Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion

[JakkelWx]

12 hours ago, AlexD1990 said:

Well fuck. Maybe the feb2 storm will be better....or maybe this one comes back. This really can be a fucking frustrating hobby sometimes 

Yeah the 12z euro has me considering driving and chasing to the heaviest snow and flipping off where Delaware is on the radar out of spite.

[AlexD1990]

5 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

I would give it until 0z tonight when more data is in to completely write off this event. 

not remotely writing it off, per se, but adjusting expectations downward quite a bit from Monday/Tuesday. should have known better than to get that invest that far out. 

As of right now, still think the floor for this is at least greater than 0", maybe higher than that, but ill let a pro chime in. 0z runs tonight will indeed be telling(hopefully) with the new upper air data.

[AlexD1990]

15 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

You aren't joking. Surface temps in the low-mid 20s with 0.1"/hr+ accretion rates will be a big problem in a hurry.

 

13 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I’m genuinely concerned now for your area. This could be really ugly. I know you know the at anytime temp is <28° during ZR, accretion processes are maximized. <25° is usually when you see the greatest ice storms occur and it could very well be that way over your area back into VA. 

@csnavywx @MillvilleWx is there also any sort of legitimate icing threat on the Delmarva, or is it more of a sleet issue? 

[csnavywx]

18Z GFS is exactly the kind of scenario we need. Screw up that phase and prevent the cut.

[SnowtoRain]

2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

18Z GFS is exactly the kind of scenario we need. Screw up that phase and prevent the cut.

Just pulls us right back in. 0z tonight should set expectations 

[AlexD1990]

12 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

18Z GFS is exactly the kind of scenario we need. Screw up that phase and prevent the cut.

Beautiful to see. Really really hope some of the 0z suite follows suit, hopefully with the new data..

[Lowershoresadness]

12 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Beautiful to see. Really really hope some of the 0z suite follows suit, hopefully with the new data..

alex what's the latest maps wise?

[Lowershoresadness]

29 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

18Z GFS is exactly the kind of scenario we need. Screw up that phase and prevent the cut.

you have my attention

[AlexD1990]

34 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

alex what's the latest maps wise?

Snow maps? I can snag one from the main thread

[AlexD1990]

42 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

alex what's the latest maps wise?

Gfs kuchera 

[AlexD1990]

Latest NBM

[SnowtoRain]

Euro said break out your ice skates. Looks like we are in for a text book Delmarvalicious winter event, 4 to 8" followed by unforgiving sleet and freezing rain. Its been awhile. We have been lucky recently to have some nice pure powder events so time to enjoy this storm and every winter p-type possible.  

 

[IronTy]

Does anybody know of any ancient Native American dances used to ward off phasing?  

[AlexD1990]

This thread has now been around for 11 years. Lol wow.

[AlexD1990]

Anyway, even the amped ICON has at least 3-5" for the entire Delmarva. That's a very respectable floor for any kind of winter storm for this area. Reframing my expectations for this one, and hoping for no significant ice accretion.

[SnowtoRain]

NAM and RGEM have a nice front end but then again mesos at range don't really mean too much

[SnowtoRain]

Euro gets most of us above freezing for a period, everything else the same. 4 to 8" snow, to sleet, freezing rain, and then rain briefly. GFS is similar but stays a bit colder.

@CAPEand @csnavywx, you all seeing anything different?

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

Euro gets most of us above freezing for a period, everything else the same. 4 to 8" snow, to sleet, freezing rain, and then rain briefly. GFS is similar but stays a bit colder.

@CAPEand @csnavywx, you all seeing anything different?

The Euro has a crazy amount for ice for our area, which literally never happens, so I think its wrong there- probably more sleet,  some ice, then plain rain. GFS is as good as it gets for us I think- stays below freezing here, a period of sleet, then back to snow. It would be something like 8-12". Euro is hard to say because the changeover will likely be sooner, so maybe 5-8"? Then a lot of sleet and some ice on top of that. When the real deal cold comes back in we are gonna have a glacier- at least there wont be  blowing and drifting of snow onto the roads in the days that follow.

[CAPE]

The 6z Euro Backed off the ice for our area, so more plain rain, which is what I expected. Has us in the mid 30s. Last run it only got to 29 at my location.

[CAPE]

The CMC is warmer- gets us near 40 with a lot of rain. Pure slop at the end if that thing is right.

[SnowtoRain]

29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The CMC is warmer- gets us near 40 with a lot of rain. Pure slop at the end if that thing is right.

Gross, we need the rain though. Based on the Euro and GFS trends I think we know where this is headed now. Marginal warning level event, better odds to be on the low end of the guidance. 

[AlexD1990]

Beyond disappointed with the trends on this one, given what was being shown 2 days ago. will still enjoy what falls, hope for less freezing rain, and the upside is it does stick around for a while. Will continue to hope that the afternoon models trend colder.

[AlexD1990]

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

 

latest briefing from PHI. High-impact storm, no matter what.

[csnavywx]

Run to run variability has calmed down since 00Z last night and while I think we get a bit more adjustment south/slower, it's probably not going to be enough to save the eastern shore from changing over to all rain at this point. Enjoy the front-end thump, it'll probably only last a few hours before flipping to sleet and (briefly) ZR. Inshore is going to have a rough time of it, especially immediately away from the Bay. Hopefully we get near or just above freezing here late Sunday and at least pause the icing before it starts back up overnight.

3-6" Eastern Shore + 1" sleet, then brief freezing rain to rain; DE side will get more snow (add an inch or two) before changeover to sleet.

4-9" inshore southern MD, + 1" sleet, then 0.25-0.75" ZR

A band of heavy convective rain showers is looking increasingly possible overnight Sunday into early Monday morning. If the coastal has developed sufficiently, then northwest flow should advect the remaining CAD wedge back into the inshore area and result in some additional quick accretion of ZR overnight.

Am a bit concerned about some freezing drizzle and/or light snow on Monday ahead of the big upper trough. Still some moisture left below 700mb after the dry slot comes through.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I don’t think I’m beating my snow total from Jan. 6 last year (11.6”). We’re on the wrong side of this like Feb. 2014 I think.

[SnowtoRain]

12 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I don’t think I’m beating my snow total from Jan. 6 last year (11.6”). We’re on the wrong side of this like Feb. 2014 I think.

Yeah, last year's events were near perfect.