
AND WRN CONUS WILL RETURN WITH DEEP TROUGHS/LOWS IMPACTING
CALIFORNIA AND THE SW U.S.

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Already down to 38/33 as of 10pm in Lindale.

Update: 35/31 as of 2am.

It will be interesting to see how much we warm this morning. Dewpoints will be near freezing make things very interesting. Model soundings are still trending colder.

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We actually warmed some before falling overnight and busted high for the overnight low. Beyond the outside shot at some wet flakes today, I don't see anything positive in the models, teleconnections or upcoming pattern.

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We actually warmed some before falling overnight and busted high for the overnight low. Beyond the outside shot at some wet flakes today, I don't see anything positive in the models, teleconnections or upcoming pattern.

I woke up to 43/36 so temps are about on track. Main thing for today is heavier rain to wet bulb temps into mid 30s. I have not even paid attention to longer range as I have not heard of anything worthwhile. I did see some start warming maybe that can help for late month and Feb.

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So much negativity in this thread with 1/2 the winter yet to come. I see benefits in the pattern change with big wrapped up 5H lows moving out of California across the Desert SW/New Mexico and inducing leeside cyclogenesis across West Texas/Panhandle as we move toward the end of January into February. Climo suggests our winter primetime is approaching.

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47/37 here with rain on radar but low levels still too dry for it. Looks like areas around WF are getting pretty good snow right now.

Yea, out driving kids to and from swim practice the sky was interesting. A nice mix of strong lift and dry air made for some cool looking cloud formations. I'm guessing the mid levels were drier than the models showed.

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So much negativity in this thread with 1/2 the winter yet to come. I see benefits in the pattern change with big wrapped up 5H lows moving out of California across the Desert SW/New Mexico and inducing leeside cyclogenesis across West Texas/Panhandle as we move toward the end of January into February. Climo suggests our winter primetime is approaching.

I hope we can salvage something out of the next 3 weeks but think we have to wait until after the 1st week of February. I would at least like some rain or storms but even that looks bleak right now. Big systems are coming into the West but the timing is still bad for us in N. Texas. East Texas and Louisiana look to do okay. A number of the analogs showed the potential for N. Texas to flip to below avg precipitation until March.

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12z GFS is just hideous! Less than 0.25" of rain and maybe only one or two more freezes at DFW this month. It really can't get much worse than that for the last two weeks of January. Oh, did I mention it has us in the 70s on February 1st!

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