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jaxjagman

Tn Valley March 4-6 Storm OBS

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Hey Jax, would you care posting that for JKL?  I'm curious to see what it shows.  Looks like a pretty decent sleet event followed by a good snow thump for my area.

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Hey Jax, would you care posting that for JKL?  I'm curious to see what it shows.  Looks like a pretty decent sleet event followed by a good snow thump for my area.

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Hey Jax, would you care posting that for JKL?  I'm curious to see what it shows.  Looks like a pretty decent sleet event followed by a good snow thump for my area.

 

Much appreciated!

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12z Euro clown:

 

lc5Jog0.jpg

 

Just looking at the 850mb and surface temps, that run of the Euro doesn't look very icy.  Perhaps there is a warm layer elsewhere that would cause it to be sleety, I don't know.

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I don't have fancy hi-res graphics here...just what we get from SV...but I would say there is a slight backing to the north and west on the 12z Euro vs the previous run. Lets hope that is not the start of a trend for the snow starved western TN Valley denizens.  The models keep pumping out the snow accumulations but the vertical profiles are on the edge...could be a big bonanza or more heartache....no way to tell at this stage, Jax....

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Well, the NWS has me under a flood watch from tommorow through thursday, for 1-4 inches of rain. Then the snow everyone keeps talking about looks like im right on the edge of around 6 ish if im reading the models correctly. Thursday night lows are going to be in the low single digits. Everything is going to freeze solid, going to be a lot of people sliding all over the place.

This is one storm i would actually like a more nw trend. Anyone think that will actually happen?

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I don't have fancy hi-res graphics here...just what we get from SV...but I would say there is a slight backing to the north and west on the 12z Euro vs the previous run. Lets hope that is not the start of a trend for the snow starved western TN Valley denizens.  The models keep pumping out the snow accumulations but the vertical profiles are on the edge...could be a big bonanza or more heartache....no way to tell at this stage, Jax....

thanks,i keep waiting on that key word "fail".It's what we've seen these last few years.

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I've not seen today's 12z Ukie yet, but its 0z jogged north and west again.  If I recall, it's 12z yesterday was its only run that moved south to match the Euro, it has otherwise been consistently north and west of all other models for several days.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN

234 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH

NOON THURSDAY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PLENTY OF

RAIN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY MIXED PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY SNOW

LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR MOST

OF THE REGION TOMORROW WILL FALL TO HIGHS IN THE 20S BY THURSDAY

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT PASSES

ON WEDNESDAY...PRECIP WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN...TO A MIX OF PRECIP

CONSISTING OF FREEZING RAIN SLEET AND SNOW...AND FINALLY TO ALL

SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SNOWFALL AND

SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH FREEZING

RAIN CAUSING ICE ACCUMULATION TO A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL. MAJOR

TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST

FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-031100-

/O.NEW.KOHX.WS.A.0003.150304T1800Z-150305T1800Z/

STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-

HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-

JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-

MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-

COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...

GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...ERIN...WAVERLY...

DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...

HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...

JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...

BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY...

SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...

MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...

LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI

234 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

THURSDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...FROM NOON CST WEDNESDAY THROUGH NOON CST THURSDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...WITH UP TO A

TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN.

* MAIN IMPACT...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL

CREATE MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE

DAY ON FRIDAY.

* OTHER IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY WHICH MAY EXTEND

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK

WEEK.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...WITH UP TO A

TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN.

* MAIN IMPACT...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL

CREATE MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE

DAY ON FRIDAY.

* OTHER IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY WHICH MAY EXTEND

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK

WEEK.

 

Obligatory

 

mSFXk2a.gif

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WPC write up from 20 minutes ago.

 

 

 

HOWEVER...THERE SEEMED TO BE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW GREATER THAN 4 INCHES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ON DAY 2 WITH A
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW. BY
DAY 3...AS PRECIPITATION AGAIN CHANGES FROM RAIN/MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW...AN AREA OF 4 TO 8 INCHES APPEARS TO BE
MODERATELY TO HIGHLY PROBABLE FROM THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEYS
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
COMBINED TOTALS COULD EXCEED 8 INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS ALSO
EXPECTED AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST
CHANCES OCCURRING ON DAY 2 OVER ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE
AND ON DAY 3 OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE.

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PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS...12Z ECMWF BLEND

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE REMNANT SHORTWAVE AS IT REACHES THE

CNTRL PLAINS EARLY TUE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT

EXTENDING WWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES HAVE CLOSED UP A BIT FROM THE 00Z

RUNS...BUT THEY STILL REMAIN. THE 12Z NAM/CANADIAN REMAIN

SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMPARED TO THE AGREEABLE 12Z

GFS/ECMWF. GIVEN THE CHANGES MADE BY THE GFS AND LITTLE CHANGE

SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AT THE SURFACE...THE TWO MODELS WERE IN PRETTY

GOOD AGREEMENT AND THEIR ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT HAD GOTTEN BETTER.

BEYOND TUE...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TAKES

OVER AND IMPACTS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE SOUTHEAST...DISCUSSED

IN THE NEXT SECTION.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE N-CNTRL U.S. TUE

EVENTUAL STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING THE SOUTHEAST THU MORNING

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 12Z NAM ACCELERATED THE AMPLIFYING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE

FEATURES THAT FORMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WED AND THE ASSOCIATED

SURFACE COLD...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS WAS STILL FASTER THAN THE NAM.

THIS DIFFERENCE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NEW ENGLAND PORTION OF

THE AREA BY WED. THE UKMET AND CMC FRONTS/PRESSURES LAGGED THE EC

BY A BIT BY 05/00Z...BUT THE DIFFERENCES WERE NOT PARTICULARLY

GREAT...AND THOSE MODELS LAGGED THE GFS. OVERALL...THERE WAS

LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE OUR EARLIER PREFERENCE.

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I bet tennesseewx.com is blowing up right now, may have to venture into the chat room later tonight and celebrate with the west TN boys if 0z holds.

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Yea,hope Nashville and surrounding area's get what they deserve..Sure has been a while..Look's like maybe more sleet than snow in my area..lol..Ready for gardening myself..Ready to plant some peas If the ground ever dries out..

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