Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion

[JakkelWx]

12 hours ago, AlexD1990 said:

Well fuck. Maybe the feb2 storm will be better....or maybe this one comes back. This really can be a fucking frustrating hobby sometimes 

Yeah the 12z euro has me considering driving and chasing to the heaviest snow and flipping off where Delaware is on the radar out of spite.

[AlexD1990]

5 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

I would give it until 0z tonight when more data is in to completely write off this event. 

not remotely writing it off, per se, but adjusting expectations downward quite a bit from Monday/Tuesday. should have known better than to get that invest that far out. 

As of right now, still think the floor for this is at least greater than 0", maybe higher than that, but ill let a pro chime in. 0z runs tonight will indeed be telling(hopefully) with the new upper air data.

[AlexD1990]

15 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

You aren't joking. Surface temps in the low-mid 20s with 0.1"/hr+ accretion rates will be a big problem in a hurry.

 

13 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I’m genuinely concerned now for your area. This could be really ugly. I know you know the at anytime temp is <28° during ZR, accretion processes are maximized. <25° is usually when you see the greatest ice storms occur and it could very well be that way over your area back into VA. 

@csnavywx @MillvilleWx is there also any sort of legitimate icing threat on the Delmarva, or is it more of a sleet issue? 

[csnavywx]

18Z GFS is exactly the kind of scenario we need. Screw up that phase and prevent the cut.

[SnowtoRain]

2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

18Z GFS is exactly the kind of scenario we need. Screw up that phase and prevent the cut.

Just pulls us right back in. 0z tonight should set expectations 

[AlexD1990]

12 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

18Z GFS is exactly the kind of scenario we need. Screw up that phase and prevent the cut.

Beautiful to see. Really really hope some of the 0z suite follows suit, hopefully with the new data..

[Lowershoresadness]

12 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Beautiful to see. Really really hope some of the 0z suite follows suit, hopefully with the new data..

alex what's the latest maps wise?

[Lowershoresadness]

29 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

18Z GFS is exactly the kind of scenario we need. Screw up that phase and prevent the cut.

you have my attention